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RUSSIA – UKRAINE
51 ENTRIES · 1991 – TODAYEvery recorded development, newest first. Entries carrying a score are this tracker's own assessments; the rest are the canonical record — verified history, each entry citing its source.
- 2026-08-12 PM
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12 PM
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12 PM
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12 PM
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
- 2026-08-12 AM
Ukraine submits new peace proposals to US envoys as Russian strikes continue across Ukraine.
- as of 2026-08-12
Active war, unresolved diplomacy, and continuing civilian and nuclear risk
No comprehensive ceasefire or final peace agreement is verified as in force. Fighting and cross-border long-range attacks continue; control remains dynamic; Russia's occupation and annexation claims remain distinct from sovereignty; diplomacy, exchanges, sanctions, accession talks, accountability, and IAEA monitoring continue.
UN Secretary-General statement, 6 August 2026 · IAEA Update 361 · EU listings, 7 August 2026
- 2026-08-11 PM
Reciprocal long-range missile and drone strikes inflict casualties and hit energy and military targets.
- 2026-08-06
IAEA warns of increasing off-site power losses at Zaporizhzhia plant
The IAEA reported two recent losses of external power and said the rising frequency highlighted the fragility of the grid serving the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The direct causes of the latest disconnections were not known.
- 2026-06-15 to 2026-08-07
EU opens accession clusters and expands sanctions
The EU opened the fundamentals cluster in June and the external-relations cluster in July, while adopting a 21st Russia sanctions package and additional August listings. These were accession and restrictive-measures steps, not membership or proof of economic effect.
EU cluster 1 release · EU cluster 6 release · EU 7 August listings
- 2026-04 to 2026-08-06
Long-range attacks drive a sharp rise in civilian casualties
UN monitors reported rising civilian casualties as large missile and drone attacks struck populated areas. For January-June 2026, HRMMU recorded 1,396 killed and 7,978 injured, a dated verified minimum; early August attacks caused further deaths and damage.
- 2026-02-24
General Assembly demands an immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire
On the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion, the General Assembly adopted “Support for lasting peace in Ukraine”, calling for an immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire and a comprehensive peace consistent with international law.
- 2026-01-23 to 2026-02-18
US, Ukrainian, and Russian officials hold three negotiating rounds
Trilateral talks began in Abu Dhabi, followed by a second round that produced a reciprocal prisoner exchange and a third round in Geneva. No comprehensive ceasefire or territorial settlement was announced.
UK Commons current timeline · UK Commons peace-talks briefing
- 2025-08 to 2025-12
Alaska, Washington, and late-year talks renew the diplomatic push
Trump and Putin met in Alaska, followed by Trump, Zelenskyy, and European leaders in Washington. A renewed US-led plan and security-guarantee talks followed late in the year, but territory and security terms remained unresolved.
- 2025-06-01
Ukraine conducts Operation Spiderweb against Russian air bases
Ukraine's Security Service conducted coordinated drone attacks against multiple Russian air bases and strategic aircraft. Ukrainian official damage claims were larger than some later assessments; use independently verified aircraft losses where available.
President of Ukraine statement · UK Defence Secretary statement
- 2025-05-16 to 2025-06-02
Direct Russian-Ukrainian talks resume in Istanbul
Delegations held their first direct talks since 2022 and a second round in June. Exchanges and arrangements concerning prisoners and remains were the principal results; the sides presented incompatible positions and did not agree a comprehensive ceasefire.
US State Department readout · UK Commons peace-talks briefing
- 2025-03-11 to 2025-03-25
US-led talks produce a ceasefire proposal and partial technical arrangements
Ukraine accepted a US proposal for a 30-day comprehensive ceasefire conditional on Russian acceptance. Later US talks with each side produced statements on energy strikes and Black Sea navigation, but no verified full ceasefire took effect.
US-Ukraine Jeddah joint statement · White House Black Sea outcome with Ukraine
- 2024-10-28
NATO confirms North Korean troop deployment to Russia and Kursk
NATO stated that North Korean troops had been sent to Russia and North Korean military units deployed to Kursk. North Korea had also supplied ammunition and missiles to Russia.
- 2024-08-06 onward
Ukraine launches a cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk region
Ukrainian forces crossed into Kursk region, seized territory and settlements, and compelled Russian redeployments. The salient later contracted; current control must always be sourced by date.
UK Commons current timeline · UNSC meeting coverage, August 2024
- 2024-06-15 to 2024-06-25
Swiss peace summit is followed by opening of EU accession negotiations
The Switzerland summit produced a communique on nuclear safety, food security, prisoners, detainees, and transferred children; Russia did not attend. On 25 June, the EU held its first accession conference with Ukraine.
- 2024-02-17
Russia captures Avdiivka
Ukraine withdrew from Avdiivka after prolonged fighting and supply pressure, and Russian forces took the city. Subsequent Russian advances westward were gradual and must be mapped by date.
