← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran War
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy struck the Vietnamese-owned LPG carrier NV Sunshine in the southern Strait of Hormuz. Tehran Times · 9 Oct 2026IRGC reports fire aboard LPG carrier in Strait of Hormuz, warns against unauthorized transit
- United Arab Emirates prosecutors announced that a Flydubai co-pilot attempted a suicide attack targeting Israel's Ben Gurion airport. World news | The Guardian · 9 Oct 2026Flydubai co-pilot planned suicide attack on Israeli airport, UAE prosecutors sayAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Oct 2026UAE says Omani flydubai co-pilot planned suicide attack on Tel Aviv flight
- Baluch insurgent coalition Jebhe-ye Mobarezin-e Mardomi killed five Iranian security personnel in southeastern Iran. Iran International · 9 Oct 2026At least five members of Iranian forces killed in four southeast attacksFDD's Long War Journal · 9 Oct 2026Insurgent attacks surge in southeastern Iran
- United States Vice President JD Vance demanded that Iran halt production of sixty percent enriched uranium. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Oct 2026Trump offers Iran path to nuclear deal while keeping up military pressure
- OpenAI and Anthropic reported that Iranian actors used commercial artificial intelligence platforms to generate targeting against United States naval vessels. Iran International · 9 Oct 2026Iran-linked actors used US AI for fake journalism, military targeting
Hormuz Maritime Enforcement
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy escalated unilateral transit controls by firing upon commercial shipping south of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian military statements asserted complete jurisdictional control over the waterway under orders from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warning foreign vessels against unauthorized transit routes near Oman. Commercial operators face intensified physical threats along the southern perimeter as Tehran enforces its naval export demands. Tehran Times · 9 Oct 2026IRGC reports fire aboard LPG carrier in Strait of Hormuz, warns against unauthorized transit
Aviation Security Breach
United Arab Emirates authorities revealed that a commercial co-pilot attempted to crash a passenger flight into Israel's Ben Gurion airport during a September 30 service from Dubai. State prosecutors reported the suspect conducted reconnaissance flights to familiarize himself with the approach before incapacitating the primary pilot with an axe. The incident marks an unprecedented breach of civil aviation safeguards between Gulf hubs and Tel Aviv. World news | The Guardian · 9 Oct 2026Flydubai co-pilot planned suicide attack on Israeli airport, UAE prosecutors sayAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 9 Oct 2026Flydubai co-pilot plotted ‘suicide’ attack on Israel, UAE saysAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Oct 2026UAE says Omani flydubai co-pilot planned suicide attack on Tel Aviv flight
Diplomatic Stances and Enrichment
Washington paired its temporary strike moratorium with explicit nuclear ultimatums regarding Iranian fissile material. Vice President JD Vance conditioned potential negotiations on verifiable rollbacks of Tehran's sixty percent enriched uranium production. Concurrently, the Kremlin claimed United States officials welcomed Russian mediation efforts, though Iranian officials rejected third-party compromises while Washington's economic sanctions remain fully enforced. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 9 Oct 2026Trump offers Iran path to nuclear deal while keeping up military pressureAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 9 Oct 2026Iran war live: Kremlin says Trump welcomed Russia’s effort in Iran deal
Internal Insurgency Pressure
Iranian security forces faced coordinated insurgent assaults across Sistan and Baluchestan province, suffering multiple casualties among conventional army and police personnel. The Jebhe-ye Mobarezin-e Mardomi coalition has conducted five armed operations within seven days, expanding a low-level conflict that ties down Revolutionary Guard ground elements. These domestic clashes exacerbate internal security strains as Tehran maintains external force deployments across the Gulf. Iran International · 9 Oct 2026At least five members of Iranian forces killed in four southeast attacksFDD's Long War Journal · 9 Oct 2026Insurgent attacks surge in southeastern Iran
Assessment
The operational pause on direct United States airstrikes contains immediate interstate escalation, but recurrent maritime attacks in Hormuz and unyielding nuclear demands maintain acute regional instability.
BOTTOM LINE // Maritime strikes in Hormuz and an intercepted aviation plot counter diplomatic overtures while direct interstate strikes remain paused.
Defense Priorities assesses Tehran's strategy will continue using the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Washington into negotiating peace or ending the war unilaterally. Defense Priorities · 2 Oct 2026Reopening the Strait of Hormuz leaves US with mixed success
MARITIME TRAFFIC
Strait of Hormuz
2.7 ships a day3% of normal · last 7 days▼ from 3.1 the week before
each day 7-day average normal: 86 a day, the 2025 average data through 4 Oct 2026
Ships a day through the waters this war turns on, as a share of their normal — the average day of one named year, the last full year before the conflict's current phase.
- Strait of Hormuz — the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf. Normal: 86 ships a day, the 2025 average.
Counted by IMF PortWatch from ships' AIS position signals and published a few days late. A ship that switches AIS off is not counted, so a fall can be ships hiding as well as ships staying away.
1M to 6M show every day. 1Y shows each week's average day, and ALL each month's, back to January 2019, when PortWatch's count begins.
IN NUMBERS
Iran online
95%
of the pre-war level
Tankers through Hormuz, 7 days
6
▼ 3 from the week before
Tanker calls at Fujairah, 7 days
30
▼ 3 from the week before
Oil (WTI)
$91.85/bbl
▲ $2.42 on the week
Ships through Hormuz
2.7/day
3% of normal
This war's key figures, from the bodies that keep them — each named below, with the day its figure describes. A figure that stops being updated is taken down rather than left to go stale.
