← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian forces launched 129 drones and 14 missiles at Odesa and Ukrainian industrial sites, killing 11 people and injuring 96 nationwide. Ukrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Russia attacks Ukraine with missiles and drones, strikes reported at 20 locationsThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 12 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill 11, injure 96 across Ukraine as Odesa comes under mass overnight strikeKyiv Post · 12 Sep 2026Russian Missile and Drone Barrage Hits Odesa Region, Injuring 35
- Ukrainian SBU drones struck a Russian FPV drone production facility and storage warehouses in Taganrog. Ukrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Drones attack Tolyatti and Taganrog in Russia, sparking fires at industrial sites – photos, videosUkrinform · 12 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes FPV drone production facility, UAV warehouses near Taganrog
- Ukrainian drone strikes targeted the KuibyshevAzot chemical facility in Tolyatti, causing fires at the plant. Ukrinform · 12 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike Russian command posts and attack drone warehousesUkrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Drones attack Tolyatti and Taganrog in Russia, sparking fires at industrial sites – photos, videos
- Russian ballistic missiles struck the Zaporizhstal plant in Zaporizhzhia and the ArcelorMittal plant in Kryvyi Rih, damaging industrial equipment. Ukrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Two people killed in Russian missile strike on ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih steel plantKyiv Post · 12 Sep 2026Russian Ballistic Missiles Strike Zaporizhstal Steel Plant, Injuring 4Ukrinform · 12 Sep 2026Russia attacks Zaporizhstal for third time over past month, four injured
- Ukrainian forces executed precision strikes against Russian UAV command posts and military storage facilities in occupied Polohy, Zaliznyi Port, and Alchevsk. Ukrinform · 12 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike Russian command posts and attack drone warehousesKyiv Post · 12 Sep 2026Ukraine Strikes Russian Drone Command Posts and Supply Depots
Strategic Industrial Interdiction
Ukrainian SBU and defense forces deployed long-range drones against Russian defense-industrial plants, hitting the KuibyshevAzot chemical facility in Tolyatti to disrupt explosive precursor manufacturing and striking FPV drone production and storage warehouses in Taganrog. Ukrinform · 12 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike Russian command posts and attack drone warehousesUkrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Drones attack Tolyatti and Taganrog in Russia, sparking fires at industrial sites – photos, videosUkrinform · 12 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes FPV drone production facility, UAV warehouses near Taganrog
Urban and Heavy Industry Bombardment
Russian forces launched 129 drones and 14 missiles targeting civilian residential districts in Odesa, railway facilities in Lutsk and Fastiv, and heavy industrial plants. Ballistic strikes inflicted structural damage and casualties at the Zaporizhstal metallurgical plant in Zaporizhzhia and the ArcelorMittal steel facility in Kryvyi Rih. Ukrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Two people killed in Russian missile strike on ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih steel plantUkrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Russia attacks Ukraine with missiles and drones, strikes reported at 20 locationsKyiv Post · 12 Sep 2026Russian Ballistic Missiles Strike Zaporizhstal Steel Plant, Injuring 4
Occupied Rear Depot Targeting
Ukrainian forces conducted precision drone and artillery strikes against Russian military assets across occupied territory. Attacks struck Russian UAV command posts in Polohy and Zaliznyi Port along with drone warehouses in Donetsk, Selydove, Kurakhivka, and Alchevsk. Ukrinform · 12 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike Russian command posts and attack drone warehousesKyiv Post · 12 Sep 2026Ukraine Strikes Russian Drone Command Posts and Supply Depots
Assessment
Open interstate war continues with Ukrainian forces targeting Russian military-industrial supply facilities and Russian forces firing missile barrages at Ukrainian urban centers and heavy industrial plants.
SCORE RATIONALE // Sustained high-intensity interstate warfare involving heavy aerial strikes, industrial interdiction, and civilian infrastructure bombardment.
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine submits new peace proposals to US envoys as Russian strikes continue across Ukraine.
- 2026-08-11
Reciprocal long-range missile and drone strikes inflict casualties and hit energy and military targets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95/100 as of 13 September 2026 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. The full construction — formulas, weights and the calibration set — is published at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
The reporting is reassessed daily. The index itself is recomputed on a rolling three-day cycle, and between recomputations it holds its last value rather than being re-judged without new evidence.
- Direction
- Escalating sharply (+16.4 / 7d)
- Severity
- Extreme (95 / 100)
- Connections
- High (~5 of 8)
- Cascade
- High (#1 of 9)
How this was measured
| Internationalization18% | 31 | ◆ | |
| Ground combat16% | 100 | ◆ | |
| Standoff strikes14% | 94 | ◆ | |
| Nuclear escalation12% | 42 | ◆ | |
| Mobilization12% | 82 | ◆ | |
| Crisis control10% | 82 | ◆ | |
| Territorial control8% | 65 | ◆ | |
| Geographic spillover7% | 60 | ◆ | |
| Infrastructure3% | 70 | ◆ |
- ▲ 4.6 critical infrastructure attack · unverified
- ▲ 3.4 critical infrastructure attack · unverified
- ▲ 4.6 critical infrastructure attack · unverified
- ▲ 1.7 cross border incident · unverified
- ▲ 2.1 critical infrastructure attack · unverified
- RUS
- DPRK
- BLR
- WGR
- AKH
- IRN
- CHN
- UKR
- US
- UK
- POL
- ILU
- DEU
- FRA
- RVC
- RDT
- FRL
- UKR → RUS · RUSSIA-NATO ↔ RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Putin loses 43K soldiers in Ukraine in one of war's bloodiest months216 sources - UKR → UKR · RUSSIA-NATO ↔ RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russia targets Ukrainian Black Sea & Danube ports in supply squeeze21 sources - UKR → RUS · RUSSIA-NATO ↔ RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Europe’s shadow war leaves U.S. behind: How the Baltic states and a “coalition of warmongers” …12 sources
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Recomputed every two days while a theater is at war and every five otherwise, from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number. Between recomputations the index holds its last value rather than being re-judged without new evidence. Full construction →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.
Possible new links between this theater and the others, found automatically in machine-coded news: a state acting in both, alliance bridges, retaliation across them. Each entry leads with the headline that evidenced it.
Discovery, not verification. Nothing here changes any score. Nothing appears unless at least two independent sources from two different domains reported it within 72 hours, and only the editorial process can mark a connection verified.