← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Taiwan signed a contract with a United States firm for underwater drones to support asymmetric sea-denial strategies.
- Beijing issued formal statements condemning Taiwanese military exercises, citing regional disruption.
- Taiwan received upgraded F-16 fighter aircraft to bolster air defense readiness amid persistent PLA sorties.
- Taiwanese authorities expanded civil defense training programs to improve emergency response capabilities.
- A Taiwanese domestic satellite launcher failed during its test launch, triggering temporary local missile alarms.
Taiwan signed an agreement with a United States firm to acquire underwater drones, while China issued formal condemnations against Taiwanese military drills. The Taiwan Strait maintains routine military posturing and gray-zone pressure without active hostilities or blockade operations.
Taiwanese defense acquisitions included deliveries of upgraded F-16 fighter jets and the procurement of unmanned underwater systems. A domestic Taiwanese satellite launch vehicle failed during its initial flight test on 19 August, triggering local air defense alerts. Meanwhile, People's Liberation Army aircraft and naval vessels maintained routine operations near Taiwan's air defense identification zone.
Beijing criticized Taiwanese military exercises and civil defense preparations, alleging that the Democratic Progressive Party damages cross-Strait stability. The United States continues executing authorized security assistance under domestic law, while Japan and South Korea held regional defense discussions.
China claims Taiwan under its one-China principle while Taipei exercises effective administration over Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. Taiwan is accelerating civil defense measures and military resilience programs alongside standard exercise calendars, counterbalanced by persistent PLA air and maritime presence around the island.
Military procurements, exercise cycles, and political friction will continue shaping cross-Strait interactions without immediate indications of open conflict. Assessment: Cross-Strait relations will likely remain marked by persistent gray-zone posturing and defense procurement without structural operational shifts in the near term.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 17/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 17/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.