WORLD WAR 3 RISK INDEX i

Verified situation report across 9 tracked conflicts, from open-source reporting to Friday 25 September 2026, 17:52 UTC. Iranian pressure on Gulf shipping and US secondary sanctions are hardening into an economic contest over the Strait of Hormuz [17, 19]. Tehran submitted a seven-day proposal offering to reopen the waterway in exchange for sanctions relief [17, 27]. The United Arab Emirates suspended Iranian flights to enforce American aviation sanctions [19, 20]. Iranian officials threatened reciprocal disruption against regional airports enforcing the flight ban [21, 22]. These compounding restrictions threaten commercial flight routes and regional energy supply chains [19, 22].