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INDIA – PAKISTAN
42 ENTRIES · 1947 – TODAYEvery recorded development, newest first. Entries carrying a score are this tracker's own assessments; the rest are the canonical record — verified history, each entry citing its source.
- 2026-08-12 PM
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12 PM
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12 PM
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
- 2026-08-12 AM
India adds Attari crossing to e-visa network while tightening border infrastructure personnel rules.
- 2026-08-12
Current anchor: halted large-scale hostilities, unresolved rivalry, and contested water regime
No verified renewed large-scale direct India-Pakistan hostilities are established after the 10 May 2025 cessation understanding. No peace treaty, Kashmir settlement, terrorism-accountability settlement, or broad diplomatic normalization is verified. India continues to treat Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh as integral parts and the IWT as held in abeyance; Pakistan continues to reject those positions and seek a Kashmir and treaty settlement on its stated terms.
UNMOGIP current fact sheet · India position on Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, 5 August 2026 · Pakistan position on Jammu and Kashmir, 5 August 2026
- 2026-08-11 PM
Indian security agencies issue alerts over potential cross-border threats ahead of Independence Day.
- 2026-08-10 PM
Indian Border Security Force launches pre-Independence Day security operations along the Pakistan border.
- 2026-05-15 to 2026-06-30
A supplemental Indus award is accepted by Pakistan and rejected by India
The contested Court of Arbitration issued a supplemental award concerning maximum pondage. India said it had never recognized the court, rejected the award as null and void, and reiterated that its decision to hold the IWT in abeyance remained in force. Pakistan treated the award as authoritative and continued to demand full treaty implementation. The legal status and operational consequences remain disputed.
India response rejecting the 15 May 2026 award · Pakistan address on the IWT and supplemental award
- 2026-01-01 to 2026-07-01
Nuclear-installation and prisoner-list exchanges preserve limited official channels
India and Pakistan exchanged lists of nuclear installations and facilities on 1 January under the 1988 agreement. On 1 July they exchanged lists of civilian prisoners and fishermen in custody under the 2008 consular-access framework. These routine exchanges show that narrow institutional channels remain functional; they do not establish political normalization or compliance with every humanitarian request.
India-Pakistan nuclear-installation list exchange, 1 January 2026 · India-Pakistan prisoner-list exchange, 1 July 2026
- 2025-08-08 to 2025-08-14
Indus arbitration award deepens the legal and institutional dispute
The IWT Court of Arbitration issued an award on issues of general interpretation concerning run-of-river hydroelectric design on the western rivers. Pakistan welcomed the award as supporting its treaty interpretation. India, which did not recognize or participate in the court, rejected the forum and award and maintained its abeyance position. Do not present either party's legal conclusion as an uncontested final settlement.
Pakistan welcomes the 8 August 2025 award · PCA press release, Western Rivers Arbitration
- 2025-05-10
Pakistan launches Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos and the DGMOs agree to stop military action
Pakistan announced Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos against Indian military targets after reporting further Indian attacks. India and Pakistan made incompatible claims about air-base, aircraft, air-defence, and infrastructure damage. Later that day, the Pakistani DGMO called the Indian DGMO and they agreed to stop all firing and military action on land, in the air, and at sea from 17:00 India time. Pakistan also credited international facilitation; India emphasized the direct DGMO channel.
India Foreign Secretary statement on the DGMO understanding · Pakistan statement on Bunyan-um-Marsoos and the ceasefire · UN Secretary-General welcomes the ceasefire
- 2025-05-08 to 2025-05-09
Drone, missile, air-defence, and artillery exchanges widen the confrontation
India and Pakistan reported waves of drones or loitering munitions, attempted strikes on military targets, air-defence engagements, and heavy fire across the LoC. Each side accused the other of escalation and issued incompatible claims about interceptions, destroyed systems, airfields, and casualties. Canonize only independently established impacts or each party's own acknowledged action; do not aggregate all detected objects as successful attacks.
India special briefing, 8 May 2025 · Pakistan Foreign Ministry briefing, 9 May 2025
- 2025-05-07
India launches Operation Sindoor against sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir
India announced strikes on nine sites it described as terrorist infrastructure, saying no Pakistani military establishments were targeted. Pakistan characterized the strikes as aggression against civilian locations, reported casualties, and denied India's terrorism rationale. The occurrence of cross-border strikes is confirmed; target function, militant presence, civilian and combatant casualties, and effectiveness remain dependent on attributed or later evidence.
