← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan
China – Taiwan conflict
- Unverified online imagery depicted a PLA Eastern Theater Command Type 19 amphibious vehicle fitted with a counter-drone laser weapon. News - South China Morning Post · 12 Sep 2026Why PLA’s laser-equipped Type 19 vehicle could matter in a Taiwan conflict
- Taiwan’s Electronic Force Command allocated NT$95.93 million in proposed 2027 funding for a U.S.-assisted cyber threat-hunting program. News - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026Taiwan sets up US-backed cyber unit to hunt hidden military threats
- Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning lodged diplomatic protests with Italy over Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim's visit. News - South China Morning Post · 11 Sep 2026Beijing lodges diplomatic protests over Taiwan official’s visit to Italy
- The PLA 71st Group Army conducted live-fire trials after deploying 155mm PLZ-05 self-propelled howitzers opposite the Taiwan Strait. News - South China Morning Post · 9 Sep 2026Beijing boosts Taiwan-facing firepower with brigade-level 155mm howitzer deployment
- Japan acquired a former Nippon Steel industrial site in Kure to construct a military logistics facility. China - South China Morning Post · 8 Sep 2026How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over Taiwan
Tactical Counter-Drone Capability
Online imagery of a laser-equipped Type 19 amphibious vehicle variant points to PLA Eastern Theater Command efforts to counter potential Taiwanese asymmetric drone swarms during beachhead operations. Concurrently, Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim outlined the proposed T-Dome integrated air defense system at the Taipei Security Dialogue, emphasizing lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East to field cost-effective interception networks. News - South China Morning Post · 12 Sep 2026Why PLA’s laser-equipped Type 19 vehicle could matter in a Taiwan conflictTaipei Times · 10 Sep 2026Taiwan developing multilayered defense
Cyber Defense Integration
Taiwan’s Information, Communications and Electronic Force Command proposed allocating NT$95.93 million in its 2027 budget to hire foreign instructors, primarily from the United States, for proactive network threat hunting and Cyber Flag-style exercises. This initiative follows a July AI-driven intrusion into Taiwanese network infrastructure, addressing vulnerabilities that Chinese state-backed threat actors could target alongside kinetic operations. The Diplomat · 8 Sep 2026Is China Really a Cyber Threat to Taiwan?News - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026Taiwan sets up US-backed cyber unit to hunt hidden military threats
European Diplomatic Friction
Beijing lodged formal diplomatic protests against Italy and the European Union following Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s attendance at an international forum in Italy. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning condemned the travel as an effort to promote Taiwanese independence under the guise of democracy, reinforcing Beijing's persistent campaign to enforce international diplomatic isolation on Taipei's leadership. News - South China Morning Post · 11 Sep 2026Beijing lodges diplomatic protests over Taiwan official’s visit to Italy
Japanese Staging Infrastructure
Japan's acquisition of a former industrial site in Kure, Hiroshima prefecture, establishes a centralized hub for military logistics and defense manufacturing intended to sustain long-term operations during a regional crisis. PLA Rocket Force researchers publicly highlighted Japan's evolving security posture as a strategic concern, signaling growing Chinese scrutiny of Tokyo's defense expansion. News - South China Morning Post · 7 Sep 2026PLA Rocket Force highlights ‘major danger signal’ from Japan in nuclear terror studyChina - South China Morning Post · 8 Sep 2026How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over Taiwan
Assessment
Technological adaptation and defense infrastructure expansion across Taiwan, Japan, and mainland China maintain elevated cross-Strait operational readiness without active military hostilities.
SCORE RATIONALE // Peacetime gray-zone pressure, regular PLA force modernization, and Taiwanese defense budget proposals sustain elevated cross-Strait tension without active hostilities.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
1 more
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 13 September 2026 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. The full construction — formulas, weights and the calibration set — is published at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
The reporting is reassessed daily. The index itself is recomputed on a rolling three-day cycle, and between recomputations it holds its last value rather than being re-judged without new evidence.
- Direction
- Holding steady (0 / 7d)
- Severity
- Moderate (21 / 100)
- Connections
- Moderate (~4 of 8)
- Cascade
- Low (#7 of 9)
How this was measured
| Internationalization18% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Ground combat16% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Standoff strikes14% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Nuclear escalation12% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Mobilization12% | 28 | ◆ | |
| Crisis control10% | 48 | ◆ | |
| Territorial control8% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Geographic spillover7% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Infrastructure3% | 0 | ◆ |
- ▲ 2.2 weapons or training support · unverified
- CHN
- TWN
- US
- JPN
- AUS
- PHL
- BLA
- TIP
- KIA
- ARK
- TNL
- MND
- TWN → CHN · CHINA-TAIWAN ↔ KOREA
Why did Taiwan take a record 266 days to approve its 2026 budget | News.az11 sources - AFR → CHN · CHINA-TAIWAN (external actor)
Côte d’Ivoire boosts military capabilities with new Chinese patrol vessels and drones - Defenc…6 sources - CAN → CHN · CHINA-TAIWAN (external actor)
German writer tells of Chinese spy in Taiwan - Taipei Times6 sources
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Recomputed every two days while a theater is at war and every five otherwise, from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number. Between recomputations the index holds its last value rather than being re-judged without new evidence. Full construction →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.
Possible new links between this theater and the others, found automatically in machine-coded news: a state acting in both, alliance bridges, retaliation across them. Each entry leads with the headline that evidenced it.
Discovery, not verification. Nothing here changes any score. Nothing appears unless at least two independent sources from two different domains reported it within 72 hours, and only the editorial process can mark a connection verified.