← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
▲ STALE FEED — last run failed validation for this theater; showing most recent verified entry.
- A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly struck a petrochemical plant in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, resulting in at least 13 deaths.
- Ukrainian forces conducted multiple long-range strikes against Russian oil facilities and defense supply plants up to 2,000 kilometers deep.
- Russian forces repeatedly struck the Maiaky bridge, targeting transport logistics linked to Ukrainian Danube river export routes.
- Ukraine's military leadership signaled upcoming personnel adjustments while continuing strike campaigns against Russian logistics and Crimean targets.
- Ukrainian military authorities dismissed reports of a potential new Russian offensive being prepared from Belarusian territory.
The Russia-Ukraine theater remains at maximum operational intensity, characterized by ongoing, full-scale interstate war across active front lines and mutual strategic strike campaigns. Both belligerents continue efforts to degrade each other's military-industrial capacity and logistics.
Military developments during this period were dominated by deep Ukrainian long-range unmanned aerial vehicle strikes targeting Russian industrial infrastructure, including petrochemical plants and supply hubs over 1,000 kilometers inside Russian territory. Concurrently, Russian forces maintained operational momentum on front-line sectors and conducted targeted strikes on critical Ukrainian transit links, such as the Maiaky bridge along Danube export corridors.
On the political and diplomatic track, official peace talks remain stalled due to fundamental disagreements over territorial claims and core security arrangements. International engagement continues through multi-lateral forums, such as the UN Security Council addressing detainee conditions, alongside Ukrainian discussions regarding Western defense assistance and air defense procurement.
The broader operational context remains shaped by an escalating war of economic and material attrition, with Ukraine seeking to disrupt Russian energy revenues and military production while Russia expands missile manufacturing capacities. Both militaries face ongoing resource constraints, driving tactical adaptation and heightened reliance on unmanned systems.
With neither party indicating a willingness to compromise on primary strategic objectives, the operational environment remains locked in active, full-scale warfare. Assessment: High-intensity combat operations and mutual deep-strike campaigns are expected to persist without significant structural change in the short term.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are Russia and Ukraine at war?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95/100 as of 1 January 1970 (war), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95/100 — war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
This run predates the split into war and war-risk indices; its number was a single tension score and is labelled as what it was then.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.