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ISRAEL – HEZBOLLAH, HAMAS
48 ENTRIES · 1978 – TODAYEvery recorded development, newest first. Entries carrying a score are this tracker's own assessments; the rest are the canonical record — verified history, each entry citing its source.
- 2026-08-15 PM
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
- 2026-08-13 AM
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12 PM
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
- 2026-08-12 PM
Israeli forces conduct airstrikes in southern Lebanon as Lebanese army expands operations.
The IDF carried out strikes against targets in southern Lebanon while the Lebanese Armed Forces continued operating in designated pilot zones. The strikes occurred as international discussions considered the UK and Italy to monitor Hezbollah disarmament.
- 2026-08-12 PM
Israel conducts targeted Gaza airstrike and reported southern Lebanon strikes testing ceasefires.
Israeli forces carried out an airstrike in Gaza targeting a Hamas commander, marking the first strike in over a week. Concurrently, localized military activity and reported strikes in southern Lebanon continue to test international ceasefire arrangements.
- 2026-08-12 PM
United States announces new round of Lebanon-Israel talks in Rome for September
United States diplomatic officials announced that a new round of high-level trilateral negotiations between Israeli and Lebanese representatives will take place in Rome in September. The talks aim to address unresolved security arrangements and border zone disputes amid ongoing localized violations.
- 2026-08-12 AM
Israel and Lebanon advance Washington diplomatic talks amid sporadic southern Lebanese strikes.
- 2026-08-05
Recovery support expands amid an incompletely stabilized south Lebanon
UNIFIL described continuing support to communities affected by the recent conflict. The June framework and reduced violence are the diplomatic and operational baseline, but continuing violations, recovery needs, and unresolved security obligations mean that final peace and full implementation are not established.
UNIFIL support for vulnerable communities, 5 August 2026 · UNIFIL current mission and news page
- 2026-07-16
UNIFIL reports reduced violence but continuing violations
UNIFIL reported a reduction in violence in recent weeks that allowed expanded peacekeeping and community support, while noting that violations of Resolution 1701 continued. The correct formulation is reduced violence, not zero violence or completed peace.
- 2026-06-26
United States, Israel and Lebanon sign a Trilateral Framework
The United States, Israel, and Lebanon signed a framework expressing goals of ending conflict, ensuring sovereignty and security, and establishing peaceful neighborly relations through future agreements. It is a framework, not a final peace treaty, and its commitments require separate implementation evidence.
Full Trilateral Framework text · U.S. Department of State signing announcement
- 2026-06-04
UNIFIL peacekeeper dies after mortar shells hit a position
A Serbian UNIFIL peacekeeper died from injuries after mortar shells struck a position near Marjayoun, and two others were injured. UNIFIL opened an investigation. Do not assign responsibility without a later finding.
UNIFIL statement, 4 June 2026 · Security Council statement on the Serbian peacekeeper
- 2026-06-03
Israel and Lebanon agree to implement a ceasefire
A U.S.-facilitated joint statement said Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire contingent on a complete cessation of Hezbollah fire and evacuation of Hezbollah operatives from the South Litani Sector. Record the conditions as commitments; do not mark them fulfilled without verification.
- 2026-05-14 to 2026-05-15
Israel and Lebanon agree a framework for further negotiations
United States-facilitated talks produced an agreed framework for political and security negotiations, including sovereignty, territorial integrity, and border security. The framework was a process agreement, not a completed peace settlement.
- 2026-04-16
Israel and Lebanon agree an initial ten-day cessation of hostilities
Israel and Lebanon agreed to an initial ten-day cessation intended to enable negotiations. Hezbollah was a principal armed actor but not the state signatory named in the agreement. Record any extension, violation, or participation claim separately.
- 2026-04-14
United States convenes high-level Israel-Lebanon engagement
The United States convened senior Israeli and Lebanese representatives and described the meeting as the first major high-level engagement between the two governments since 1993. A meeting is not recognition, a peace treaty, or an implemented security agreement.
U.S. Department of State — meeting between the United States, Lebanon and Israel
- 2026-03-29 to 2026-03-30
Three UNIFIL peacekeepers die in two incidents
Three Indonesian UNIFIL peacekeepers died after explosions at a position and a logistics convoy on consecutive days. UNIFIL and the Security Council condemned the incidents; the cited records did not establish a perpetrator.
