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Iran War Timeline
66 ENTRIES · 1979 – 10 OCT 2026The record starts in 1979, with the revolution and the break with the United States, and runs through the nuclear dispute and the conflict with Israel and the Gulf states to today.
Key events, newest first — a selected record, not every day's news. Entries with a score are this tracker's own assessments; the rest are verified history, each citing its source.
Newest entry: 10 Oct 2026. A daily report adds an entry when it records a significant development; the latest report, from 10 Oct 2026, is on the Iran War page.
- 2026-10-10 AM
The IRGC struck the LPG carrier NV Sunshine in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy reported that the Vietnamese-owned LPG carrier NV Sunshine caught fire after being struck during an unauthorized transit south of the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-10-09 AM
President Trump stated the United States will not attack Iran before November midterms
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States will avoid strikes on Iran prior to the November 3 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive indirect negotiations.
- 2026-10-08 AM
Oman evacuated 10 injured crew members after a tanker strike near Limah
A projectile struck the Panamanian-flagged tanker On Peace off Limah, injuring 12 crew members including 11 Indian nationals. The Royal Air Force of Oman evacuated the wounded to a hospital in Khasab.
- 2026-10-07 AM
Iran-backed forces reportedly intercepted and turned back a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ordered a merchant vessel to reverse course in the Strait of Hormuz, marking a direct challenge to commercial shipping. This follows a surge in projectile attacks on tankers, including an engine-room fire on the On Peace tanker.
- 2026-10-06 AM
United States withdrew B-1 bombers from Britain's RAF Fairford back to American bases
The United States Air Force redeployed B-1 strategic bombers from RAF Fairford to domestic bases following an unexploded ordnance alert nearby. The move reduces rapid bomber sortie generation capabilities against Iranian targets.
- 2026-10-05 AM
Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned amid the United States crude export blockade.
Paknejad stepped down on Sunday, leaving Hamid Bovard as acting oil minister to manage disrupted export operations under intense enforcement of the American maritime counterblockade.
- 2026-10-04 AM
Unannounced Camp David meeting weighs options as additional United States naval forces deploy.
President Donald Trump convened senior national security officials at Camp David while another aircraft carrier strike group and additional military personnel moved toward the Middle East.
- 2026-10-03 AM
Iran's Strait Authority acknowledged strikes on three UAE-linked tankers in Hormuz.
The Persian Gulf Strait Authority reported striking the tankers Al Ruwais, Sinbad, and Mersin Prosperity over alleged transit violations, amid concurrent reports of a burning supertanker.
- 2026-10-02 AM
United States Treasury sanctioned Iran's automotive and rail industrial sectors
The United States Treasury designated domestic transport and manufacturing firms, including Iran Khodro and SAIPA, under Operation Economic Outcast to disrupt non-maritime trade corridors.
- 2026-09-30 AM
United States military prepares to complete withdrawal of remaining forces from Iraq
American military personnel are scheduled to finalize their departure from Iraqi bases on Wednesday, ending a 12-year presence amid rising regional hostilities.
- 2026-09-29 AM
US dispatches aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to Middle East
The United States dispatched the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to the Middle East, expanding its naval strike carrier presence in the regional conflict.
- 2026-09-29 AM
Iran captured a U.S. REMUS 600 underwater drone in the Strait of Hormuz, asserting expanded surveillance capabilities.
The IRGC Navy seized the drone on September 28, marking a second such capture in weeks and challenging U.S. claims of control over the waterway. Tehran framed it as evidence of growing electronic-warfare dominance.
- 2026-09-25 AM
UAE suspends Iranian flights under US secondary aviation sanctions
The United Arab Emirates suspended all flights operated by Iranian airlines to enforce United States secondary aviation sanctions.
- 2026-09-23 AM
Iranian foreign minister meets US special envoy at United Nations
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff for three hours of talks at the United Nations in New York.
- 2026-09-18 AM
Russia and China veto UN resolution extending Iran sanctions monitoring
Russia and China vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution to extend independent monitoring of international sanctions on Iran.
