← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan Conflict
- Navantia and Larsen and Toubro signed an agreement in Madrid to collaborate on four amphibious assault ships for the Indian Navy. Naval News · 9 Oct 2026Navantia and Larsen and Toubro collaborate to offer LHDs to the Indian Navy
- Pakistan rejected news reports alleging Pakistan Air Force aircraft conducted military strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. Pakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 8 Oct 2026Pakistan denies PAF jets striking Houthis
- Inter-Services Public Relations Director General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry stated Pakistan is acting as an intermediary between the United States and Iran. Dawn - Home · 9 Oct 2026DG ISPR says Pakistan acting as an ‘honest broker’ in US-Iran warPakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 9 Oct 2026Pakistan committed to 'negotiated and peaceful outcome' between US, Iran: DG ISPR
- Reporters Without Borders reported Indian regulatory orders mandated rapid removals of online reporting regarding shootings in India-administered Kashmir. Dawn - World · 10 Oct 2026Online media censorship rising in India, says Reporters Without Borders
- The Indian Ministry of External Affairs objected to remarks by United States Vice President JD Vance regarding Indian temporary foreign workers. Hindustan Times · 9 Oct 2026‘US history shaped by immigrants’: India calls out JD Vance over ‘deeply offensive’ H-1B visa remarks
Amphibious Fleet Procurement
Spanish shipbuilder Navantia and Indian firm Larsen and Toubro signed a memorandum of understanding in Madrid to jointly bid for the Indian Navy's planned procurement of four landing platform docks. The industrial alliance targets India's amphibious warfare program, aiming to construct the vessels domestically under comprehensive technology-transfer arrangements. The four planned assault ships are configured to expand Indian expeditionary troop transport, vehicle deployment, and sustained maritime surveillance across the Indian Ocean. Naval News · 9 Oct 2026Navantia and Larsen and Toubro collaborate to offer LHDs to the Indian Navy
Middle East Posture
Inter-Services Public Relations Director General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry stated that Pakistan is mediating between the United States and Iran to halt further armed confrontation in the Persian Gulf. Pakistan separately dismissed news reports alleging that Pakistan Air Force fighter aircraft had conducted combat strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. Pakistani military authorities stated that commitments under the August 2026 Makkah Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye remain defensive rather than expeditionary. Dawn - Home · 9 Oct 2026DG ISPR says Pakistan acting as an ‘honest broker’ in US-Iran warPakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 9 Oct 2026Pakistan committed to 'negotiated and peaceful outcome' between US, Iran: DG ISPRPakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 8 Oct 2026Pakistan denies PAF jets striking Houthis
Kashmir Information Controls
Reporters Without Borders reported that Indian authorities have accelerated the censorship of investigative journalism examining security operations in India-administered Kashmir. Regulatory rules implemented in February 2026 require digital platforms to remove flagged journalistic reporting within three hours, affecting published investigations into lead-pellet injuries and local displacement. The administrative measures occur while Indian and Pakistani forces continue to maintain the May 2025 ceasefire understanding along the Line of Control. Dawn - World · 10 Oct 2026Online media censorship rising in India, says Reporters Without Borders
Assessment
Bilateral military posture remains quiet under the May 2025 Line of Control ceasefire understanding, while both governments concentrate resources on naval recapitalization and broader external alignments.
BOTTOM LINE // Military posture remains stable under the May 2025 ceasefire understanding while both states prioritize naval modernization and separate external diplomatic alignments.
The National Interest notes the International Energy Agency expects India to increase its coal usage. The National Interest · 2 Oct 2026Energy Security in a De-Globalizing World
- Next 12 months
- The National Interest reports the International Energy Agency expects India to use 4.2 percent more coal in 2026.
IN NUMBERS
Indus Waters Treaty suspended
535 days
since 23 Apr 2025
Kashmir conflict deaths, 2026
28
to the end of August
India's exports to Pakistan, July
$13.5 m
▼ 35% from the month before
GPS jamming on the border
131,000 km²
This war's key figures, from the bodies that keep them — each named below, with the day its figure describes. A figure that stops being updated is taken down rather than left to go stale.