UNIFIL statement, 30 March 2026 · Security Council press statement on the three peacekeepers
- 2026-03-18
UNIFIL reports further deterioration and increased Israeli presence inside Lebanon
UNIFIL reported heavy exchanges, intensified air and ground activity, and an increased Israeli-force presence inside Lebanese territory. Treat this as a dated observation, not a permanent map of control.
- 2026-03-12
UNIFIL records a major cross-Blue-Line exchange
UNIFIL detected more than 120 projectiles launched from Lebanese territory and extensive Israeli air and artillery response. UNIFIL characterized the acts as serious violations of Resolution 1701; do not attribute every Lebanese projectile to Hezbollah unless a source does so.
- 2026-03-04
Evacuation demand and military activity expand across southern Lebanon
UNIFIL reported an Israeli demand for civilians in its area of operations to move north of the Litani, new rocket fire from Lebanon, Israeli strikes, and Israeli military activity at multiple locations. Do not describe all territory south of the Litani as evacuated or controlled without current evidence.
- 2026-03-02 onward
Large-scale Israel-Hezbollah hostilities resume
Renewed hostilities began on 2 March. UNIFIL recorded Hezbollah-claimed rockets and missiles into Israel, Israeli airstrikes and firing, air violations, and Israeli ground crossings or retained positions inside Lebanon. Record each incident and attribution separately.
UNIFIL statement, 3 March 2026 · UNIFIL remembrance statement dating renewed hostilities to 2 March
- 2025-08-28
Security Council gives UNIFIL a final mandate extension through 2026
Resolution 2790 extended UNIFIL's mandate for a final period through 31 December 2026 and called for full implementation of Resolution 1701 and the cessation arrangement. The scheduled future drawdown must not be described as already completed.
UNIFIL summary of Security Council Resolution 2790 · UNIFIL mandate page
- 2025-02-18
Withdrawal and Lebanese deployment deadline passes with incomplete implementation
The deadline envisaged for Israeli withdrawal south of the Blue Line and parallel Lebanese Armed Forces deployment passed. UN officials reported progress but continuing Israeli presence in Lebanese areas and incomplete deployment in affected locations.
UN Special Coordinator and UNIFIL joint statement, 18 February 2025 · UNIFIL-LAF patrol and deployment update
- 2024-11-27
Israel-Lebanon cessation of hostilities takes effect
A United States- and France-supported cessation arrangement took effect, with recommitment to Resolution 1701, Israeli withdrawal, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, and a monitoring mechanism. Do not call it a peace treaty or assume every obligation was completed.
UNIFIL statement welcoming the cessation, 27 November 2024 · UNIFIL retrospective on the cessation arrangement
- 2024-10-29
Rocket hits UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura
A rocket struck UNIFIL headquarters and caused minor injuries. UNIFIL assessed that it was likely fired by Hezbollah or an affiliated group; preserve "likely" and do not upgrade the assessment to certainty.
- 2024-10-13
Israeli tanks forcibly enter a UNIFIL position
UNIFIL reported that Israeli tanks destroyed the gate and entered its Ramyah position before leaving. Record the mission's observation as the competent source for the incident.
- 2024-10-10
UNIFIL positions are affected during Israeli incursions and exchanges
UNIFIL reported Israeli incursions, damage, and injuries at or near peacekeeping positions amid continuing rocket fire from Lebanon and Israeli strikes. Attribute individual incidents precisely; do not collapse all attacks on UNIFIL into one perpetrator category.
- 2024-10-01 onward
Israeli ground operations begin inside southern Lebanon
Israeli forces began ground incursions and operations in southern Lebanon. Record entry, temporary presence, withdrawal, and retained positions separately; do not infer permanent control from a dated incursion.
UN Secretary-General report S/2024/817 · UNIFIL statement on ground clashes, 25 October 2024
- 2024-09-27
Israeli strike kills Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah
An Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed Hassan Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders. Do not infer that the organization ceased to function; leadership succession and operational effects require separate evidence.
