← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- An Israeli drone strike killed one Palestinian in Deir al-Balah in central Gaza.
- The Israel Defense Forces conducted a drone strike against a vehicle in Beit Jinn, Syria.
- United States Envoy Tom Barrack criticized Israel for striking Syria's Abu al-Duhur airbase without advance notice.
- The Israel Defense Forces killed Hamas commander Sharif al-Hasanat in central Gaza.
- Israeli forces and armed settlers injured 19 Palestinians during operations in the West Bank.
The Israel Defense Forces continue active combat operations in the Gaza Strip alongside airstrikes against targets in Syria. Israeli strikes in Syria produced diplomatic friction between Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and United States Ambassador Tom Barrack.
An Israeli drone strike killed one person in Deir al-Balah. The Israel Defense Forces killed Hamas commander Sharif al-Hasanat in central Gaza. Israeli forces conducted two demolition operations in Deir al-Balah. An Israeli drone targeted a vehicle in Beit Jinn, Syria. The Israel Defense Forces struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria. Israeli forces and settlers injured 19 Palestinians across the West Bank.
United States Ambassador Tom Barrack accused Israel of failing to provide advance warning before striking the Abu al-Duhur airbase. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz disputed Tom Barrack's statement by asserting that Israel warned Syrian officials prior to the strike. United Kingdom officials considered trade sanctions against Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Lebanese authorities evaluated an extradition request concerning a former Palestinian envoy.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz cited intelligence regarding Turkish military deployments to justify strikes on Syrian infrastructure. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Turkish plans to place radar equipment at Abu al-Duhur airbase threatened Israel. Former Mossad officials assessed that Turkey would not initiate a military clash with Israel.
Israeli military operations in Gaza and Syria maintain high operational activity across multiple fronts. Assessment: Continued Israeli military operations in Gaza and Syria sustain high tension while creating diplomatic friction with the United States and Turkey.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
4 more
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli forces conduct airstrikes in southern Lebanon as Lebanese army expands operations.
The IDF carried out strikes against targets in southern Lebanon while the Lebanese Armed Forces continued operating in designated pilot zones. The strikes occurred as international discussions considered the UK and Italy to monitor Hezbollah disarmament.
- 2026-08-12
Israel conducts targeted Gaza airstrike and reported southern Lebanon strikes testing ceasefires.
Israeli forces carried out an airstrike in Gaza targeting a Hamas commander, marking the first strike in over a week. Concurrently, localized military activity and reported strikes in southern Lebanon continue to test international ceasefire arrangements.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.