← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian strikes targeted Novorossiysk port, reportedly damaging four Russian warships and major grain export terminals.
- Russia launched a major air assault across Ukraine while Kyiv tightened reporting restrictions on incoming missile strikes.
- President Zelenskyy outlined a joint diplomatic plan with allies aimed at pressuring Moscow into ending the war.
- Ukrainian officials reported liberating 26 settlements across 745 square kilometers over an eight-month southeastern operation.
- Ukraine submitted revised peace plan proposals to U.S. negotiators amidst ongoing diplomatic exchanges.
The Russia-Ukraine war remains in a state of open, high-intensity interstate conflict. Active hostilities continue across southern and eastern front lines alongside daily long-range aerial attacks targeting infrastructure, military targets, and economic nodes. Neither side has demonstrated the willingness or capacity to enact a comprehensive operational pause.
Military operations during this reporting period were marked by a major Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, resulting in reported damage to naval assets and grain storage facilities. In response, Russian forces conducted sustained air and missile salvos across Ukrainian territory, prompting Ukrainian officials to restrict public disclosure of strike location data.
On the diplomatic front, Ukrainian leadership announced a joint strategic initiative with international partners intended to pressure Moscow toward war termination. Revised peace proposals were transmitted to U.S. officials, though fundamental divisions over security guarantees and territorial sovereignty continue to block substantive progress.
Broader theater dynamics remain heavily influenced by economic disruption in Black Sea trade routes and persistent logistical pressures. Both belligerents face ongoing air defense supply challenges, long-range attrition, and long-term force generation requirements that constrain strategic maneuvering.
The conflict maintains an attritional trajectory driven by mutual deep-strike capabilities and sustained territorial combat. Assessment: Military operations and mutual strike campaigns will continue near current intensity levels without near-term operational cessation.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
3 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine submits new peace proposals to US envoys as Russian strikes continue across Ukraine.
- 2026-08-11
Reciprocal long-range missile and drone strikes inflict casualties and hit energy and military targets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are Russia and Ukraine at war?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95/100 as of 1 January 1970 (war), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95/100 — war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
This run predates the split into war and war-risk indices; its number was a single tension score and is labelled as what it was then.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.