India special briefing on Operation Sindoor, 7 May · Pakistan statement condemning the Indian strikes
- 2025-04-23 to 2025-04-24
India and Pakistan impose reciprocal diplomatic, travel, trade, and water measures
India announced that the IWT would be held in abeyance, closed the Attari crossing, cancelled specified visas, expelled service advisers, and reduced mission strength. Pakistan rejected IWT abeyance as unlawful, closed Wagah, suspended visas and trade, closed airspace to Indian-owned or operated airlines, expelled advisers, reduced mission strength, and said it could hold bilateral agreements including Simla in abeyance. These were announced acts and positions, not proof that every treaty was legally terminated.
India CCS decisions, 23 April 2025 · Pakistan National Security Committee decisions, 24 April 2025
- 2025-04-22
Pahalgam terrorist attack kills 26 civilians and triggers a major crisis
Gunmen attacked tourists near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, killing 25 Indian nationals and one Nepali citizen. The Security Council condemned the attack and called for those responsible to be held accountable. India said cross-border linkages were established and later attributed the attack to Pakistan-linked LeT/TRF actors; Pakistan denied responsibility and called for a neutral investigation. The UN condemnation did not assign state responsibility.
UN Security Council press statement on Pahalgam · India special briefing on the investigation and Operation Sindoor
- 2023-07-06
Indus treaty dispute proceeds through contested parallel mechanisms
A Court of Arbitration constituted under the IWT issued an award finding itself competent in proceedings initiated by Pakistan over hydroelectric-project design questions. India did not participate and maintained that the matter belonged before the separately appointed Neutral Expert. The World Bank had made appointments for both mechanisms while stating that the treaty did not empower it to choose one over the other. Record each institution and objection without resolving the legal dispute independently.
World Bank, IWT procedures and appointments · Court of Arbitration press release on competence
- 2022-03-09 to 2022-03-12
An accidentally fired Indian missile lands in Pakistan
India acknowledged that a missile was accidentally fired during routine maintenance because of a technical malfunction and landed in Pakistan. India expressed regret and ordered a court of inquiry. Pakistan demanded fuller answers and a joint probe. No evidence established a deliberate strike or nuclear payload; do not infer either from the missile's route or the strategic context.
Government of India statement on accidental firing · Pakistan response demanding a joint probe
- 2021-02-25
DGMOs reaffirm strict observance of LoC ceasefire agreements
The Indian and Pakistani Directors General of Military Operations agreed to strict observance of all agreements, understandings, and ceasefire arrangements along the LoC and all other sectors from midnight 24-25 February. They also agreed to use hotlines and flag-meeting mechanisms. This was a reaffirmation and implementation step, not a new border or political settlement.
- 2019-08-05 to 2019-10-31
India changes Article 370 arrangements and reorganizes Jammu and Kashmir
India ended the special constitutional arrangements associated with Article 370 and reorganized the former state into the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. Pakistan rejected the action and downgraded relations. India's Supreme Court upheld the core constitutional changes in December 2023. These were Indian domestic acts, not a mutually accepted sovereignty settlement.
Supreme Court of India judgment, historical and legal record · Pakistan Foreign Ministry demarche on the 2019 actions
- 2019-02-27 to 2019-03-01
Pakistan responds by air; aircraft engage and an Indian pilot is captured then released
Pakistan conducted an air operation across the LoC area, followed by aerial combat. India acknowledged losing a MiG-21 and that its pilot was captured; Pakistan released him on 1 March. The parties made incompatible claims about additional Indian or Pakistani aircraft losses and targeting outcomes. Preserve the confirmed MiG-21 loss and pilot sequence while leaving other claims attributed.
India statement on 27 February aerial engagement · Pakistan statement, Pakistan Strikes Back
- 2019-02-26
India strikes near Balakot inside Pakistan
India said its aircraft conducted a non-military pre-emptive strike on a JeM training camp near Balakot in Pakistan and claimed substantial militant casualties. Pakistan confirmed an Indian airspace incursion and release of munitions but disputed the target, damage, and casualties. No neutral casualty figure or complete battle-damage assessment is canonical.
India Foreign Secretary statement on Balakot · Pakistan briefing on the Indian incursion
- 2019-02-14
Pulwama suicide bombing kills 40 Indian paramilitary personnel
A suicide bomber attacked a convoy of India's Central Reserve Police Force near Pulwama, killing 40 personnel. JeM claimed responsibility. India linked the group and support infrastructure to Pakistan; Pakistan denied state involvement and later offered cooperation or investigation under conditions. The Security Council condemned the attack and named JeM's claim without assigning Pakistani state responsibility.
- 2016-09-29
India announces cross-LoC surgical strikes; Pakistan disputes that account
India announced that its forces conducted strikes across the LoC against launch pads used by teams allegedly preparing infiltration. Pakistan denied that any such cross-LoC raid occurred and described the event as routine or escalated LoC firing that killed Pakistani soldiers. Record that India announced an operation and Pakistan denied its characterization; do not invent independent target, casualty, or route details.