- Indus Waters Treaty suspended — Days since India put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. Government of India, 10 Oct 2026.
- Kashmir conflict deaths, 2026 — Deaths in the Kashmir conflict and in fighting between India and Pakistan since 1 January, UCDP's preliminary monthly events, best estimate. Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 31 Aug 2026.
- India's exports to Pakistan, July — Goods India reported exporting to Pakistan in the month, in US dollars. UN Comtrade, 31 Jul 2026.
- GPS jamming on the border — Area where many aircraft reported degraded GPS on the latest day, in square kilometres. GPSJam.org, 9 Oct 2026.
- 2026-10-07
Pakistan conducts test launch of extended-range Fatah-IV ground-launched cruise missile
Pakistan's military test-fired an indigenously developed extended-range version of the Fatah-IV cruise missile on 6 October. The test follows earlier trials of naval anti-ship ballistic missiles and the 750-kilometer variant of the Fatah-IV.
- 2026-10-03
Indian border troops killed two Pakistani civilians in firing along the Kasur border.
State media reported that India's Border Security Force fired without warning on three Pakistani villagers who stepped past a border marker near Ladhar in Kasur. Two civilians were killed and one was injured, while Pakistani officials alleged a violation of established boundary standard operating procedures.
- 2026-09-29
Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completes maiden live-fire test
The Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completed its maiden live-fire weapons testing in the North Arabian Sea.
4 more
- 2026-09-26
Pakistan warns India that diverting Indus waters constitutes an act of war
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned the United Nations General Assembly that any Indian effort to divert Indus River waters would be treated as an act of war.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 19.9/100 as of 10 October 2026 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 19.9/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Why it moved▲ 0.5 · 10 OCTNo talks reported
19.4 → 19.9
The day’s reporting:
- ▲No talks reported — before: talks under way
The conflict’s stage held.
- Direction
- Holding steady (-1.1 / 7d)
- Severity
- Moderate (19.9 / 100)
- Connections
- Limited (~3 of 8)
- Cascade
- Minimal (#9 of 9)
How this was measured
| Internationalization18% | 20 | ◆ | |
| Ground combat16% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Standoff strikes14% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Nuclear escalation12% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Mobilization12% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Crisis control10% | 30 | ◆ | |
| Territorial control8% | 10 | ◆ | |
| Geographic spillover7% | 10 | ◆ | |
| Infrastructure3% | 15 | ◆ |
- ▲ 0.8 Pakistan reaffirms its role as an 'honest broker' in mediating a negotiated and peaceful resolution between the United States and Iran. alliance consultation · confirmed
- ▲ 0.4 Pakistan denies reports that its Air Force jets are striking Houthi targets, calling a New York Times claim 'fake and fabricated'. hostile rhetoric · reported single
- ▼ 2.3 India clarifies that satellite communication licenses are granted to multiple providers (Starlink, Jio Satcom, OneWeb) upon meeting security norms, rejecting claims of monopolistic restrictions. communication restored · reported single
131,000 km² of heavy interference along the India–Pakistan border on 9 Oct
Worst around Peshawar, Dera Ismail Khan and Sargodha.
heavy medium clear
Planes broadcast where they are and how sure they are of it. When many planes in one area report that their position is unreliable, the GPS signal there is almost certainly being jammed (drowned in noise) or spoofed (faked). Armies do it to throw off drones and missiles, and airliners nearby lose GPS as a side effect.
Each dot is an area about 40 km across, coloured by the share of planes that reported degraded GPS there that day (UTC): red where more than 10% did, amber where 2 to 10% did, dim where fewer did. A faint speck means no plane with a transponder flew there, or no receiver heard one. Airspace over Ukraine and much of Iran is closed, so interference there cannot be seen.
The area in the headline adds up the red dots. The line under the map is that area's 7-day average over six months, its first and last value at the ends. This map covers both sides of the India–Pakistan border, from Kashmir to Rajasthan and Sindh.
Data: GPSJam.org, from aircraft reports collected by airplanes.live and ADS-B Exchange and published each day soon after midnight UTC. GPSJam discounts one bad report in every area, so a single plane with a faulty receiver does not colour a quiet one.
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.