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Yemen War Timeline: Houthis & Saudi Arabia
70 ENTRIES · 2004 – 10 OCT 2026Key events, newest first — a selected record, not every day's news. Entries with a score are this tracker's own assessments; the rest are verified history, each citing its source.
Newest entry: 10 Oct 2026. A daily report adds an entry when it records a significant development; the latest report, from 10 Oct 2026, is on the Yemen War & Houthi Attacks page.
- 2026-10-10 AM
Ansar Allah missile strikes killed three people and hit an airliner at Riyadh's airport.
Saudi authorities confirmed the deaths of three citizens, including an airline pilot, after strikes hit King Khalid International Airport and damaged a commercial plane. Ansar Allah claimed cruise missile strikes against the aviation hub alongside targets in Najran and Khamis Mushait.
- 2026-10-09 AM
Saudi air defenses intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh and Khamis Mushait.
Debris from the intercepted missiles damaged a kindergarten and medical clinic in Riyadh, while foreign embassies instructed staff to shelter in place.
- 2026-10-07 AM
Ansar Allah launched two ballistic missiles targeting Aden International Airport.
Two ballistic missiles fired by Ansar Allah targeted Aden International Airport in southern Yemen. The strike directly targeted the primary civil aviation facility in the government-held interim capital.
- 2026-10-06 AM
Turkey and Pakistan agreed to deploy troops to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca pact.
Following talks in Riyadh, Turkey and Pakistan activated collective defense commitments under the Mecca pact to reinforce Saudi Arabia against Houthi strikes.
- 2026-10-05 AM
Yemen's presidential council launched a nationwide offensive to recapture all Houthi-held territory.
Presidential Leadership Council Chairman Rashad al-Alimi ordered armed formations on Sunday to execute plans to reclaim all areas under Ansar Allah control. The Saudi-led coalition formally pledged comprehensive operational and aerial support to back the campaign.
- 2026-10-04 AM
Ansar Allah claimed missile and drone strikes on an Aramco refinery in Riyadh.
Houthi forces stated they targeted an Aramco oil installation south of Riyadh with ballistic missiles and unmanned aircraft, where smoke was observed rising from the complex. Coalition spokesmen rejected the claim as misleading, while Saudi officials did not publicly confirm the cause of the fire.
- 2026-10-03 PM
Saudi authorities reported a resident injured by intercepted Houthi ballistic missile debris in Asir.
Saudi air defense units intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile over Ahad Rafidah in Asir province, where falling fragments injured one civilian and damaged a prayer room and multiple vehicles.
- 2026-10-03 AM
A Houthi projectile struck a school in Saudi Arabia's southern city of Najran.
Saudi Civil Defense responded after a Houthi projectile hit a school in Najran near the Yemeni border. The strike occurred alongside separate ballistic missile and drone interceptions across southern Saudi Arabia.
- 2026-10-02 AM
A Houthi drone struck a power station serving the Prophet's Mosque in Medina.
The attack damaged an electrical transformer at the Taiba distribution facility in Medina without disrupting the municipal power grid. Regional governments condemned the strike as cross-border missile and drone exchanges intensified.
- 2026-10-01 AM
Houthi forces seized coastal ridges near Bab al-Mandeb, advancing into key strategic terrain.
Ansar Allah fighters captured mountain chains in Lahj’s Al-Mudaraba and Ras al-Arah districts, overlooking Bab al-Mandeb, following a missile strike on government forces in Khur Amira. The gains threaten maritime chokepoints critical to Red Sea trade.
- 2026-09-30 AM
Yemeni Parliament approved a national general mobilization against Houthi forces following recent strategic losses.
The Yemeni Parliament voted to declare general mobilization as intense combat in Lahj province left dozens dead and Houthi forces captured key heights near the Bab al-Mandeb strait.
- 2026-09-28 AM
Saudi Arabia transitioned Riyadh schools to online learning following Houthi strike threats.
Saudi authorities moved schools in Riyadh to remote classes after air defenses intercepted Houthi drones launched toward the capital and ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait.