India joint MEA-MOD briefing · Pakistan Foreign Ministry briefing
- 2016-09-18
Attack on the Indian Army brigade headquarters at Uri raises LoC tensions
Militants attacked an Indian Army installation near Uri and killed Indian soldiers. India described the attackers as Pakistan-based and demanded action against terrorist infrastructure; Pakistan rejected allegations of state involvement. Do not convert location, equipment, or an official accusation into independent proof of command by the Pakistani state.
- 2016-01-02 to 2016-04-01
Pathankot air-base attack is followed by a Pakistan joint-investigation-team visit
Armed attackers struck the Indian Air Force station at Pathankot. India attributed the conspiracy to JeM-linked actors in Pakistan. A Pakistan Joint Investigation Team visited India in March and met India's National Investigation Agency, which presented evidence. The visit demonstrated limited investigative contact but did not establish a completed joint investigation, prosecution outcome, or durable dialogue revival.
- 2008-11-26 to 2008-11-29
Coordinated Mumbai attacks collapse the main dialogue process
Ten gunmen carried out coordinated shootings and bombings at multiple sites in Mumbai, causing mass civilian and security-force casualties. India identified LeT as the organization behind the attacks and traced planning and handlers to Pakistan; Pakistan later pursued cases against suspects while denying state direction.
- 2004-01-06 to 2007-02-21
Composite dialogue and military-risk confidence-building measures
India and Pakistan resumed a composite dialogue in 2004 after Pakistan committed not to permit territory under its control to support terrorism. The process produced travel links, ballistic-missile pre-notification, and a nuclear-accident risk-reduction agreement. These mechanisms reduced risk but did not settle Kashmir or terrorism disputes.
India-Pakistan joint statement, 6 January 2004 · Ballistic-missile pre-notification agreement
- 2003-11-25
A ceasefire understanding takes effect across the LoC and related sectors
Pakistan proposed a ceasefire and India announced that it would reciprocate along the international boundary, LoC, and AGPL/Siachen sector from midnight. The understanding sharply reduced firing and enabled later dialogue. It did not alter the boundary, demilitarize the LoC, or resolve sovereignty and terrorism disputes.
- 2001-12-13 to 2002-10
Parliament attack triggers a prolonged India-Pakistan military standoff
Armed attackers assaulted India's Parliament complex on 13 December 2001. India attributed the conspiracy to Pakistan-based JeM and LeT networks and demanded action; Pakistan rejected state responsibility. Both states mobilized large forces along the international boundary and LoC, producing a months-long crisis before phased de-escalation.
UN Security Council press statement on the Parliament attack
- 1999-05 to 1999-07
Kargil conflict erupts across positions on the Indian side of the LoC
Indian forces fought personnel occupying high-altitude positions in the Kargil and Drass sectors on the Indian side of the LoC. India identified Pakistani regulars and infiltrators; Pakistan's public accounts evolved and disputed parts of India's narrative. Heavy ground combat and Indian air operations followed, and withdrawal restored the LoC positions.
- 1999-02-21
Lahore Declaration and nuclear memorandum expand confidence-building
Prime Ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif adopted the Lahore Declaration and a memorandum addressing nuclear risk, missile notification, accidental or unauthorized incidents, and continued dialogue under Simla. The documents were political and confidence-building commitments, not a peace treaty, disarmament agreement, or final Kashmir settlement.
UN Peacemaker, Lahore Declaration · UN Peacemaker, Lahore Memorandum of Understanding
- 1998-05-11 to 1998-05-30
India and Pakistan conduct overt nuclear test series
India conducted nuclear tests on 11 and 13 May 1998, following its 1974 test; Pakistan conducted tests on 28 and 30 May. Security Council resolution 1172 condemned both series and urged restraint and dialogue. Do not infer current arsenal size, deployment, or readiness from the tests.
CTBTO, India and Pakistan nuclear tests · UN Security Council resolution 1172
- 1991-04-06 to 1991-04-09
Agreements regulate military exercises, troop movements, and airspace
The states concluded agreements on advance notice of military exercises, maneuvers, and troop movements and on preventing airspace violations and permitting specified military overflights. These instruments reduce misperception but do not ban all exercises, deployments, or flights. A breach must be established from competent evidence rather than inferred from proximity alone.
Agreement on military exercises and troop movements · Agreement on prevention of airspace violations
- 1989 onward
Insurgency and counterinsurgency intensify in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir
Armed insurgency, political unrest, counterinsurgency, militant infiltration, and security-force operations intensified from 1989. Civilians, militants, police, and military personnel suffered sustained violence and serious human-rights allegations.
