← WW3 RISK TRACKER // TENSION RADAR
WORLD WAR 3 RISK INDEX
QUIETER THAN USUALUSUAL LEVELABOVE USUALWELL ABOVE USUALFAR ABOVE USUAL Each tile is the daily share of conflict-coded news events — for the world, or between one pair of states — measured against a fixed baseline built from 775 sampled days between 2016 and 2026. 100 means that place's normal; 200 means twice its usual level. A long fixed baseline matters: measured against its own recent months, a war in its third year slowly becomes its own "normal" and stops registering. The line is a 14-day average of the daily readings (hover for any day's raw value); a day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Not a probability — a deviation from each place's own history. Data: the GDELT Project's open event stream, updated every 15 minutes. Full construction →How this index works
- PSE → ISR · ISRAEL-LEVANT ↔ TURKEY-EASTMED
August 16, 2026 | - IMEMC News266 sources - UKR → UKR · RUSSIA-NATO ↔ RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Putin loses 43K soldiers in Ukraine in one of war's bloodiest months259 sources - UKR → RUS · KOREA (external actor)
Putin loses 43K soldiers in Ukraine in one of war's bloodiest months220 sources - TUR → TUR · RUSSIA-NATO ↔ TURKEY-EASTMED
Erdogan says Egypt could join Turkiye-Saudi-Pakistan defence pact | Al Jazeera News | Al Jazeera54 sources - UKR → RUS · KOREA ↔ RUSSIA-NATO
Europe’s shadow war leaves U.S. behind: How the Baltic states and a “coalition of warmongers” are dragging NATO toward the abyss – NaturalNews.com12 sources
WWIII.REPORT tracks the armed conflicts and flashpoints with the potential to escalate toward a global war. Every day, open-source reporting from every active theater is assessed into its 0-100 War Index, key developments, and a full situation report. A separate WW3 risk index measures how close those separate conflicts are to becoming one war.
Daily at 17:00 UTC. How the index is built · All pages
Build v314 · Not affiliated with any government or agency.