WWIII.REPORT

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ISRAEL – HEZBOLLAH, HAMAS

48 ENTRIES · 1978 – TODAY

Every recorded development, newest first. Entries carrying a score are this tracker's own assessments; the rest are the canonical record — verified history, each entry citing its source.

  1. 2026-08-15 PM

    Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.

    On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.

  2. 2026-08-13 AM

    Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.

    Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.

  3. 2026-08-12 PM

    Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull

    The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.

  4. 2026-08-12 PM

    Israeli forces conduct airstrikes in southern Lebanon as Lebanese army expands operations.

    The IDF carried out strikes against targets in southern Lebanon while the Lebanese Armed Forces continued operating in designated pilot zones. The strikes occurred as international discussions considered the UK and Italy to monitor Hezbollah disarmament.

  5. 2026-08-12 PM

    Israel conducts targeted Gaza airstrike and reported southern Lebanon strikes testing ceasefires.

    Israeli forces carried out an airstrike in Gaza targeting a Hamas commander, marking the first strike in over a week. Concurrently, localized military activity and reported strikes in southern Lebanon continue to test international ceasefire arrangements.

  6. 2026-08-12 PM

    United States announces new round of Lebanon-Israel talks in Rome for September

    United States diplomatic officials announced that a new round of high-level trilateral negotiations between Israeli and Lebanese representatives will take place in Rome in September. The talks aim to address unresolved security arrangements and border zone disputes amid ongoing localized violations.

  7. 2026-08-12 AM

    Israel and Lebanon advance Washington diplomatic talks amid sporadic southern Lebanese strikes.

  8. 2026-08-05

    Recovery support expands amid an incompletely stabilized south Lebanon

    UNIFIL described continuing support to communities affected by the recent conflict. The June framework and reduced violence are the diplomatic and operational baseline, but continuing violations, recovery needs, and unresolved security obligations mean that final peace and full implementation are not established.

    UNIFIL support for vulnerable communities, 5 August 2026 · UNIFIL current mission and news page

  9. 2026-07-16

    UNIFIL reports reduced violence but continuing violations

    UNIFIL reported a reduction in violence in recent weeks that allowed expanded peacekeeping and community support, while noting that violations of Resolution 1701 continued. The correct formulation is reduced violence, not zero violence or completed peace.

    UNIFIL — As violence declines, peacekeepers step up support

  10. 2026-06-26

    United States, Israel and Lebanon sign a Trilateral Framework

    The United States, Israel, and Lebanon signed a framework expressing goals of ending conflict, ensuring sovereignty and security, and establishing peaceful neighborly relations through future agreements. It is a framework, not a final peace treaty, and its commitments require separate implementation evidence.

    Full Trilateral Framework text · U.S. Department of State signing announcement

  11. 2026-06-04

    UNIFIL peacekeeper dies after mortar shells hit a position

    A Serbian UNIFIL peacekeeper died from injuries after mortar shells struck a position near Marjayoun, and two others were injured. UNIFIL opened an investigation. Do not assign responsibility without a later finding.

    UNIFIL statement, 4 June 2026 · Security Council statement on the Serbian peacekeeper

  12. 2026-06-03

    Israel and Lebanon agree to implement a ceasefire

    A U.S.-facilitated joint statement said Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire contingent on a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and evacuation of Hezbollah operatives from the South Litani Sector. Record the conditions as commitments; do not mark them fulfilled without verification.

    U.S.-Lebanon-Israel joint statement, 3 June 2026

  13. 2026-05-14 to 2026-05-15

    Israel and Lebanon agree a framework for further negotiations

    United States-facilitated talks produced an agreed framework for political and security negotiations, including sovereignty, territorial integrity, and border security. The framework was a process agreement, not a completed peace settlement.

    U.S. Department of State — May Israel-Lebanon meetings

  14. 2026-04-16

    Israel and Lebanon agree an initial ten-day cessation of hostilities

    Israel and Lebanon agreed to an initial ten-day cessation intended to enable negotiations. Hezbollah was a principal armed actor but not the state signatory named in the agreement. Record any extension, violation, or participation claim separately.

    U.S. Department of State — Ten Day Cessation of Hostilities

  15. 2026-04-14

    United States convenes high-level Israel-Lebanon engagement

    The United States convened senior Israeli and Lebanese representatives and described the meeting as the first major high-level engagement between the two governments since 1993. A meeting is not recognition, a peace treaty, or an implemented security agreement.

