WORLD WAR 3 RISK INDEX
The expiration of the 60-day diplomatic deadline under the June U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding without a comprehensive agreement triggered immediate military posture shifts and threats across Middle Eastern maritime chokepoints. Iranian commanders threatened offensive operations in the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. demands for Iranian surrender, while Ansar Allah ballistic missile and drone attacks near Mokha temporarily disrupted commercial transit through the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Concurrently, NATO recorded a direct kinetic engagement in European airspace when a Spanish F-18 shot down a suspected Russian drone over Romanian territory near the Moldovan border. These events highlight compounding risks to global maritime corridors and air space security spanning the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and Eastern Europe.