- 2026-09-25 PM
France committed troops and air defense systems to protect Saudi Arabia's Yanbu oil terminal.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced the dispatch of military personnel, radar units, and air defense systems to secure the Red Sea oil port of Yanbu. The deployment follows repeated Ansar Allah missile and drone salvos targeting western Saudi energy facilities.
- 2026-09-22 PM
United Kingdom approved RAF air-to-air refueling support for Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks.
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham authorized Royal Air Force Voyager tanker aircraft to provide air-to-air refueling for Saudi Arabian fighter jets. The time-limited deployment follows a formal request from Saudi Arabia to defend its territory and energy infrastructure.
- 2026-09-20 PM
Ansar Allah targeted Riyadh and Yanbu with ballistic missiles and drones.
Saudi air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile over Riyadh, while a fuel tank near King Khalid International Airport caught fire following reported drone impacts. Additional strikes targeted Aramco energy facilities in Yanbu and several southern Saudi regions.
- 2026-09-19 PM
Saudi Arabia activated emergency air raid alerts across seven regions, including Riyadh.
Saudi Civil Defense activated national early warning platforms in Riyadh, Jeddah, Taif, and five other regions following Houthi aerial attacks, while falling drone debris caused the first strike fatality in the Kingdom since recent hostilities resumed.
- 2026-09-18 PM
Ansar Allah forces shoot down Saudi F-15 over Marib
Verified video confirmed that Ansar Allah forces downed a Saudi Arabian F-15 fighter jet over Marib governorate.
- 2026-09-17 PM
Intercepted Houthi drone debris kills civilian in Saudi Arabia's Taif governorate
Falling debris from an intercepted Ansar Allah drone killed a Yemeni resident and injured two civilians in Taif governorate.
- 2026-09-12 PM
Drones launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, forcing its operational shutdown.
Unmanned aerial vehicles originating from Iraq's Maysan province hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in the Riyadh and Madinah regions, causing injuries and infrastructure damage. Saudi authorities suspended pipeline operations as a precaution while deferring military retaliation.
- 2026-09-11 PM
Ansar Allah forces seize Mayun Island, expanding control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Houthi fighters occupied Mayun Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait following the retreat of government-aligned forces. The positioning provides Ansar Allah with direct physical control over the southern Red Sea shipping corridor.
- 2026-09-10 PM
Ansar Allah forces capture the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha.
Ansar Allah fighters seized the port city of Mocha and advanced along Yemen's western coast, driving civilian displacement toward Aden and drawing heavy Saudi-led airstrikes.
- 2026-09-08 PM
Ansar Allah launched cross-border missile and drone strikes against Saudi energy facilities and southern cities.
Ansar Allah targeted Saudi Aramco oil installations, economic sites, and military bases across Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan, and Najran with dozens of drones and ballistic missiles. The attacks injured 73 civilians and ignited operational fires at energy sites, prompting Saudi Arabia to announce military retaliation.
- 2026-09-06 PM
Yemeni government forces recapture Hays district from Ansar Allah
Yemeni government troops recaptured Hays district following armed clashes that killed over 60 combatants.
- 2026-09-05 PM
Yemeni government warplanes conduct airstrikes against Ansar Allah positions in Taiz and Hodeidah.
Yemeni government aircraft executed 15 airstrikes targeting Ansar Allah troop concentrations, vehicles, and combat positions in Hays, al-Kadha, and Maqbanah. The operations mark the first deployment of government airpower since coastal fighting escalated.
- 2026-09-02 PM
Ansar Allah establishes military cooperation pact with al-Shabaab
Reports revealed structured cooperation between Ansar Allah and Somalia's al-Shabaab militia involving drone technology transfers and fighter training across the Gulf of Aden.
- 2026-09-01 PM
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan activate Makkah Joint Defense Agreement
The three nations established a General Secretariat in Riyadh to operationalize the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement.
- 2026-08-24 PM
Houthi ballistic missile damages commercial tanker off Yanbu
Ansar Allah fired a ballistic missile that struck a commercial tanker 63 nautical miles west of Yanbu, igniting a shipboard fire.
