Tension Radar: geopolitical tension against normal, and emerging connections

Each tile is the daily share of conflict-coded news events — for the world, or between one pair of states — measured against a fixed baseline built from 779 sampled days between 2016 and 2026. 100 means that place's normal; 200 means twice its usual level. A long fixed baseline matters: measured against its own recent months, a war in its third year slowly becomes its own "normal" and stops registering. The line is a 14-day average of the daily readings (hover for any day's raw value); a day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Not a probability — a deviation from each place's own history. Data: the GDELT Project's open event stream, updated every 15 minutes. Full construction →