- Iran online — Iranian networks answering IODA's probes over the last day, against February 2026, before the war. IODA, Georgia Tech, 10 Oct 2026.
- Tankers through Hormuz, 7 days — Tanker transits of the Strait of Hormuz over the last seven days of data. IMF PortWatch, 4 Oct 2026.
- Tanker calls at Fujairah, 7 days — Tankers calling at Fujairah, the UAE's oil port outside the strait, over the last seven days of data. IMF PortWatch, 2 Oct 2026.
- Oil (WTI) — WTI crude, front-month futures, dollars a barrel. Yahoo Finance, 9 Oct 2026.
- Ships through Hormuz — Ships a day through Strait of Hormuz over the last seven days of data, against its 2025 average. IMF PortWatch, 4 Oct 2026.
- 2026-10-10
The IRGC struck the LPG carrier NV Sunshine in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy reported that the Vietnamese-owned LPG carrier NV Sunshine caught fire after being struck during an unauthorized transit south of the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-10-09
President Trump stated the United States will not attack Iran before November midterms
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States will avoid strikes on Iran prior to the November 3 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive indirect negotiations.
- 2026-10-08
Oman evacuated 10 injured crew members after a tanker strike near Limah
A projectile struck the Panamanian-flagged tanker On Peace off Limah, injuring 12 crew members including 11 Indian nationals. The Royal Air Force of Oman evacuated the wounded to a hospital in Khasab.
4 more
- 2026-10-07
Iran-backed forces reportedly intercepted and turned back a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ordered a merchant vessel to reverse course in the Strait of Hormuz, marking a direct challenge to commercial shipping. This follows a surge in projectile attacks on tankers, including an engine-room fire on the On Peace tanker.
- 2026-10-06
United States withdrew B-1 bombers from Britain's RAF Fairford back to American bases
The United States Air Force redeployed B-1 strategic bombers from RAF Fairford to domestic bases following an unexploded ordnance alert nearby. The move reduces rapid bomber sortie generation capabilities against Iranian targets.
- 2026-10-05
Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned amid the United States crude export blockade.
Paknejad stepped down on Sunday, leaving Hamid Bovard as acting oil minister to manage disrupted export operations under intense enforcement of the American maritime counterblockade.
- 2026-10-04
Unannounced Camp David meeting weighs options as additional United States naval forces deploy.
President Donald Trump convened senior national security officials at Camp David while another aircraft carrier strike group and additional military personnel moved toward the Middle East.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 72.6/100 as of 10 October 2026 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 72.6/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Why it moved▲ 0.5 · 10 OCTCasualties reported
72.1 → 72.6
The day’s reporting:
- ▲Casualties reported — before: no casualties reported
From Iran International · 9 Oct 2026At least five members of Iranian forces killed in four southeast attacksFDD's Long War Journal · 9 Oct 2026Insurgent attacks surge in southeastern IranTehran Times · 9 Oct 2026IRGC reports fire aboard LPG carrier in Strait of Hormuz, warns against unauthorized transit
The conflict’s stage held.
- Direction
- Escalating sharply (+11.7 / 7d)
- Severity
- Extreme (72.6 / 100)
- Connections
- Very high (~5 of 8)
- Cascade
- High (#1 of 9)
How this was measured
| Internationalization18% | 50 | ◆ | |
| Ground combat16% | 22 | ◆ | |
| Standoff strikes14% | 60 | ◆ | |
| Nuclear escalation12% | 0 | ▼ -58 | |
| Mobilization12% | 65 | ◆ | |
| Crisis control10% | 82 | ◆ | |
| Territorial control8% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Geographic spillover7% | 64 | ◆ | |
| Infrastructure3% | 70 | ◆ |
- ▲ 5.8 The IRGC Navy reported a fire aboard the LPG carrier NV Sunshine in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it was struck while transiting an unauthorized route. maritime chokepoint disruption · reported single
- ▲ 4.8 U.S. President Trump stated that productive discussions are underway with Iran, while emphasizing no attack before the November 3 midterms and demanding meaningful reductions in Iranian enrichment capacity. diplomatic break · reported multiple
- ▲ 1.1 Baluch insurgent coalition JMM claimed five attacks in seven days in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, killing at least five Iranian security personnel. cross border incident · reported multiple
41,000 km² of heavy interference over Iran and the Gulf on 9 Oct▲ from 17,000 a day the week before
Worst around Abu Dhabi, Fujairah and Ras al-Khaimah.
heavy medium clear
Planes broadcast where they are and how sure they are of it. When many planes in one area report that their position is unreliable, the GPS signal there is almost certainly being jammed (drowned in noise) or spoofed (faked). Armies do it to throw off drones and missiles, and airliners nearby lose GPS as a side effect.
Each dot is an area about 40 km across, coloured by the share of planes that reported degraded GPS there that day (UTC): red where more than 10% did, amber where 2 to 10% did, dim where fewer did. A faint speck means no plane with a transponder flew there, or no receiver heard one. Airspace over Ukraine and much of Iran is closed, so interference there cannot be seen.
The area in the headline adds up the red dots. The line under the map is that area's 7-day average over six months, its first and last value at the ends. This map covers Iran, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, with the Gulf states' coasts.
Data: GPSJam.org, from aircraft reports collected by airplanes.live and ADS-B Exchange and published each day soon after midnight UTC. GPSJam discounts one bad report in every area, so a single plane with a faulty receiver does not colour a quiet one.
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.