← WW3 RISK TRACKER // THEATER: CHINA – TAIWAN
CHINA – TAIWAN
- Republic of China Military Police deployed Kestrel anti-tank launchers and Stinger missiles at Taipei Metro stations during exercise Han Kuang 42.
- Taiwan Coast Guard Administration vessels shadowed Chinese research ship Tong Ji near Liuqiu island off Kaohsiung.
- A Taiwanese satellite launch vehicle veered off course from Jiupeng missile testing base and crashed in Pingtung county.
- Republic of China Army armored elements deployed M1A2T Abrams tanks around Taoyuan International Airport during defensive maneuvers.
- Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim declared Taiwan to be part of China in an interview with Al Jazeera.
Taiwan maintains defense readiness during exercise Han Kuang 42 while Chinese research vessels operate near Taiwanese naval installations. The Republic of China government exercises effective administration over Taiwan, and the People's Republic of China maintains unresolved sovereignty claims across the Taiwan Strait.
During the Han Kuang 42 exercises, Republic of China Military Police units positioned Kestrel anti-tank weapons at Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center metro station. Republic of China Army crews deployed CM-34 Clouded Leopard vehicles and M1A2T Abrams tanks near Taoyuan International Airport. An experimental Taiwanese satellite launch vehicle veered off course from the Jiupeng testing base in Pingtung county and crashed into nearby mountains. The Taiwan Coast Guard Administration dispatched patrol ships to warn the Chinese research vessel Tong Ji 28 nautical miles off Liuqiu Island.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that Taiwan is a province of China. The People's Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs praised the remarks. The Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a rebuke, stating the comments harm investment confidence. Officials in Beijing issued a statement on the final day of Taiwan's Han Kuang 42 exercise, describing the drills as a wasteful charade.
Taiwan's Cabinet approved a proposed 2027 defense budget of 1 trillion New Taiwan dollars to acquire U.S. weapon systems. Engineer Zhang Xianzhe published a paper in a journal of defense firm Norinco warning that artificial intelligence models produce false data in military intelligence systems. Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst Malcolm Davis reported that People's Liberation Army satellite deployment programs aim to bolster space-based target tracking capabilities.
Taiwanese military exercises and Chinese maritime surveillance operations continue across the Taiwan Strait without active combat. Assessment: Cross-Strait operational activity will maintain routine gray-zone pressure and defensive exercises without escalating to direct armed conflict.
SCORE RATIONALE // Routine cross-Strait defensive exercises, gray-zone maritime surveillance, and diplomatic exchanges maintain baseline tension without active hostilities.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
1 more
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
- CHN
- TWN
- US
- JPN
- AUS
- PHL
- TIP
- KIA
- ARK
- TNL
- MND
- BLA
- TWN → CHN · CHINA-TAIWAN ↔ KOREA
Scam targeted Taiwanese abroad, police say - Taipei Times16 sources - AUS → IND · CHINA-TAIWAN ↔ INDIA-PAKISTAN
Indian business leader launches extraordinary attack on Pauline Hanson: 'Have some butter chic… - BRN → CHN · CHINA-TAIWAN (external actor)
China says Philippine aircraft 'intrude into' airspace over Scarborough Shoal - BusinessWorld …
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Recomputed every third day, from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number. Between recomputations the index holds its last value rather than being re-judged without new evidence. Full construction →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the board a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.
Possible new links between this theater and the others, found automatically in machine-coded news: a state acting in both, alliance bridges, retaliation across them. Each entry leads with the headline that evidenced it.
Discovery, not verification. Nothing here changes any score. Nothing appears unless at least two independent sources from two different domains reported it within 72 hours, and only the editorial process can mark a connection verified.
WWIII.REPORT tracks the armed conflicts and flashpoints with the potential to escalate toward a global war. Every day, open-source reporting from every active theater is assessed into its 0-100 War Index, key developments, and a full situation report. A separate WW3 risk index measures how close those separate conflicts are to becoming one war.
Daily at 17:00 UTC. How the index is built · All pages
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