- 2026-09-12 AM
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10 PM
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09 PM
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08 AM
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31 PM
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24 AM
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22 PM
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19 AM
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
- 2026-08-17 AM
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14 AM
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13 AM
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
- 2026-08-12 PM81 ◆
Iran reports no progress in peace talks with U.S. amid Hormuz dispute
Iran stated that no progress has been made toward reviving an interim peace agreement with the United States. Negotiations remain stalled over maritime access and naval enforcement within the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-08-12 PM
Iran rejects ceasefire extension with Washington as disputes over Strait of Hormuz control stall peace talks
Tehran publicly denied reports of extending a ceasefire with the United States, maintaining its refusal to compromise until its demands are met. The diplomatic impasse coincides with contesting assertions over maritime control and transit security in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-08-12 PM
U.S. forces fire on vessel ignoring Strait of Hormuz blockade amid frozen peace negotiations
U.S. forces reportedly engaged a commercial vessel that bypassed blockade parameters in the Strait of Hormuz. Concurrently, Iranian officials reported no progress toward extending or reviving interim peace arrangements with Washington.
- 2026-08-12 PM
Iran denies ceasefire extension talks with U.S. amid fresh maritime attacks
Tehran publicly denied reports of discussing a truce extension with Washington as fresh shipping attacks occurred near the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Both sides maintain aggressive military postures while diplomatic initiatives stall.
- as of 2026-08-12
Unresolved U.S.-Iran hostilities, Gulf insecurity, and nuclear verification gap
The June peace announcement and MOU remain official diplomatic records, but renewed July U.S.-Iran combat and continuing attacks affecting Gulf states and shipping show that durable implementation is not verified. The February-April U.S.-Israeli campaign entered suspension; no approved baseline source establishes Israeli participation in the July U.S. rounds. The IAEA still cannot verify most current nuclear inventory or activity beyond limited Bushehr access. No final comprehensive peace treaty or continuously observed permanent ceasefire is verified.
UN note on renewed Gulf confrontations, 8 July 2026 · IAEA, GOV/2026/33 · GCC statement on UAE tanker attack, 8 August 2026
- 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-08
GCC reports continuing attacks on Kuwait and a UAE tanker
The GCC Secretary-General condemned reported Iranian attacks on a government facility and private civilian equipment on Kuwait Bubiyan Island on 1 August and a reported attack on a UAE ADNOC tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz on 8 August. Treat incident details, damage, actor attribution, weapon type, and legal characterization according to evidence for each event.
GCC statement on attacks in Kuwait, 1 August 2026 · GCC statement on UAE tanker attack, 8 August 2026
- 2026-07-28 to 2026-07-29
U.S.-Saudi strikes in Iraq and a new U.S.-Iran missile-and-strike sequence
CENTCOM announced that U.S. and Saudi forces struck logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq associated with Iran-aligned groups. CENTCOM also reported Iranian ballistic-missile launches toward U.S. forces and a heavy U.S. strike wave against IRGC targets. Joint action is established only for the identified U.S.-Saudi operation; IRGC direction, launch totals, interceptions, and effects remain U.S. claims unless corroborated.
CENTCOM, U.S.-Saudi strikes in Iraq · CENTCOM, strikes after attempted Iranian attacks
- 2026-07-07 to 2026-07-29
United States conducts repeated July strikes and asserts a naval blockade
CENTCOM announced repeated strikes against Iranian military, coastal, missile, drone, surveillance, and maritime targets from 7 through at least 29 July. U.S. authorities also described naval measures as a blockade. Strike counts, interceptions, degradation, navigation status, and blockade legality remain U.S. claims or require independent corroboration. Baseline sources do not establish Israeli participation in these July rounds.
CENTCOM, additional strikes, 8 July 2026 · CENTCOM, thirteenth night of strikes · U.S. State Department, Hormuz measures
- 2026-07-02 to 2026-07-09
Renewed U.S.-Iran confrontation accompanies attacks on Gulf states and shipping
The Security Council met after renewed U.S.-Iran military confrontation and fresh shipping incidents. GCC states reported attacks affecting tankers and member states. These records establish official reports and condemnations; vessel damage, method, responsibility, and every claimed MOU violation must remain tied to the reporting source.
UN Security Council meeting coverage, 2 July 2026 · GCC statement, 9 July 2026 · UN note on renewed Gulf confrontations, 8 July 2026
- 2026-06-14 to 2026-06-25
U.S.-Iran peace announcement, MOU, and U.S.-GCC follow-up
The United Nations welcomed an announced U.S.-Iran peace deal providing for an immediate ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and further negotiations. The United States and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding in France, and U.S. and GCC ministers issued a follow-up statement. These were real diplomatic acts, not proof of complete implementation or a final comprehensive peace treaty.