- 2026-08-19 AM
Ansar Allah launches drone strikes targeting the Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jizan.
On August 18, 2026, Houthi forces targeted Saudi Aramco's oil refinery facility in Jizan with drones. The strike represents a direct attack on Saudi energy infrastructure amid renewed cross-border hostilities.
- 2026-08-17 PM
Ansar Allah claims missile strikes on Saudi military vessels off Mocha.
Houthi forces claimed targeting a Saudi military landing ship and four patrol craft with ballistic missiles and drones off the coast of Mocha. Yemeni army sources reported five ballistic missiles launched toward Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea shipping lanes.
- 2026-08-15 PM
Houthi strikes on Mokha port kill eight and shut down maritime operations
Houthi missile and drone strikes targeted Mokha port, killing eight people and forcing authorities to suspend all maritime operations.
- 2026-08-07
UN warns that Yemen faces its greatest risk of renewed large-scale conflict since the 2022 truce
The UN Special Envoy warned that Yemen faced a greater risk of renewed large-scale conflict than at any point since April 2022. He cited recent Ansar Allah attacks in Marib and Hadramawt that reportedly caused significant casualties, renewed attacks on commercial shipping, strikes on civilian infrastructure including airports, and heightened regional tensions. The Security Council separately condemned Houthi missile attacks against Saudi Arabia since 13 July and commercial-vessel attacks since 22 July.
- 2026-07-22 onward
Houthi attacks on commercial shipping resume
The UN Special Envoy and Secretary-General reported a resumption of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and renewed disruption or threats to navigation in the Red Sea. For each vessel incident, separately record the vessel, location, date, claimed responsibility, verified damage, casualties, and source.
- 2026-07-03 to 2026-07-19
Airport, airspace, and Saudi border tensions reopen escalation risk
UN officials raised concern over developments involving Yemeni airspace and airports. The Security Council later condemned unauthorized aircraft landings at Sana’a International Airport on 3 July and Hudaydah Airport on 13 July, and Houthi missile attacks against Saudi Arabia beginning on 13 July.
- 2026-06-16
UN Envoy says relative calm continues but Yemen’s conflict remains unresolved
The UN Special Envoy reported that relative calm inside Yemen since the 2022 truce continued and that renewed attacks on commercial shipping had not occurred in the immediate reporting period, while stressing that the conflict was unresolved. He also identified a recent Saudi grant of $150 million for fuel for power stations in government-held areas as important economic support.
- 2026-05-14
Parties agree to release more than 1,600 conflict-related detainees
After fourteen weeks of direct UN-facilitated negotiations in Amman, the parties present agreed to release more than 1,600 conflict-related detainees. This is an agreement to carry out a release; do not report all detainees as released until the transfers are independently confirmed.
- 2026-03-31
UNMHA mandate concludes after seven years
The mandate of the United Nations Mission to support the Hudaydah Agreement concluded on 31 March 2026 following a final extension and transition arrangements. Mission closure does not by itself terminate the Stockholm Agreement, establish full implementation, or prove that Hudaydah security and redeployment issues are resolved.
- March-June 2024
Red Sea escalation and external strikes obstruct the Yemen roadmap
The UN Special Envoy repeatedly warned that Houthi maritime attacks and military responses by external actors were pulling Yemen into wider regional confrontation and reducing the political space needed to translate the December roadmap commitments into an agreement. Saudi–Houthi cross-border calm did not end the unresolved Yemeni conflict.
- 2024-01-10
Security Council demands an end to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping
Resolution 2722 condemned Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels, demanded their immediate cessation and the release of Galaxy Leader and its crew, and affirmed navigational rights and freedoms. The resolution addressed maritime attacks; it did not create a Yemen ceasefire or authorize the daily agent to infer responsibility for every later maritime incident.
- 2023-12-23
Parties commit to measures supporting a UN roadmap
The UN Special Envoy announced that the parties had committed to steps including a nationwide ceasefire, payment of public-sector salaries, resumption of oil exports, opening roads, easing restrictions on Sana’a airport and Hudaydah port, and preparation for an inclusive political process. These were roadmap commitments awaiting sequencing, agreement, and implementation—not a final signed settlement.
