WORLD WAR 3 RISK INDEX
Global geopolitical friction remains defined by persistent gray-zone maneuvers, targeting of maritime transit corridors, and calibrated military operations across key theaters. Inter-theater spillovers are most pronounced in critical energy and commercial trade arteries, where Houthi missile strikes in the Red Sea and depressed transit volumes in the Strait of Hormuz have forced major energy producers like Saudi Arabia to reroute oil via pipeline corridors. Concurrently, Ukrainian strikes on Russia's Novorossiysk port threaten Black Sea grain trade flows, while North Korea's ongoing strategic alignment with Russia unfolds alongside renewed ballistic missile testing ahead of allied exercises. Across Eastern Europe and the Taiwan Strait, regional powers are reinforcing border barriers and conducting joint drills, signaling sustained long-term posture adjustments rather than sudden major operational shifts.