    U.S. Department of State — meeting between the United States, Lebanon and Israel

  16. 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30

    Three UNIFIL peacekeepers die in two incidents

    Three Indonesian UNIFIL peacekeepers died after explosions at a position and a logistics convoy on consecutive days. UNIFIL and the Security Council condemned the incidents; the cited records did not establish a perpetrator.

    UNIFIL statement, 30 March 2026 · Security Council press statement on the three peacekeepers

  17. 2026-03-18

    UNIFIL reports further deterioration and increased Israeli presence inside Lebanon

    UNIFIL reported heavy exchanges, intensified air and ground activity, and an increased Israeli-force presence inside Lebanese territory. Treat this as a dated observation, not a permanent map of control.

    UNIFIL statement, 18 March 2026

  18. 2026-03-12

    UNIFIL records a major cross-Blue-Line exchange

    UNIFIL detected more than 120 projectiles launched from Lebanese territory and extensive Israeli air and artillery response. UNIFIL characterized the acts as serious violations of Resolution 1701; do not attribute every Lebanese projectile to Hezbollah unless a source does so.

    UNIFIL statement, 12 March 2026

  19. 2026-03-04

    Evacuation demand and military activity expand across southern Lebanon

    UNIFIL reported an Israeli demand for civilians in its area of operations to move north of the Litani, new rocket fire from Lebanon, Israeli strikes, and Israeli military activity at multiple locations. Do not describe all territory south of the Litani as evacuated or controlled without current evidence.

    UNIFIL statement, 4 March 2026

  20. 2026-03-02 onward

    Large-scale Israel-Hezbollah hostilities resume

    Renewed hostilities began on 2 March. UNIFIL recorded Hezbollah-claimed rockets and missiles into Israel, Israeli airstrikes and firing, air violations, and Israeli ground crossings or retained positions inside Lebanon. Record each incident and attribution separately.

    UNIFIL statement, 3 March 2026 · UNIFIL remembrance statement dating renewed hostilities to 2 March

  21. 2025-08-28

    Security Council gives UNIFIL a final mandate extension through 2026

    Resolution 2790 extended UNIFIL's mandate for a final period through 31 December 2026 and called for full implementation of Resolution 1701 and the cessation arrangement. The scheduled future drawdown must not be described as already completed.

    UNIFIL summary of Security Council Resolution 2790 · UNIFIL mandate page

  22. 2025-02-18

    Withdrawal and Lebanese deployment deadline passes with incomplete implementation

    The deadline envisaged for Israeli withdrawal south of the Blue Line and parallel Lebanese Armed Forces deployment passed. UN officials reported progress but continuing Israeli presence in Lebanese areas and incomplete deployment in affected locations.

    UN Special Coordinator and UNIFIL joint statement, 18 February 2025 · UNIFIL-LAF patrol and deployment update

  23. 2024-11-27

    Israel-Lebanon cessation of hostilities takes effect

    A United States- and France-supported cessation arrangement took effect, with recommitment to Resolution 1701, Israeli withdrawal, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, and a monitoring mechanism. Do not call it a peace treaty or assume every obligation was completed.

    UNIFIL statement welcoming the cessation, 27 November 2024 · UNIFIL retrospective on the cessation arrangement

  24. 2024-10-29

    Rocket hits UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura

    A rocket struck UNIFIL headquarters and caused minor injuries. UNIFIL assessed that it was likely fired by Hezbollah or an affiliated group; preserve "likely" and do not upgrade the assessment to certainty.

    UNIFIL statement, 29 October 2024

  25. 2024-10-13

    Israeli tanks forcibly enter a UNIFIL position

    UNIFIL reported that Israeli tanks destroyed the gate and entered its Ramyah position before leaving. Record the mission's observation as the competent source for the incident.

    UNIFIL statement, 13 October 2024

  26. 2024-10-10

    UNIFIL positions are affected during Israeli incursions and exchanges

    UNIFIL reported Israeli incursions, damage, and injuries at or near peacekeeping positions amid continuing rocket fire from Lebanon and Israeli strikes. Attribute individual incidents precisely; do not collapse all attacks on UNIFIL into one perpetrator category.

    UNIFIL statement, 10 October 2024

  27. 2024-10-01 onward

    Israeli ground operations begin inside southern Lebanon

    Israeli forces began ground incursions and operations in southern Lebanon. Record entry, temporary presence, withdrawal, and retained positions separately; do not infer permanent control from a dated incursion.

    UN Secretary-General report S/2024/817 · UNIFIL statement on ground clashes, 25 October 2024

  28. 2024-09-27

    Israeli strike kills Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah

    An Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed Hassan Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders. Do not infer that the organization ceased to function; leadership succession and operational effects require separate evidence.