- 2023-11-19 onward
Houthis seize Galaxy Leader and open a sustained Red Sea campaign
Houthi forces seized the commercial vessel Galaxy Leader and detained its crew, then expanded attacks, attempted attacks, and seizures affecting commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The Houthis linked the campaign to the Gaza war and asserted targeting criteria; those rationales and vessel associations must remain attributed rather than assumed.
- 2023-09-20
Ansar Allah delegation concludes public talks in Riyadh
An Ansar Allah delegation visited Riyadh for discussions hosted by Saudi Arabia with Omani involvement. The UN Envoy welcomed the momentum and continued engagement with the parties. The visit represented direct conflict-party diplomacy, not a signed bilateral peace treaty or a replacement for an inclusive inter-Yemeni process.
- 2023-04-14 onward
Nearly 900 detainees are released in another large exchange
The parties carried out a multi-day release and transfer of nearly 900 conflict-related detainees with UN facilitation and ICRC implementation support. The operation built on the Stockholm detainee mechanism and occurred amid broader de-escalation contacts.
- 2023-03-10
Saudi Arabia and Iran agree to restore diplomatic relations
Saudi Arabia and Iran announced a China-facilitated agreement to restore diplomatic relations and reopen embassies. The agreement changed the regional environment for Yemen diplomacy and was followed by greater Saudi–Houthi engagement. It did not itself bind the Yemeni parties or constitute a Yemen peace agreement.
- 2022-10-02 onward
Formal truce expires without renewal, while broad de-escalation persists
The parties did not agree to extend and expand the formal UN truce before its 2 October deadline. Despite the expiry, the large-scale Saudi–Houthi cross-border war did not immediately return to its pre-truce intensity, and UN reporting later described relative calm and preserved gains. Always state both facts: the truce expired, and de-escalation broadly persisted.
- 2022-04-02
UN-brokered nationwide truce enters into force
The Government of Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition, and the Houthis accepted a two-month truce. The terms halted offensive ground, air, and maritime operations inside Yemen and across its borders; facilitated fuel ships into Hudaydah ports and commercial flights through Sana’a airport; and provided for road discussions. The truce was later renewed twice.
- 2022-03-25
Houthi attacks strike Saudi civilian and energy facilities
Houthi attacks targeted civilian and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, including a petroleum-products distribution facility in Jeddah. The coalition subsequently carried out strikes in Yemen.
- 2021-10-20
Marib offensive and Houthi cross-border attacks intensify
The Security Council and UN officials warned about the intensified Houthi offensive around Marib and continuing cross-border attacks against Saudi Arabia, alongside coalition air operations and civilian risk. Do not convert claims of advances, interceptions, or casualties from either side into confirmed figures without corroboration.
- 2021-03-22
Saudi Arabia presents an initiative for a nationwide ceasefire and talks
Saudi Arabia announced an initiative proposing a nationwide ceasefire under UN supervision, measures concerning Hudaydah fuel imports and Sana’a airport, and the resumption of political negotiations. It was a proposal and diplomatic offer, not an accepted ceasefire or completed agreement.
- 2020-10-15 to 2020-10-16
1,056 conflict-related detainees are transported home
Following negotiations connected to the Stockholm framework, the ICRC transported 1,056 released detainees on eleven flights between five cities in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. This was a completed release operation, unlike later agreements that still required implementation.
- 2020-04-08
Coalition announces a unilateral suspension of offensive operations
The Saudi-led coalition announced a unilateral suspension of offensive operations, initially for two weeks, citing support for UN peace efforts and the COVID-19 emergency. Fighting and accusations continued, and the measure did not become a mutually agreed nationwide settlement.
- 2019-09-14
Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities are attacked
Drones and cruise missiles struck Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. The Houthis claimed responsibility. Saudi Arabia and other states challenged a launch-from-Yemen account and attributed responsibility differently, while UN experts examined the weapons and attack geometry. Record the attack as confirmed and each attribution as an attributed claim or dated expert finding.