UN Secretary-General statement, 14 June 2026 · White House, MOU signing · U.S.-GCC ministerial joint statement
- as of 2026-06-10
IAEA can verify Bushehr but not most of Iran nuclear inventory or activity
The IAEA observed additional damage at Natanz and severe damage at the Khondab Heavy Water Production Plant after reported attacks, while the UN documented humanitarian effects in Iran. Except for limited Bushehr access, the Agency lacked required information and access to verify most declared facilities, the uranium stockpile, enrichment activity, centrifuge inventories, reprocessing, or heavy-water activity. Do not present the program as destroyed, intact, dormant, or weaponized as a verified current fact.
IAEA, GOV/2026/33 · UN in Iran, Humanitarian Update, 17 March 2026
- 2026-04-13 to 2026-05-14
Hormuz crisis produces U.S. blockade claims and multinational defensive planning
U.S. records later described an initial blockade against traffic to and from Iranian ports beginning 13 April. The United States proposed a Security Council resolution on freedom of navigation, and the United Kingdom and France announced multinational mission planning. A proposal or prepared mission is not proof of deployment; use blockade only as an attributed characterization unless independently established.
U.S. proposal on freedom of navigation · UK-France multinational mission statement
- 2026-04-07 to 2026-04-08
Two-week cessation of major hostilities is announced
The UN Secretary-General welcomed announcement of a two-week ceasefire after six weeks of intense hostilities. Israel stated support for a two-week suspension under specified conditions. The announcements did not prove complete compliance, permanent peace, or inclusion of every armed group and theater.
UN Secretary-General statement, 7 April 2026 · Israel PMO statement, 8 April 2026
- 2026-02-28 to 2026-03-11
Iranian retaliation reaches Gulf states and Security Council adopts Resolution 2817
Iran launched missiles and drones toward Israel, U.S. positions, and sites in neighboring states. The GCC reported attacks beginning 28 February against all six member states. The Security Council adopted Resolution 2817. Preserve each state impact, interception, casualty, and Iranian rationale as a separate claim.
GCC extraordinary ministerial statement, 1 March 2026 · UNSC Resolution 2817
- 2026-02-28 to 2026-03-09
Ali Khamenei dies and Mojtaba Khamenei is selected Supreme Leader
Iran confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during the opening attacks and attributed the killing to the United States and Israel. Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs later announced that the Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader. The succession is confirmed; policy consequences must not be inferred.
Iran letter to the UN, S/2026/109 · Iran MFA, selection of Mojtaba Khamenei
- 2026-02-28
United States and Israel launch a new military campaign against Iran
The United States and Israel launched new attacks on Iran. The United States called its campaign Operation Epic Fury and Israel called its campaign Operation Roaring Lion. Operation names, objectives, target effects, casualties, and legal rationales remain party terminology unless independently verified.
White House, launch of Operation Epic Fury · IDF live updates, 28 February 2026
- 2026-02-17 and 2026-02-26
United States and Iran hold indirect talks in Geneva
The United States and Iran held indirect negotiations in Geneva, with the IAEA Director General providing advice on nuclear-verification issues. The talks did not produce a verified final agreement before the next military escalation.
- 2025-06-24
Ceasefire ends the principal Twelve-Day War exchange
A ceasefire brought the principal twelve-day Israel-Iran exchange to an end. Entry into force and later compliance must remain separate from the announcement. The ceasefire did not settle the nuclear dispute or create permanent U.S.-Iran peace.
- 2025-06-23
Iran attacks Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar
Iran attacked Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar after the U.S. strikes. Qatar condemned the attack. Treat launch totals, interception claims, casualties, damage, intended targets, and Qatar role separately; hosting a U.S. base did not make Qatar responsible for the preceding U.S. operation.
- 2025-06-22
United States strikes Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan
The United States struck Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in Operation Midnight Hammer, entering the direct war militarily. U.S. assertions about destruction or long-term setback are party assessments and must not replace IAEA verification.
White House, U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities · IAEA, GOV/2026/33
- 2025-06-13 to 2025-06-24
Iran conducts sustained missile and drone attacks against Israel
Iran launched sustained missiles and drones at Israel in response to the Israeli campaign. Record each launch count, interception, impact, casualty, and military effect from dated evidence rather than carrying cumulative party claims forward.
- 2025-06-13
Israel launches a large military campaign against Iran
Israel launched a large campaign against Iran, including strikes on nuclear facilities, military assets, and senior personnel. The operation name, objectives, casualty totals, and claimed target effects remain party descriptions unless independently verified.
- 2025-06-12
IAEA Board finds Iran in non-compliance with safeguards obligations
The IAEA Board found that Iran's failures to cooperate fully and in time on undeclared nuclear material and activities constituted non-compliance with its safeguards obligations. This was not a finding that Iran possessed a nuclear weapon.