U.S. National Counterterrorism Center — Lebanese Hizballah profile · UN Secretary-General report S/2024/817
- 2024-09-23 onward
Israel launches a broad air campaign across Lebanon
Israel sharply expanded airstrikes across Lebanon while Hezbollah increased rocket, missile, and drone fire toward Israel. Casualties and displacement rose rapidly. Record each side's target and damage claims with attribution.
UN Secretary-General remarks to the Security Council, 25 September 2024 · UN Lebanon joint statement on the one-year escalation
- 2024-09-20
Israeli strike kills Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil and others in Beirut
An Israeli strike in Beirut killed senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil and other members, alongside civilian casualties. Preserve source-specific casualty and target descriptions.
- 2024-09-17 to 2024-09-18
Pagers and hand-held radios explode across Lebanon
Large numbers of communication devices used by Hezbollah members exploded across Lebanon and in Syria, killing and injuring people including civilians. The cited UN records describe the explosions and harm; do not state operational responsibility as settled without a competent source.
UN Secretary-General statement on the device explosions · UN Human Rights statement on explosions across Lebanon and Syria
- 2024-07-30
Israeli strike in Beirut kills senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr
An Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr. Israel described the strike as a response to Majdal Shams; that rationale should remain attributed.
- 2024-07-27
Strike kills 12 children and teenagers in Majdal Shams
A projectile strike killed 12 children and teenagers in Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan. Israel attributed the strike to Hezbollah; Hezbollah denied responsibility. Preserve the attribution dispute unless later independent evidence resolves it.
- 2023-10-08
Cross-border fire opens the Israel-Hezbollah front after 7 October
UNIFIL detected rockets fired from southeast Lebanon and Israeli artillery response. Hezbollah later framed its attacks as support for Gaza. Record the first observed exchange separately from claims about strategic purpose.
- October 2023 to June 2024
Near-daily exchanges and mass displacement become entrenched
Hezbollah and other armed groups launched rockets, anti-tank missiles, drones, and other fire; Israel conducted artillery, air, and other strikes in Lebanon. Civilians on both sides were killed or injured and tens of thousands were displaced. Resolution 1701 violations accumulated.
UN Secretary-General report on Resolution 1701, February 2024 · UN Secretary-General report covering March-June 2024
- 2022-10-27
Israel and Lebanon finalize a maritime boundary arrangement
Israel and Lebanon brought a United States-mediated maritime boundary arrangement into effect. It addressed maritime delimitation and offshore resources; it did not establish a land border or a peace treaty.
U.S. Department of State — historic Israel-Lebanon maritime boundary agreement · UNIFIL FAQ on the signing ceremony and Blue Line
- 2021-08-06
Rockets from Lebanon and Israeli return fire raise Blue Line tensions
UNIFIL recorded rockets fired from Lebanon and Israeli artillery response. Hezbollah publicly claimed some launches; preserve the distinction between UNIFIL's observation and the organization's claim.
- December 2018 to January 2019
UNIFIL confirms tunnels crossing the Blue Line
After Israel announced an operation to expose tunnels, UNIFIL confirmed multiple tunnels and determined that some crossed the Blue Line from Lebanon into Israel, constituting violations of Resolution 1701. Attribute ownership or operational purpose only to sources that establish it.
UNIFIL statement confirming tunnels along the Blue Line · UNIFIL confirmation of a third cross-Blue-Line tunnel
- 2015-01-28
Hezbollah attacks Israeli patrol in the Shebaa Farms area
Hezbollah attacked an Israeli military convoy in the Shebaa Farms area, killing Israeli soldiers, and Israel returned fire. Use source-specific wording for the territorial status of the area and do not treat the incident as a mutually agreed border event.
UN Secretary-General report on implementation of Resolution 1701
- 2008-07-16
Israel and Hezbollah conduct prisoner and remains exchange
Hezbollah transferred the remains of the two Israeli soldiers captured in 2006, and Israel released Lebanese prisoners and transferred remains under an exchange agreement.
- 2006-08-14
Cessation of hostilities takes effect
The 2006 cessation of hostilities took effect. Lebanese Armed Forces and expanded UNIFIL deployments followed while Israeli forces withdrew in stages. The arrangement reduced large-scale fighting but did not fully implement every provision of Resolution 1701.