- 1988-12-31
Non-attack agreement protects listed nuclear installations and facilities
India and Pakistan signed an agreement prohibiting each from undertaking, encouraging, or participating in action aimed at destroying or damaging nuclear installations or facilities in the other country. It entered into force in 1991 and created annual list exchanges. The list exchange is a risk-reduction mechanism, not a complete public inventory or inspection regime.
- 1984-04
India and Pakistan establish opposing military positions in the Siachen sector
India launched Operation Meghdoot and occupied key high-altitude positions in the Siachen-Saltoro area; Pakistan deployed opposing forces and subsequent fighting established an Actual Ground Position Line. The 1949 and 1972 line descriptions did not fully demarcate the glacier sector beyond NJ9842.
- 1972-07-02
Simla Agreement creates the modern bilateral and LoC framework
India and Pakistan agreed to settle differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations or other mutually agreed peaceful means, respect the LoC resulting from the 17 December 1971 ceasefire, and work toward normalization. The ceasefire line was redesignated as the LoC without prejudice to either side's recognized position.
- 1971-12-03 to 1971-12-17
The 1971 India-Pakistan war ends with Bangladesh independent
War broke out on the western and eastern fronts amid the crisis in East Pakistan. Pakistani forces in the east surrendered in Dhaka and Bangladesh emerged as an independent state; fighting on the western front also ceased. Security Council resolution 307 demanded a durable ceasefire and withdrawal.
- 1965-08 to 1966-01-10
The 1965 war ends with a UN ceasefire and the Tashkent Declaration
India and Pakistan fought a large conventional war in and beyond the Kashmir theater during August and September 1965. A Security Council ceasefire took effect, and the UN India-Pakistan Observation Mission monitored withdrawal. At Tashkent in January 1966, the parties agreed to withdraw forces, restore diplomatic relations, and work toward peaceful relations.
- 1960-09-19
India, Pakistan, and the World Bank sign the Indus Waters Treaty
India and Pakistan signed the IWT, with the World Bank also signing for specified treaty purposes. Broadly, the eastern rivers were allocated for India's unrestricted use and the western rivers for Pakistan's unrestricted use subject to detailed exceptions and obligations. The treaty created the Permanent Indus Commission and graded procedures for questions, differences, and disputes.
- 1949-01-01 to 1949-07-29
Ceasefire, Karachi Agreement, and UN military observation
A ceasefire took effect on 1 January 1949. The Karachi Agreement of 29 July established and described a ceasefire line and arrangements for UN military observers. UNMOGIP traces its present deployment to this framework. The line was later redesignated as the LoC under Simla; it was not an agreed international border or final sovereignty settlement.
- 1947-08 to 1948-12
Partition, accession dispute, and the first India-Pakistan war
British India was partitioned into India and Pakistan in August 1947. The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir became the subject of competing claims after armed incursions, the Maharaja's Instrument of Accession to India, and deployment of Indian and Pakistani forces. The Security Council addressed the fighting and adopted resolution 47 in April 1948.
— BEGINNING OF RECORD —
- Direction
- Holding steady (0 / 7d)
- Severity
- Low (11 / 100)
- Connections
- Limited (~3 of 8)
- Cascade
- Low (#9 of 9)
How this was measured
| Internationalization18% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Ground combat16% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Standoff strikes14% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Nuclear escalation12% | 0 | ▼ -12 | |
| Mobilization12% | 12 | ◆ | |
| Crisis control10% | 48 | ◆ | |
| Territorial control8% | 10 | ◆ | |
| Geographic spillover7% | 10 | ◆ | |
| Infrastructure3% | 15 | ◆ |
- ▲ 1.9 hostile rhetoric · unverified
- IND
- RUS
- US
- PAK
- CHN
- LET
- JEM
- JAA
- HZM
- BLF
- AQC
- ISK
- ZNB
- HGB
- TTP
- BLA
- TWN → CHN · CHINA-TAIWAN ↔ INDIA-PAKISTAN
Scam targeted Taiwanese abroad, police say - Taipei Times16 sources - SYR → RUS · INDIA-PAKISTAN ↔ TURKEY-EASTMED
Assad-era Officer Convicted in Austria Reportedly Returns to Syria a Free Man6 sources - UKR → RUS · INDIA-PAKISTAN (external actor)
Putin loses 43K soldiers in Ukraine in one of war's bloodiest months220 sources
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Recomputed every third day, from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number. Between recomputations the index holds its last value rather than being re-judged without new evidence. Full construction →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the board a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
WWIII.REPORT tracks the armed conflicts and flashpoints with the potential to escalate toward a global war. Every day, open-source reporting from every active theater is assessed into its 0-100 War Index, key developments, and a full situation report. A separate WW3 risk index measures how close those separate conflicts are to becoming one war.
Daily at 17:00 UTC. How the index is built · All pages
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