- 2023-12-14
European Council decides to open accession negotiations
EU leaders decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine. The decision did not make Ukraine an EU member, guarantee the outcome, or set an accession date.
- 2023-07-17
Russia ends participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative
Russia notified the UN that it would stop implementing the initiative. The monitored corridor ceased, while Ukraine later developed a separate maritime export route.
- 2023-06-06
Kakhovka dam is destroyed
The dam was destroyed while under Russian occupation, causing major flooding, evacuation, ecological damage, water loss, and concern over Zaporizhzhia plant cooling. Russia and Ukraine blamed each other.
- 2023-06 to 2023-10
Ukraine's counteroffensive makes limited gains
Ukraine attacked layered Russian defences on southern and eastern axes and retook some ground, but did not sever Russia's land corridor to Crimea or achieve a strategic breakthrough.
- 2023-05
Russian and Wagner forces take Bakhmut
After prolonged urban combat, Russian forces led prominently by Wagner captured Bakhmut. Ukraine continued operations on nearby flanks; the capture did not collapse the eastern front.
- 2023-03-17
ICC issues warrants for Putin and Lvova-Belova
ICC judges issued arrest warrants concerning alleged unlawful deportation and transfer of children from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia.
- 2022-11-11
Ukraine retakes Kherson city
Russian forces withdrew from the Dnipro's west bank and Ukrainian forces re-entered Kherson city. Russia retained substantial occupied territory and continued to claim the whole region.
- 2022-10 to 2023-03
Russia conducts sustained attacks on Ukraine's energy system
Repeated missile and drone waves damaged electricity, heating, and water systems during winter, causing blackouts and increased humanitarian need. Air-defence and target claims must remain attributed.
- 2022-09-23 to 2022-10-12
Occupation votes precede annexation claims; UN rejects them
Occupation authorities organized votes in parts of four regions. Russia claimed to annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, including areas it did not control. UNGA Resolution ES-11/4 condemned the attempted annexations.
- 2022-09
Ukraine retakes large areas of Kharkiv region
Ukrainian forces broke through Russian positions and rapidly retook a large area, including Izium. Russia withdrew from much of Kharkiv region, but fighting continued elsewhere.
- 2022-07-22
Black Sea Grain Initiative is signed
Parallel agreements involving Ukraine, Russia, Turkiye, and the UN enabled food exports from designated Ukrainian ports through a monitored maritime corridor.
- 2022-05
Russia captures Mariupol after a destructive siege
Russian forces captured Mariupol after intense bombardment and the surrender of the remaining Azovstal defenders. The capture strengthened a Russian-held land corridor to Crimea.
- 2022-03-16
ICJ orders provisional measures
In Ukraine's Genocide Convention case, the ICJ ordered Russia to suspend military operations begun on 24 February and ordered both parties not to aggravate the dispute.
- 2022-03-02
General Assembly adopts Resolution ES-11/1
The General Assembly deplored Russia's aggression, demanded an immediate end to the use of force, and demanded withdrawal of Russian forces. The vote was 141-5-35.
- 2022-03 to 2022-04
Russia withdraws from northern Ukraine; killings are documented
Russia failed to take Kyiv and withdrew from Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions. OHCHR documented summary executions and attacks on individual civilians in formerly occupied areas including Bucha.
- 2022-02-24
Russia launches its full-scale invasion
Russia invaded from Russia, Belarus, and occupied Crimea, with missile and air attacks across Ukraine. Ukraine imposed martial law and mobilized. This expanded the existing 2014 conflict into nationwide interstate war.
- 2022-02-21
Russia recognizes the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk entities
Putin recognized the two self-proclaimed entities and ordered Russian forces into their claimed territory, which extended beyond areas they controlled. The move repudiated the remaining Minsk framework.
- 2021-03 to 2022-02
Russian military buildups accompany security demands
Russia concentrated forces near Ukraine and in occupied Crimea, then conducted a larger buildup including Belarus. Moscow demanded an end to further NATO enlargement and changes to NATO posture; NATO and the United States rejected core demands while offering talks.
NATO statement, 16 December 2021 · UK Commons pre-invasion timeline
- 2020-07-27
Strengthened Donbas ceasefire measures take effect
Additional ceasefire measures restricted offensive activity, firing, and heavy weapons in populated areas. Recorded violence initially fell sharply, but violations later increased and the political process stayed blocked.
- 2019-04-21 to 2019-12-09
Zelenskyy is elected and Normandy diplomacy resumes
Volodymyr Zelenskyy won the presidential election. A major detainee exchange followed, and leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany met in Paris, agreeing further implementation steps without settling the conflict.
OSCE 2019 election report · French Presidency, Normandy summit
- 2018-11-25
Russian forces seize Ukrainian naval vessels near the Kerch Strait
Russian forces fired on and seized three Ukrainian naval vessels and detained their crews near the Kerch Strait. Russia and Ukraine disputed the navigational and legal circumstances; ITLOS later prescribed provisional measures.