- 2025-06 to 2025-11
IAEA access collapses, UN measures return, and a safeguards arrangement fails
IAEA verification stopped during the attacks and inspectors withdrew for safety. Iran enacted a law suspending cooperation, while the Agency maintained that the comprehensive safeguards agreement could not be suspended by domestic law. A later Cairo arrangement did not restore full verification; prior UN measures were reapplied through the Resolution 2231 process, and Iran later regarded the Cairo arrangement as terminated.
IAEA, GOV/2025/53 · UNSC Resolution 2231 background · IAEA, GOV/2026/33
- 2025-02-04 to 2025-04-12
Renewed U.S. maximum pressure is followed by Oman-mediated talks
The United States restored a maximum-pressure policy directing sanctions enforcement against Iran. In April, U.S. and Iranian representatives held talks in Muscat through Omani mediation and agreed to continue discussions. The meeting did not itself constitute a nuclear agreement.
- 2024-10-01 to 2024-10-26
Iran and Israel conduct a second overt direct exchange
Iran launched a large ballistic-missile attack against Israel and acknowledged the action in a letter to the United Nations. Israel later acknowledged strikes against military targets in several areas of Iran. Targeting, interception, casualties, damage, and military effects require separate verification.
Iran letter to the UN, S/2024/713 · IDF, acknowledged strikes in Iran, 26 October 2024
- 2024-04-13 to 2024-04-19
First overt large-scale direct Iran-Israel exchange
Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles from its territory toward Israel, citing the Damascus strike. U.S. and partner forces helped intercept incoming weapons. Explosions and a reported response followed near Isfahan on 19 April; Israel did not formally claim that operation, and the IAEA reported no damage to Iranian nuclear facilities.
UN Secretary-General remarks, 14 April 2024 · UN statement on reported strikes in Iran, 19 April 2024
- 2024-04-01
Strike destroys an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus
A strike destroyed an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus and killed senior IRGC personnel. Iran and other speakers attributed the attack to Israel; Israel did not issue a contemporaneous formal acknowledgment. Preserve legal characterization and responsibility as attributed claims.
- 2023-10-07 onward
Gaza war triggers wider regional escalation and U.S. force-posture changes
The Hamas-led attack in Israel and ensuing Gaza war became the immediate context for attacks by multiple Iran-aligned groups and major U.S. force-posture changes. Do not infer that Iran ordered the 7 October attack or commanded every later operation without event-specific evidence.
UN Secretary-General statement, 7 October 2023 · U.S. Department of Defense force-posture statement
- 2023-10 to 2024-02-02
Attacks on U.S. forces culminate at Tower 22 and prompt U.S. strikes
Groups described by U.S. authorities as Iran-aligned conducted sustained drone and rocket attacks on U.S. and coalition positions in Iraq and Syria. A drone struck Tower 22 in Jordan on 28 January 2024, killing three U.S. service members; the United States then struck facilities in Iraq and Syria. Alignment does not prove a direct Iranian order for every attack.
- 2023-03-10
Saudi Arabia and Iran agree to restore diplomatic relations
Saudi Arabia and Iran, with China as host and facilitator, agreed to restore diplomatic relations, reopen missions, and reactivate earlier cooperation agreements. This was bilateral normalization, not a comprehensive GCC-Iran security settlement.
- 2021-04 to 2022-06
Enrichment reaches 60 percent and monitoring continuity deteriorates
The IAEA verified Iranian production of uranium enriched up to 60 percent U-235 in 2021. In June 2022, the Board censured insufficient cooperation on outstanding safeguards issues, and Iran removed or disabled specified JCPOA-related surveillance equipment. Sixty-percent enrichment is not itself proof of a weapon.
- 2019-12-27 to 2020-01-08
Iraq attacks, U.S. killing of Soleimani, and Iranian missile response
After attacks and U.S. strikes involving Kataib Hezbollah, a U.S. strike near Baghdad airport killed IRGC-Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iran then launched ballistic missiles at bases hosting U.S. forces in Iraq. Preserve self-defence claims, responsibility, injuries, and effects with their sources.
U.S. Lead Inspector General, OIR Oct-Dec 2019 · U.S. Lead Inspector General, OIR Jan-Mar 2020
- 2019-09-14
Abqaiq and Khurais energy facilities are attacked
Missile and drone attacks damaged Saudi Aramco facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais and temporarily disrupted a large share of Saudi production. The Houthis claimed responsibility; Saudi Arabia and the United States linked the operation to Iran. Preserve the attack separately from disputed launch-site and command claims.
