← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Open-source research reported increased PLA naval operations east of Taiwan focused on practicing maritime blockade scenarios.
- Taiwan contracted with a United States defense firm to acquire uncrewed underwater vehicles for asymmetric coastal defense.
- Beijing condemned Taiwan's military exercises and warned Japan against deepening organizational ties with NATO.
- Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense issued daily tracking updates confirming ongoing PLA aircraft and naval vessel operations around the island.
- Japan advanced plans to integrate hypersonic standoff missiles onto its submarine fleet to counter regional military activity.
The Taiwan Strait operates under political and military pressure without active armed conflict or an implemented blockade. The Republic of China government exercises effective administration over Taiwan while the People's Republic of China maintains sovereign claims over the island.
PLA aircraft and naval vessels maintain daily operations around Taiwan, documented by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense. Open-source studies report increased PLA naval activity east of Taiwan designed to test blockade tactics. Taiwan contracted with a United States firm to acquire uncrewed underwater vehicles for asymmetric defense.
Beijing issued statements criticizing Taiwan's ongoing military drills and warned Japan against integrating with NATO programs. Taipei officials stated that PLA military activities threaten maritime security across the Western Pacific. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim issued public statements regarding Malaysia's policy balance between Beijing and Taipei.
Taiwan's Executive Yuan proposed a $35 billion defense budget for 2027 to fund F-16 maintenance and autonomous systems. Japan's Ministry of Defense advanced development plans to equip its submarine fleet with hypersonic standoff missiles. United States naval transits through the Taiwan Strait decreased in frequency compared to prior multi-year averages.
PLA force deployments and regional defense procurements continue without active kinetic engagement. Assessment: The cross-Strait theater will maintain heightened military readiness and gray-zone operational pressure without immediate armed conflict.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.