WORLD WAR 3 RISK INDEX
Verified situation report across 9 tracked conflicts, from open-source reporting to Tuesday 29 September 2026, 04:00 UTC. Iranian maritime coercion and Houthi attacks are consolidating into a sustained challenge to Red Sea and Gulf shipping lanes. Tehran’s interdiction of commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi control of Bab al-Mandeb Strait now directly threaten global energy transit. This pressure is forcing Western naval deployments and secondary sanctions to harden into a contest over control of these chokepoints, with economic and military consequences for all transit-dependent economies.
WAR THEATERS
WW3 FORECAST ALPHA
FULL FORECASTAnalysts project that major powers are pacing military timelines toward the late 2020s and 2030s while managing ongoing attrition and gray-zone friction. In Europe and the Middle East, combatants face escalating technological adaptation and impending force posture shifts, even as full-scale great-power escalation is restrained in the near term.
A wider war world war and great-power conflict
- Next 3 months
- Mick Ryan notes United States officials expect American bombing of Iran to resume following the November 2026 midterm elections.