← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- A U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft transited international airspace over the Taiwan Strait on 22 August.
- Chinese People's Liberation Army forces monitored a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft transiting the Taiwan Strait.
- The United States delivered the first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft to Taiwan.
- The Taiwan Coast Guard Administration warned off a Chinese research ship operating near Taiwan's Zuoying Naval Base.
- The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense detected three PLA aircraft and 15 naval vessels around Taiwan on 22 August.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army maintains persistent air and naval deployments around Taiwan. The Republic of China government exercises effective administration over Taiwan and associated islands.
A U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on 22 August 2026. Eastern Theater Command units of the People's Liberation Army tracked the U.S. aircraft during its transit. Taiwan received its first batch of F-16V Block 70 fighter jets from the United States. The Taiwan Coast Guard Administration warned off a Chinese research vessel operating near Zuoying Naval Base. The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense detected three PLA aircraft and 15 PLA Navy ships operating near Taiwan on 22 August 2026.
U.S. officials scheduled bilateral summit talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and PRC President Xi Jinping. PRC authorities issued statements opposing U.S. military flights through the Taiwan Strait. The PRC government maintained its refusal to conduct official dialogue with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te.
The United States conducts unofficial relations with Taiwan governed by the Taiwan Relations Act, three joint communiqués, and the Six Assurances. Beijing continues to assert its one-China principle over Taiwan. The delivery of F-16V Block 70 fighters addresses long-standing procurement programs for Taiwan's military inventory. Chinese civilian and official research vessels conduct survey missions near primary Taiwan naval installations.
Routine U.S. transit operations and PLA tracking maneuvers define current Strait interactions. Neither party has initiated kinetic strikes or enforced blockade operations. Assessment: Cross-Strait military activity will likely maintain its current pattern of gray-zone patrols and routine U.S. transits without escalating to open kinetic conflict.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
1 more
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 19/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 19/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.