← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completed maiden live-fire weapons testing in the North Arabian Sea. Naval News · 28 Sep 2026Pakistan Navy’s First Hangor-class Submarine Performs First Live Firing in North Arabian Sea
- Jammu and Kashmir legislative assembly passed a non-binding resolution demanding immediate restoration of Indian statehood. Dawn - Home · 29 Sep 2026India-held Kashmir’s assembly backs return to statehood
- Pakistan Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir hosted the United States Afghanistan War Commission at GHQ Rawalpindi. Dawn - Home · 28 Sep 2026US delegation meets CDF Munir, acknowledges Pakistan's 'longstanding role, sacrifices' during Afghan warPakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 28 Sep 2026CDF Munir urges US-Afghan war commission to incorporate regional, Pakistani POVs in conflict's review
- Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan claimed a suicide bombing killing at least 11 people at a police checkpoint in northwestern Pakistan. World | Deutsche Welle · 26 Sep 2026Pakistan: Suicide attack at police stop kills at least 11
- Indian officials highlighted proscribed cross-border militant commanders remaining on national and international counter-terrorism watchlists. Hindustan Times · 29 Sep 2026Dawood Ibrahim, Masood Azhar among terrorists on India’s 10 most wanted list; Goldy Brar on 56
Kashmir Political Developments
The legislative assembly of India-administered Jammu and Kashmir passed a non-binding resolution calling on the central government in New Delhi to restore full statehood. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah introduced the measure, prompting Bharatiya Janata Party legislators to stage a walkout and denounce the text as unconstitutional. Dawn - Home · 29 Sep 2026India-held Kashmir’s assembly backs return to statehood
Naval Posture and Testing
The Pakistan Navy conducted live-fire weapon trials from its newly commissioned lead Hangor-class submarine, PNS Hangor, in the North Arabian Sea. The testing operationalizes new underwater capabilities following the platform's induction. Naval News · 28 Sep 2026Pakistan Navy’s First Hangor-class Submarine Performs First Live Firing in North Arabian Sea
Pakistani Security Engagements
Pakistan Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir met with leaders of the United States Afghanistan War Commission at army headquarters in Rawalpindi. Concurrently, Pakistani security services sustained domestic counter-insurgency operations after a Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan suicide attack killed 11 people at an outpost in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Dawn - Home · 28 Sep 2026US delegation meets CDF Munir, acknowledges Pakistan's 'longstanding role, sacrifices' during Afghan warWorld | Deutsche Welle · 26 Sep 2026Pakistan: Suicide attack at police stop kills at least 11Pakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 28 Sep 2026CDF Munir urges US-Afghan war commission to incorporate regional, Pakistani POVs in conflict's review
Counter-Terror Enforcement
Indian security agencies reiterated domestic and United Nations designations against Pakistan-based militant leaders, including Jaish-e-Mohammed founder Masood Azhar. The disclosures accompanied updates regarding international fugitive listings and cross-border militant groups active in Jammu and Kashmir. Hindustan Times · 29 Sep 2026Dawood Ibrahim, Masood Azhar among terrorists on India’s 10 most wanted list; Goldy Brar on 56
Assessment
Bilateral relations between India and Pakistan remain stable at baseline peacetime levels, with military units continuing to respect the May 2025 firing cessation along the Line of Control.
BOTTOM LINE // Peacetime baseline holds along the Line of Control while regional security discussions and domestic political developments in Kashmir proceed without interstate friction.
- 2026-09-29
Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completes maiden live-fire test
The Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completed its maiden live-fire weapons testing in the North Arabian Sea.
- 2026-09-26
Pakistan warns India that diverting Indus waters constitutes an act of war
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned the United Nations General Assembly that any Indian effort to divert Indus River waters would be treated as an act of war.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
4 more
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 14.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 14.7/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.