WORLD WAR 3 RISK INDEX
Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah commanders in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, marking the region's highest single-day casualty toll since June, as parallel strikes hit commercial maritime traffic and infrastructure across the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Black Sea. Houthi missile strikes forced a complete shutdown of Yemen's Mokha port, while Iranian forces struck a UAE-linked commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian long-range strikes temporarily halted operations at Russia's Novorossiysk grain terminal. These maritime disruptions coincide with emerging diplomatic realignments, including potential Egyptian participation in a Turkish-Saudi-Pakistani defense pact and European efforts to draft an independent peace framework for Ukraine.