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← WW3 RISK TRACKER / TENSION RADAR

Tension Radar: geopolitical tension against normal, and emerging connections

WORLD WAR 3 RISK INDEX

Verified situation report across 9 tracked conflicts, from open-source reporting to Saturday 10 October 2026, 04:00 UTC. Iranian interdiction in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi civilian centers are turning Gulf shipping into a contested zone. Iran’s attacks on commercial vessels and a thwarted suicide plot against Israel raise the cost of transit. Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries and energy depots degrade Moscow’s war economy, while Russian strikes on Ukrainian buses and apartment blocks deepen civilian casualties. Strikes on commercial tankers and Riyadh's airport directly threaten regional shipping lanes and air corridors.

47.8 ▲ +0.8
WW3 RISK LEVEL: SEVERE
REPORT FOR 10 OCT
CONFLICT NEWS MONITOR HOW MUCH CONFLICT NEWS VS EACH PAIR'S NORMAL · GDELT PROJECT DATA

QUIETER THAN USUALUSUAL LEVELABOVE USUALWELL ABOVE USUALFAR ABOVE USUAL

How this index works

Each tile is the daily share of conflict-coded news events — for the world, or between one pair of states — measured against a fixed baseline built from 779 sampled days between 2016 and 2026. 100 means that place's normal; 200 means twice its usual level. A long fixed baseline matters: measured against its own recent months, a war in its third year slowly becomes its own "normal" and stops registering. The line is a 14-day average of the daily readings (hover for any day's raw value); a day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Not a probability — a deviation from each place's own history. Data: the GDELT Project's open event stream, updated every 15 minutes. Full construction →

WORLDUSUAL LEVEL102 1.02× normaltone -2.4 · 58589 articles today · as of 2026-10-09RUSSIA – UKRAINEUSUAL LEVEL122 1.22× normaltone -2.4 · 558 articles today · as of 2026-10-09CHINA – TAIWANUSUAL LEVEL120 1.20× normaltone -3.1 · 37 articles today · as of 2026-10-09INDIA – PAKISTANUSUAL LEVEL109 1.09× normaltone -12.7 · 12 articles today · as of 2026-10-07ISRAEL – LEBANONUSUAL LEVEL108 1.08× normaltone -2.9 · 45 articles todayN. KOREA – S. KOREAUSUAL LEVEL104 1.04× normaltone 0.2 · 13 articles today · as of 2026-10-09IRAN – ISRAELUSUAL LEVEL101 1.01× normaltone -5.7 · 21 articles today · as of 2026-10-09SAUDI – YEMENUSUAL LEVEL83 0.83× normaltone -5.5 · 49 articles today · as of 2026-10-09RUSSIA – USAUSUAL LEVEL80 0.80× normaltone -1.9 · 335 articles today · as of 2026-10-09TURKEY – GREECEQUIETER THAN USUAL69 0.69× normaltone -1.9 · 39 articles today
EMERGING CONNECTIONS GDELT PROJECT DATA
  1. AFG → PAK · INDIA-PAKISTAN (external actor)
    Pakistan Sends 724 Relief Trucks Into Afghanistan via Torkha - Pakistan Today22 sources
  2. UKR → UKR · RUSSIA-NATO ↔ RUSSIA-UKRAINE
    Putin loses 43K soldiers in Ukraine in one of war's bloodiest months259 sources
  3. UKR → RUS · KOREA (external actor)
    Putin loses 43K soldiers in Ukraine in one of war's bloodiest months220 sources
  4. SAU → SAU · IRAN-GULF ↔ SAUDI-HOUTHIS
    Ansarullah: Saudis can do nothing without US consent, dread war with Yemen64 sources
  5. UKR → UKR · RUSSIA-NATO ↔ RUSSIA-UKRAINE
    US and Trkiye opening Pandoras box with Ukraine arms deal Moscow18 sources

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