← WW3 RISK TRACKER / MARKETS
WW3 Risk vs Markets
The WW3 risk index went from 40.4 to 47.8 over these 50 days. Beside it, four markets that wars move: prices as each morning’s report saw them, a day’s last.
| Market | Now | Since 15 Aug | Day-to-day, against the index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | $91.85 | +11.5% | A weak link, moving together (few days yet) r = 0.35, 26 days |
| Gold | $4,216 | −5.0% | No clear link (few days yet) r = 0.66, 26 days |
| S&P 500 | $715.59 | +0.3% | A moderate link, moving opposite (few days yet) r = -0.51, 23 days |
| Nasdaq 100 | $751.27 | +2.8% | A strong link, moving opposite (few days yet) r = -0.63, 23 days |
WW3 risk index, left Oil, right — each on its own scale; hover for both
15 Aug10 Oct
Oil went from $82.40 to $91.85 (+11.5%) while the index went from 40.4 to 47.8. On the 26 days both moved, they moved the same way on 15: a weak link, moving together (few days yet).
WW3 risk index, left Gold, right — each on its own scale; hover for both
15 Aug10 Oct
Gold went from $4,437 to $4,216 (−5.0%) while the index went from 40.4 to 47.8. On the 26 days both moved, they moved the same way on 9: no clear link (few days yet).
WW3 risk index, left S&P 500, right — each on its own scale; hover for both
15 Aug10 Oct
S&P 500 went from $713.61 to $715.59 (+0.3%) while the index went from 40.4 to 47.8. On the 23 days both moved, they moved the same way on 11: a moderate link, moving opposite (few days yet).
WW3 risk index, left Nasdaq 100, right — each on its own scale; hover for both
15 Aug10 Oct
Nasdaq 100 went from $731.07 to $751.27 (+2.8%) while the index went from 40.4 to 47.8. On the 23 days both moved, they moved the same way on 11: a strong link, moving opposite (few days yet).
Markets move for many reasons at once — rates, earnings, supply, a single speech — and the WW3 risk index moves slowly, a reading a day. The link above is measured on the days both moved (the index changed and the market was open): how closely the two moves track each other (r, from −1 to 1) and how often they went the same way. Fewer than ten such days says nothing; when the two measures disagree, the page says there is no clear link. Correlation is not cause, and none of this is investment advice.
Prices: the market strip’s own quotes (Yahoo Finance), recorded beside each run. What the index measures →