- 2015-02-12 to 2015-02-17
Minsk II is agreed and endorsed by the Security Council
Minsk II set out a ceasefire, heavy-weapons withdrawal, monitoring, political measures, elections under Ukrainian law, and sequenced restoration of border control. UNSC Resolution 2202 endorsed it. Core security and political provisions were not fully implemented.
- 2015 to 2020
Contact-line war persists despite repeated ceasefires
Shelling, mines, casualties, displacement, and access restrictions continued along the contact line. The OSCE monitored violations, but repeated ceasefires and the Minsk process did not resolve the conflict.
OSCE SMM reports archive · OHCHR civilian-casualty summary through 2021
- 2014-09-05 to 2014-09-19
Minsk Protocol and Memorandum establish first ceasefire framework
Ukraine, Russia, the OSCE, and separatist representatives agreed the Minsk Protocol and follow-up memorandum. They addressed a ceasefire, monitoring, detainees, security, and political steps, but fighting continued.
- 2014-07-17
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 is shot down
MH17 was shot down over separatist-held eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 aboard. A Dutch court later convicted three defendants in absentia and acquitted one; use the judgment's exact scope and do not extend it to uncharged persons.
District Court of The Hague judgment · Dutch prosecution MH17 file
- 2014-04 onward
Armed conflict begins in eastern Ukraine
Armed pro-Russian groups seized buildings in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk and declared self-proclaimed entities. Ukraine launched an operation to restore control. Russian political, personnel, materiel, and direct military involvement expanded.
OSCE response to the Ukraine crisis · UK Commons pre-invasion timeline
- 2014-02-27 to 2014-03-27
Russia seizes Crimea and claims annexation
Russian forces seized key Crimean institutions. An occupation-organized referendum preceded Russian measures claiming to incorporate Crimea and Sevastopol. UNGA Resolution 68/262 affirmed Ukraine's territorial integrity and said the referendum had no validity.
- 2014-02-18 to 2014-02-22
Deadly clashes precede Yanukovych departure and parliamentary transition
After deadly clashes and a 21 February political agreement, Yanukovych left Kyiv. Parliament declared that he was no longer performing his duties, established interim leadership, and scheduled an election. Russia calls this a coup; do not adopt that label as neutral fact.
UK Commons pre-invasion timeline · OSCE 2014 election report
- 2013-11-21 onward
Suspension of EU-association preparations triggers Euromaidan
Yanukovych's government suspended preparations for an EU association agreement. Protests in Kyiv developed into the wider Euromaidan movement over European integration, governance, corruption, and police violence.
- 1994-12-05
Budapest Memorandum records security assurances
Ukraine, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States signed the memorandum in connection with Ukraine joining the NPT as a non-nuclear-weapon state. It reaffirmed respect for independence, sovereignty, and existing borders.
- 1991-12-01
Ukraine confirms independence by referendum
A nationwide referendum approved Ukraine's declaration of independence across all regions of the former Ukrainian Soviet republic, including Crimea and Sevastopol. This is the modern statehood and border baseline.
— BEGINNING OF RECORD —
- Direction
- Escalating (+5.8 / 7d)
- Severity
- Extreme (94 / 100)
- Connections
- High (~5 of 8)
- Cascade
- High (#2 of 9)
How this was measured
| Internationalization18% | 38 | ▲ +3.4 | |
| Ground combat16% | 100 | ◆ | |
| Standoff strikes14% | 94 | ◆ | |
| Nuclear escalation12% | 42 | ▼ -34 | |
| Mobilization12% | 82 | ◆ | |
| Crisis control10% | 65 | ◆ | |
| Territorial control8% | 65 | ◆ | |
| Geographic spillover7% | 55 | ◆ | |
| Infrastructure3% | 50 | ◆ |
- ▲ 3.5 critical infrastructure attack · unverified
- ▲ 2.3 limited state strike · unverified
- RUS
- DPRK
- BLR
- WGR
- AKH
- IRN
- CHN
- UKR
- US
- UK
- POL
- ILU
- DEU
- FRA
- RVC
- FRL
- RDT
- TWN → CHN · CHINA-TAIWAN ↔ RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Scam targeted Taiwanese abroad, police say - Taipei Times16 sources - SYR → RUS · RUSSIA-UKRAINE ↔ TURKEY-EASTMED
Assad-era Officer Convicted in Austria Reportedly Returns to Syria a Free Man6 sources - OMN → IRN · RUSSIA-UKRAINE (external actor)
Navy carrier's problems are tied to attacks on U.S. base early in war6 sources
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Recomputed every third day, from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number. Between recomputations the index holds its last value rather than being re-judged without new evidence. Full construction →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the board a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
WWIII.REPORT tracks the armed conflicts and flashpoints with the potential to escalate toward a global war. Every day, open-source reporting from every active theater is assessed into its 0-100 War Index, key developments, and a full situation report. A separate WW3 risk index measures how close those separate conflicts are to becoming one war.
Daily at 17:00 UTC. How the index is built · All pages
Build v315 · Not affiliated with any government or agency.