- 2019-01-16
Security Council establishes UNMHA
Resolution 2452 established the United Nations Mission to support the Hudaydah Agreement. Its mandate included supporting the Redeployment Coordination Committee, monitoring the governorate-wide ceasefire and redeployments, and facilitating implementation.
- 2018-12-13
Parties conclude the Stockholm Agreement
The Government of Yemen and Houthi delegation agreed to a ceasefire and redeployment framework for Hudaydah city and the ports of Hudaydah, Salif, and Ras Issa, issued a statement of understanding on Taiz, and agreed on a mechanism related to detainees. The agreement did not create a nationwide ceasefire or final political settlement.
- 2018-06-13
Government-aligned and coalition-backed forces launch the Hudaydah offensive
Government-aligned forces backed by coalition members began a major offensive toward Hudaydah city and port. UN officials warned that sustained fighting around the port could disrupt essential commercial and humanitarian flows.
- 2018-03-25
Houthi forces launch a series of missiles toward Saudi cities
Multiple ballistic missiles were launched from Yemen toward Riyadh and other Saudi locations. Saudi authorities reported interceptions and a civilian death from falling debris.
- 2018-01-26
UN experts report Iranian-origin missile components and embargo non-compliance
The UN Panel of Experts reported that missile remnants and related military materiel it examined included components of Iranian origin introduced after the targeted arms embargo and concluded that Iran had failed to take necessary measures to prevent prohibited transfers. The finding does not prove Iranian command of each Houthi launch or identify every transfer route.
- 2017-12-04
Houthi–Saleh alliance collapses and former president Saleh is killed
After open fighting erupted between former president Saleh’s forces and the Houthis in Sana’a, Saleh was killed and his alliance with the movement ended. Houthi authorities consolidated control over much of the capital’s security and governing apparatus.
- 2017-11-04 onward
Missile aimed at Riyadh is followed by coalition closure measures
Houthi forces launched a ballistic missile toward Riyadh, which Saudi authorities said was intercepted near the international airport. The coalition then temporarily closed Yemen’s land, sea, and air entry points, later modifying access arrangements under international pressure.
- 2016-10-08
Coalition airstrike hits a funeral hall in Sana’a
An airstrike hit a crowded funeral gathering in Sana’a, causing extensive civilian casualties. The coalition’s investigative mechanism later acknowledged that coalition aircraft struck the location following incorrect information and procedural failures.
- December 2015-August 2016
UN-led Switzerland and Kuwait talks fail to produce a final settlement
UN-facilitated talks in Switzerland in December 2015 were followed by more than three months of negotiations in Kuwait in 2016. The parties discussed security arrangements, political transition, detainees, state institutions, and withdrawals, but the round concluded without a comprehensive signed agreement.
- 2015-04-14
Security Council adopts Resolution 2216
Resolution 2216 demanded that the Houthis end violence, withdraw from areas seized including Sana’a, relinquish arms taken from military and security institutions, and cease actions falling within the authority of Yemen’s legitimate government. It expanded targeted sanctions and arms-embargo measures.
- 2015-03-26
Saudi-led coalition begins military intervention in Yemen
Saudi Arabia and coalition partners announced the start of military operations against Houthi and allied forces after Hadi’s request. Air operations, maritime and border measures, support to government-aligned forces, and later ground deployments internationalized the conflict.
- 2015-03-24
President Hadi requests military assistance from Gulf and Arab states
In a letter transmitted to the Security Council, President Hadi requested urgent military assistance from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf and Arab states, including action to protect Yemen and deter the Houthi advance. This event records the request; it does not independently resolve later legal disputes over every coalition operation.
- January-March 2015
Central government collapses, Hadi escapes, and Houthi-allied forces advance south
Houthi forces detained President Hadi and senior officials amid the collapse of the transitional government. Hadi later escaped to Aden. Houthi forces, assisted by military units loyal to former president Saleh, advanced southward, while Hadi rejected the Houthi-dominated governing arrangements.