    U.S. National Counterterrorism Center — Lebanese Hizballah profile · UN Secretary-General report S/2024/817

  29. 2024-09-23 onward

    Israel launches a broad air campaign across Lebanon

    Israel sharply expanded airstrikes across Lebanon while Hezbollah increased rocket, missile, and drone fire toward Israel. Casualties and displacement rose rapidly. Record each side's target and damage claims with attribution.

    UN Secretary-General remarks to the Security Council, 25 September 2024 · UN Lebanon joint statement on the one-year escalation

  30. 2024-09-20

    Israeli strike kills Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil and others in Beirut

    An Israeli strike in Beirut killed senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil and other members, alongside civilian casualties. Preserve source-specific casualty and target descriptions.

    UN Secretary-General report S/2024/817

  31. 2024-09-17 to 2024-09-18

    Pagers and hand-held radios explode across Lebanon

    Large numbers of communication devices used by Hezbollah members exploded across Lebanon and in Syria, killing and injuring people including civilians. The cited UN records describe the explosions and harm; do not state operational responsibility as settled without a competent source.

    UN Secretary-General statement on the device explosions · UN Human Rights statement on explosions across Lebanon and Syria

  32. 2024-07-30

    Israeli strike in Beirut kills senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr

    An Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr. Israel described the strike as a response to Majdal Shams; that rationale should remain attributed.

    UN Secretary-General report S/2024/817

  33. 2024-07-27

    Strike kills 12 children and teenagers in Majdal Shams

    A projectile strike killed 12 children and teenagers in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan. Israel attributed the strike to Hezbollah; Hezbollah denied responsibility. Preserve the attribution dispute unless later independent evidence resolves it.

    UN Secretary-General report S/2024/817

  34. 2023-10-08

    Cross-border fire opens the Israel-Hezbollah front after 7 October

    UNIFIL detected rockets fired from southeast Lebanon and Israeli artillery response. Hezbollah later framed its attacks as support for Gaza. Record the first observed exchange separately from claims about strategic purpose.

    UNIFIL statement on rocket and return fire, 8 October 2023

  35. October 2023 to June 2024

    Near-daily exchanges and mass displacement become entrenched

    Hezbollah and other armed groups launched rockets, anti-tank missiles, drones, and other fire; Israel conducted artillery, air, and other strikes in Lebanon. Civilians on both sides were killed or injured and tens of thousands were displaced. Resolution 1701 violations accumulated.

    UN Secretary-General report on Resolution 1701, February 2024 · UN Secretary-General report covering March-June 2024

  36. 2022-10-27

    Israel and Lebanon finalize a maritime boundary arrangement

    Israel and Lebanon brought a United States-mediated maritime boundary arrangement into effect. It addressed maritime delimitation and offshore resources; it did not establish a land border or a peace treaty.

    U.S. Department of State — historic Israel-Lebanon maritime boundary agreement · UNIFIL FAQ on the signing ceremony and Blue Line

  37. 2021-08-06

    Rockets from Lebanon and Israeli return fire raise Blue Line tensions

    UNIFIL recorded rockets fired from Lebanon and Israeli artillery response. Hezbollah publicly claimed some launches; preserve the distinction between UNIFIL's observation and the organization's claim.

    UNIFIL statement on rocket and return fire, 6 August 2021

  38. December 2018 to January 2019

    UNIFIL confirms tunnels crossing the Blue Line

    After Israel announced an operation to expose tunnels, UNIFIL confirmed multiple tunnels and determined that some crossed the Blue Line from Lebanon into Israel, constituting violations of Resolution 1701. Attribute ownership or operational purpose only to sources that establish it.

    UNIFIL statement confirming tunnels along the Blue Line · UNIFIL confirmation of a third cross-Blue-Line tunnel

  39. 2015-01-28

    Hezbollah attacks Israeli patrol in the Shebaa Farms area

    Hezbollah attacked an Israeli military convoy in the Shebaa Farms area, killing Israeli soldiers, and Israel returned fire. Use source-specific wording for the territorial status of the area and do not treat the incident as a mutually agreed border event.

    UN Secretary-General report on implementation of Resolution 1701

  40. 2008-07-16

    Israel and Hezbollah conduct prisoner and remains exchange

    Hezbollah transferred the remains of the two Israeli soldiers captured in 2006, and Israel released Lebanese prisoners and transferred remains under an exchange agreement.

    UN News report on the Israel-Hezbollah exchange

  41. 2006-08-14

    Cessation of hostilities takes effect

    The 2006 cessation of hostilities took effect. Lebanese Armed Forces and expanded UNIFIL deployments followed while Israeli forces withdrew in stages. The arrangement reduced large-scale fighting but did not fully implement every provision of Resolution 1701.

    UN report on implementation after the cessation of hostilities

  42. 2006-08-11

    Security Council adopts Resolution 1701

    Resolution 1701 called for a full cessation of hostilities, Israeli withdrawal in parallel with Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, no armed personnel or weapons in the area between the Blue Line and Litani River other than those of the Lebanese State and UNIFIL, and implementation of earlier disarmament provisions.

    UN Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006)

  43. 2006-07-12

    Hezbollah cross-border attack triggers the 2006 war

    Hezbollah fighters crossed the Blue Line, attacked Israeli forces, killed soldiers, and captured two soldiers. Israel responded with large-scale military operations in Lebanon, beginning a 34-day war.

    UN Secretary-General report on the 12 July attack and ensuing conflict

  44. 2004-09-02

    Security Council adopts Resolution 1559

    Resolution 1559 called for the disbanding and disarmament of Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias and for extension of Lebanese Government control throughout the country. Adoption did not disarm Hezbollah.

    UN Security Council Resolution 1559 (2004)

  45. 2000-05-24 to 2000-06-16

    Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon and the UN identifies the Blue Line

    Israel withdrew its forces from southern Lebanon, and the United Nations verified withdrawal against a line identified for that purpose. The Blue Line is a UN line of withdrawal, not an agreed international border, and is without prejudice to future border arrangements.

    UN Secretary-General report verifying Israeli withdrawal · UN geospatial page on the withdrawal line

  46. 1992

    Hassan Nasrallah becomes Hezbollah secretary-general

    Hassan Nasrallah became Hezbollah's secretary-general in 1992 and remained the organization's dominant leader until his death in an Israeli strike in September 2024.

    U.S. National Counterterrorism Center — Hizballah profile

  47. 1982 onward

    Israel invades Lebanon and Hezbollah emerges

    Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982. Hezbollah emerged in that wartime context as a Lebanese Shia Islamist movement and armed organization with Iranian support. This is the beginning of the Hezbollah-specific timeline, not the beginning of Israel-Lebanon conflict.

    U.S. National Counterterrorism Center — Hizballah profile · UNIFIL background

  48. 1978-03-19

    Security Council establishes UNIFIL after Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon

    Following Israel's 1978 invasion of Lebanon, the Security Council established UNIFIL through Resolutions 425 and 426 to confirm Israeli withdrawal, restore international peace and security, and assist the Lebanese Government in restoring authority in the area.

    UNIFIL background · UNIFIL mandate

— BEGINNING OF RECORD —

CONFLICT SIGNALS
Direction
Escalating (+6.4 / 7d)
Severity
Extreme (73 / 100)
Connections
Moderate (~4 of 8)
Cascade
Moderate (#6 of 9)
How this was measured
Factor · weightGrade 0–100 · vs prev run
Internationalization18% 10
Ground combat16% 22
Standoff strikes14% 38
Nuclear escalation12% 0 ▼ -12
Mobilization12% 45
Crisis control10% 48
Territorial control8% 45
Geographic spillover7% 39
Infrastructure3% 30
Events weighed
  • ▲ 4.4 limited state strike · unverified
  • ▲ 2 limited state strike · unverified
WAR INDEX TREND
4673
LOCATOR
BELLIGERENTS
  • ISR FightingNuclear-armed — about 90 warheads
  • US Supplying weaponsBacking a party politically or materiallyNuclear-armed — about 5,042 warheads
  • HMS Rockets / short-range artilleryDe facto governance (contested)
  • HZB Precision-guided missile / cruise / UAVSubstantial (south Lebanon, Beqaa)
  • PIJ Rockets / short-range artillery
  • IRN Backing a party politically or materially
  • WBB
  • AMB
  • AML
On neither side
  • DFL
  • PFL
  • LBN Territory the fighting crosses
  • PSE Territory the fighting crosses
  • EGY MediatingTerritory the fighting crosses
  • QAT Mediating
CONFLICT NEWS TREND
CONNECTED THEATERS
  1. PSE → ISR · ISRAEL-LEVANT ↔ TURKEY-EASTMED
    August 16, 2026 | - IMEMC News266 sources
  2. SYR → ISR · ISRAEL-LEVANT ↔ TURKEY-EASTMED
    Israeli forces enter Syria’s Quneitra countryside, raid homes11 sources
  3. TUR → ISR · ISRAEL-LEVANT ↔ RUSSIA-NATO
    Armenian Genocide survivors' grandson says 'political motives' block recognition - AOL8 sources