UN report on implementation after the cessation of hostilities
- 2006-08-11
Security Council adopts Resolution 1701
Resolution 1701 called for a full cessation of hostilities, Israeli withdrawal in parallel with Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, no armed personnel or weapons in the area between the Blue Line and Litani River other than those of the Lebanese State and UNIFIL, and implementation of earlier disarmament provisions.
- 2006-07-12
Hezbollah cross-border attack triggers the 2006 war
Hezbollah fighters crossed the Blue Line, attacked Israeli forces, killed soldiers, and captured two soldiers. Israel responded with large-scale military operations in Lebanon, beginning a 34-day war.
UN Secretary-General report on the 12 July attack and ensuing conflict
- 2004-09-02
Security Council adopts Resolution 1559
Resolution 1559 called for the disbanding and disarmament of Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias and for extension of Lebanese Government control throughout the country. Adoption did not disarm Hezbollah.
- 2000-05-24 to 2000-06-16
Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon and the UN identifies the Blue Line
Israel withdrew its forces from southern Lebanon, and the United Nations verified withdrawal against a line identified for that purpose. The Blue Line is a UN line of withdrawal, not an agreed international border, and is without prejudice to future border arrangements.
UN Secretary-General report verifying Israeli withdrawal · UN geospatial page on the withdrawal line
- 1992
Hassan Nasrallah becomes Hezbollah secretary-general
Hassan Nasrallah became Hezbollah's secretary-general in 1992 and remained the organization's dominant leader until his death in an Israeli strike in September 2024.
- 1982 onward
Israel invades Lebanon and Hezbollah emerges
Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982. Hezbollah emerged in that wartime context as a Lebanese Shia Islamist movement and armed organization with Iranian support. This is the beginning of the Hezbollah-specific timeline, not the beginning of Israel-Lebanon conflict.
U.S. National Counterterrorism Center — Hizballah profile · UNIFIL background
- 1978-03-19
Security Council establishes UNIFIL after Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon
Following Israel's 1978 invasion of Lebanon, the Security Council established UNIFIL through Resolutions 425 and 426 to confirm Israeli withdrawal, restore international peace and security, and assist the Lebanese Government in restoring authority in the area.
— BEGINNING OF RECORD —
- Direction
- Escalating (+6.4 / 7d)
- Severity
- Extreme (73 / 100)
- Connections
- Moderate (~4 of 8)
- Cascade
- Moderate (#6 of 9)
How this was measured
| Internationalization18% | 10 | ◆ | |
| Ground combat16% | 22 | ◆ | |
| Standoff strikes14% | 38 | ◆ | |
| Nuclear escalation12% | 0 | ▼ -12 | |
| Mobilization12% | 45 | ◆ | |
| Crisis control10% | 48 | ◆ | |
| Territorial control8% | 45 | ◆ | |
| Geographic spillover7% | 39 | ◆ | |
| Infrastructure3% | 30 | ◆ |
- ▲ 4.4 limited state strike · unverified
- ▲ 2 limited state strike · unverified
- ISR
- US
- HMS
- HZB
- PIJ
- IRN
- WBB
- AMB
- AML
- DFL
- PFL
- LBN
- PSE
- EGY
- QAT
- PSE → ISR · ISRAEL-LEVANT ↔ TURKEY-EASTMED
August 16, 2026 | - IMEMC News266 sources - SYR → ISR · ISRAEL-LEVANT ↔ TURKEY-EASTMED
Israeli forces enter Syria’s Quneitra countryside, raid homes11 sources - TUR → ISR · ISRAEL-LEVANT ↔ RUSSIA-NATO
Armenian Genocide survivors' grandson says 'political motives' block recognition - AOL8 sources
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Recomputed every third day, from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number. Between recomputations the index holds its last value rather than being re-judged without new evidence. Full construction →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the board a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
WWIII.REPORT tracks the armed conflicts and flashpoints with the potential to escalate toward a global war. Every day, open-source reporting from every active theater is assessed into its 0-100 War Index, key developments, and a full situation report. A separate WW3 risk index measures how close those separate conflicts are to becoming one war.
Daily at 17:00 UTC. How the index is built · All pages
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