- 2014-09-21
Houthi forces gain control in Sana’a as parties sign the Peace and National Partnership Agreement
Houthi forces captured key state and military sites in Sana’a during September 2014. On 21 September, political actors signed the UN-facilitated Peace and National Partnership Agreement. The signature did not reverse the armed seizure of power or establish stable shared governance.
- 2013-03-18 to 2014-01-25
National Dialogue Conference attempts an inclusive transition settlement
Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference convened with political parties, youth, women, civil society, the Houthi movement, southern representatives, and other constituencies. It concluded with an outcomes document, but disputes over federal design, state authority, security arrangements, and implementation persisted.
- 2011-11-23
GCC Initiative creates a negotiated presidential transition
President Ali Abdullah Saleh signed the Gulf Cooperation Council Initiative and its Implementation Mechanism, transferring presidential authority through a transitional process centered on Vice-President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. The arrangement was a transition framework, not a settlement of the Saada conflict or a disarmament agreement.
- 2010-02-12
Government and Houthi movement enter a northern ceasefire
The Yemeni government and Houthi movement accepted ceasefire terms ending the sixth round of the Saada conflict. The agreement reduced direct fighting, including the border-war phase, but did not produce a durable political settlement or disarm the movement.
- August-November 2009
Sixth Saada war spreads to the Saudi border
The sixth Saada war displaced civilians toward the Saudi frontier. In November, Saudi Arabia reported that Houthi fighters attacked or entered Saudi territory, and Saudi forces became directly engaged along the border.
- June 2004 onward
Modern Saada insurgency begins in northern Yemen
Fighting began in Saada Governorate between the Yemeni state and followers of Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi. Hussein was killed during the first round, and Abdulmalik al-Houthi subsequently assumed leadership of the movement.
— BEGINNING OF RECORD —
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Why it moved▲ 0.5 · 10 OCTA new front or party; talks under way
84.2 → 84.7
The day’s reporting:
- ▲A new front or party — before: no new front
- ▼Talks under way — before: no talks reported
From World news | The Guardian · 8 Oct 2026Houthis claim attack on Riyadh airport as airlines suspend flights to Saudi capitalhttps://saudigazette.com.sa · 10 Oct 2026Coalition launches major offensive, destroys 136 Houthi military targetsYemen Online · 9 Oct 2026[Pakistan Confirms Troop Deployment in Saudi Arabia, Reveals Mission
The conflict’s stage held.
- Direction
- Escalating sharply (+49.8 / 7d)
- Severity
- Extreme (84.7 / 100)
- Connections
- Moderate (~4 of 8)
- Cascade
- High (#3 of 9)
How this was measured
| Internationalization18% | 31 | ◆ | |
| Ground combat16% | 80 | ◆ | |
| Standoff strikes14% | 80 | ◆ | |
| Nuclear escalation12% | 0 | ◆ | |
| Mobilization12% | 65 | ◆ | |
| Crisis control10% | 82 | ◆ | |
| Territorial control8% | 45 | ◆ | |
| Geographic spillover7% | 34 | ▼ -8 | |
| Infrastructure3% | 70 | ◆ |
- ▲ 23.3 Saudi-led coalition launched a large-scale offensive in Yemen, destroying 136 Houthi military targets and targeting their missile network. sustained interstate combat · confirmed
- ▲ 11.2 Pakistan confirmed deployment of troops in Saudi Arabia under a joint defense agreement, stating their mission is defensive. foreign troops deployed combat zone · reported single
- ▲ 1.8 Houthis claimed responsibility for missile attacks on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, killing three Saudis and wounding others. cross border incident · confirmed
- ▲ 5.4 Saudi-led coalition destroyed three Houthi missile launchers in Yemen, targeting their ability to threaten regional security. limited state strike · confirmed
- ▲ 1.5 Yemeni government forces launched 'Operation Dawn of Yemen,' claiming to have neutralized 1,400+ Houthis and destroyed 250+ military assets in 24 hours. major ground assault · reported single
- ▲ 4.2 Saudi-backed Yemeni forces claimed to have cleared Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Mayun Island of Houthi remnants. territorial change · reported multiple
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →