← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Taiwan detected four PLA aircraft sorties and eight Chinese naval vessels operating around its surrounding waters on August 15.
- The United States dispatched a advisory team to Taiwan to train Taiwan Coast Guard Administration personnel in maritime security response.
- China's Ministry of National Defense publicly dismissed Taiwan's annual Han Kuang exercises as a wasteful charade and empty show on August 14.
- A Taiwan government audit published on August 15 revealed critical gaps in anti-drone defense capabilities against advancing PLA unmanned aircraft.
- Japan and France issued a joint diplomatic statement on August 14 emphasizing the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
The Taiwan Strait remains under routine military posturing and gray-zone maritime pressure without active hostilities or an implemented blockade. The Republic of China government exercises effective administration over Taiwan while the People's Liberation Army maintains continuous air and naval presence around the island.
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported four PLA aircraft sorties and eight PLAN vessels in the 24 hours ending August 15. A public audit released in Taipei on August 15 reported that Taiwan's anti-drone defenses remain inadequate against PLA drone technology. In response to increased China Coast Guard activity, a United States team arrived in Taiwan to train local coast guard officers in interception tactics.
China's Ministry of National Defense issued statements on August 14 calling Taiwan's Han Kuang military drills an empty show. On the same day, French and Japanese foreign ministry representatives issued a joint text urging peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues. Taiwan authorities separately requested clarification from Jakarta regarding a scheduled joint China-Indonesia naval exercise east of Taiwan.
Beijing continues deploying coast guard and civilian transport vessels to assert jurisdictional authority east of Taiwan. United States naval transits through the strait occurred less frequently in recent months, though Washington continues unofficial training and defense article deliveries under the Taiwan Relations Act. Taiwan's military continues its Han Kuang No. 42 readiness maneuvers alongside public civil defense exercises.
Official cross-Strait communication channels remain suspended over contested political preconditions, keeping high-level political settlement out of reach. Sustained military surveillance and gray-zone enforcement actions will continue to define daily interactions across the strait. Assessment: Operational friction and coercive maritime maneuvers will persist near current baseline levels without triggering immediate armed confrontation.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 34.4/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 34.4/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.