← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Republic of China Military Police deployed Kestrel anti-tank launchers and Stinger missiles at Taipei Metro stations during exercise Han Kuang 42.
- Taiwan Coast Guard Administration vessels shadowed Chinese research ship Tong Ji near Liuqiu island off Kaohsiung.
- A Taiwanese satellite launch vehicle veered off course from Jiupeng missile testing base and crashed in Pingtung county.
- Republic of China Army armored elements deployed M1A2T Abrams tanks around Taoyuan International Airport during defensive maneuvers.
- Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim declared Taiwan to be part of China in an interview with Al Jazeera.
Taiwan maintains defense readiness during exercise Han Kuang 42 while Chinese research vessels operate near Taiwanese naval installations. The Republic of China government exercises effective administration over Taiwan, and the People's Republic of China maintains unresolved sovereignty claims across the Taiwan Strait.
During the Han Kuang 42 exercises, Republic of China Military Police units positioned Kestrel anti-tank weapons at Taipei Nangang Exhibition Center metro station. Republic of China Army crews deployed CM-34 Clouded Leopard vehicles and M1A2T Abrams tanks near Taoyuan International Airport. An experimental Taiwanese satellite launch vehicle veered off course from the Jiupeng testing base in Pingtung county and crashed into nearby mountains. The Taiwan Coast Guard Administration dispatched patrol ships to warn the Chinese research vessel Tong Ji 28 nautical miles off Liuqiu Island.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that Taiwan is a province of China. The People's Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs praised the remarks. The Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a rebuke, stating the comments harm investment confidence. Officials in Beijing issued a statement on the final day of Taiwan's Han Kuang 42 exercise, describing the drills as a wasteful charade.
Taiwan's Cabinet approved a proposed 2027 defense budget of 1 trillion New Taiwan dollars to acquire U.S. weapon systems. Engineer Zhang Xianzhe published a paper in a journal of defense firm Norinco warning that artificial intelligence models produce false data in military intelligence systems. Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst Malcolm Davis reported that People's Liberation Army satellite deployment programs aim to bolster space-based target tracking capabilities.
Taiwanese military exercises and Chinese maritime surveillance operations continue across the Taiwan Strait without active combat. Assessment: Cross-Strait operational activity will maintain routine gray-zone pressure and defensive exercises without escalating to direct armed conflict.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
1 more
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.