- 2019-05-12 to 2019-06-13
Commercial vessels are attacked near Fujairah and in the Gulf of Oman
Four commercial vessels were damaged near Fujairah in May and two tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman in June. The IMO condemned the attacks. The United States attributed the June incidents to Iran; responsibility, method, and intent remained disputed and must stay source-specific.
International Maritime Organization, tanker attacks · U.S. letter to Security Council, S/2019/536
- 2018-05-08 to 2019-07
United States withdraws from JCPOA and Iran reduces commitments
The United States withdrew from the JCPOA and restored U.S. sanctions. Other participants did not withdraw at that time. Beginning one year later, Iran announced phased reductions in its commitments, and the IAEA verified that Iran exceeded stockpile and enrichment limits. Iran's comprehensive safeguards agreement remained in force.
Trump White House archive, JCPOA withdrawal · IAEA, Iran Board reports
- 2015-07-14 to 2016-01-16
JCPOA, Resolution 2231, and Implementation Day
Iran and the E3/EU+3 concluded the JCPOA, establishing nuclear limits, verification measures, and sanctions-related commitments. Security Council Resolution 2231 endorsed the arrangement. On Implementation Day, the IAEA verified specified Iranian steps and defined sanctions relief followed.
IAEA, JCPOA text · UNSC Resolution 2231 · IAEA, Implementation Day
- 2002 to 2010
Iran safeguards dispute reaches the Security Council
Public disclosures concerning Natanz and Arak led to intensified IAEA scrutiny. The Agency documented failures to report required nuclear material and activities. The Board found Iran in non-compliance in 2005 and reported the matter to the Security Council, which adopted demands and sanctions concerning enrichment, missiles, procurement, and related cooperation.
IAEA, GOV/2003/40 · UN Security Council, Iran sanctions resolutions
- 1988-04-14 to 1988-07-03
Direct U.S.-Iran naval confrontation and destruction of Iran Air 655
After USS Samuel B. Roberts struck a mine, the United States conducted Operation Praying Mantis against Iranian naval and offshore targets. On 3 July, USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655, killing all aboard. Related ICJ proceedings later ended by settlement without a merits judgment assigning criminal liability.
U.S. Naval History, Operation Praying Mantis · ICJ, Aerial Incident of 3 July 1988
- 1979-02 to 1981-01
Iranian Revolution, embassy hostage crisis, and U.S.-Iran rupture
The Iranian Revolution ended the monarchy and established the Islamic Republic. Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in November 1979 and held American personnel for 444 days. The United States severed diplomatic relations in April 1980; the hostages were released in January 1981. Iran's relationship with Israel also shifted from cooperation to sustained hostility.
U.S. Department of State, Iranian Revolution · U.S. Department of State, Hostage Crisis
— BEGINNING OF RECORD —
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Why it moved▲ 0.5 · 10 OCTCasualties reported
72.1 → 72.6
The day’s reporting:
- ▲Casualties reported — before: no casualties reported
From Iran International · 9 Oct 2026At least five members of Iranian forces killed in four southeast attacksFDD's Long War Journal · 9 Oct 2026Insurgent attacks surge in southeastern IranTehran Times · 9 Oct 2026IRGC reports fire aboard LPG carrier in Strait of Hormuz, warns against unauthorized transit
The conflict’s stage held.
- Direction
- Escalating sharply (+11.7 / 7d)
- Severity
- Extreme (72.6 / 100)
- Connections
- Very high (~5 of 8)
- Cascade
- High (#1 of 9)
How this was measured
| Internationalization18% | 50 | ◆ | |
| Ground combat16% | 22 | ◆ | |
| Standoff strikes14% | 60 | ◆ | |
| Nuclear escalation12% | 0 | ▼ -58 | |
| Mobilization12% | 65 | ◆ | |
| Crisis control10% | 82 | ◆ | |
| Territorial control8% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Geographic spillover7% | 64 | ◆ | |
| Infrastructure3% | 70 | ◆ |
- ▲ 5.8 The IRGC Navy reported a fire aboard the LPG carrier NV Sunshine in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it was struck while transiting an unauthorized route. maritime chokepoint disruption · reported single
- ▲ 4.8 U.S. President Trump stated that productive discussions are underway with Iran, while emphasizing no attack before the November 3 midterms and demanding meaningful reductions in Iranian enrichment capacity. diplomatic break · reported multiple
- ▲ 1.1 Baluch insurgent coalition JMM claimed five attacks in seven days in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, killing at least five Iranian security personnel. cross border incident · reported multiple
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →