WORLD WAR 3 RISK INDEX i

Sustained high-intensity interstate warfare involving heavy aerial strikes, industrial interdiction, and civilian infrastructure bombardment.

Cross-border drone attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and ongoing maritime friction maintain theater risk at critical levels.

Cross-border drone strikes from Iraq damaged Saudi energy infrastructure, forcing a major pipeline shutdown alongside intense combat in western Yemen.

Continued Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon, targeted strikes in Gaza, and diplomatic delays maintain elevated operational tension.

Sharpened airspace violations over Romania and gray-zone subsea activity maintain elevated friction without direct armed conflict.

Peacetime gray-zone pressure, regular PLA force modernization, and Taiwanese defense budget proposals sustain elevated cross-Strait tension without active hostilities.

North Korean short-range ballistic missile launches and satellite-verified nuclear enrichment facility expansion elevate regional friction above baseline levels.

Routine diplomatic meetings, scheduled Mediterranean military exercises, and minor diplomatic disputes sustain baseline peacetime friction.

Peacetime operational baseline persists with routine domestic counter-terrorism actions and multilateral diplomatic hosting in New Delhi.