← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Indian Border Security Force personnel detained a Pakistani national who crossed the international border into Punjab while grazing livestock.
- The Indian Air Force conducted Exercise Vayu Shakti in Rajasthan, demonstrating aerial firepower in the western sector.
- India expanded its e-visa network to 88 entry points, incorporating the Attari land border crossing while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani nationals.
- Indian and Pakistani border security forces conducted the traditional Beating Retreat ceremony at the Attari-Wagah border during Independence Day observances.
- Diplomatic objections were raised by Indian officials following comments regarding Kashmir made by Norway's foreign minister.
India and Pakistan maintain the May 10, 2025 ceasefire along the Line of Control and international border despite unresolved diplomatic and water disputes. Routine border management actions and seasonal military exercises characterized border operations around August 15 Independence Day observances.
The Indian Air Force conducted Exercise Vayu Shakti in Rajasthan to demonstrate combat readiness near the western border. On August 16, Border Security Force troops at the Punjab border apprehended a Pakistani civilian who reportedly strayed across the demarcation line while grazing livestock. Armed forces on both sides of the Line of Control maintained defensive postures without verified artillery or small-arms exchanges reported.
Bilateral diplomatic relations remain downgraded following India's 2025 decision to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance and restrict cross-border transit. On August 16, India added the Attari land checkpoint to its e-visa entry network while preserving existing visa restrictions against Pakistani citizens. Indian diplomats lodged formal objections against statements by Norway's foreign minister referencing the status of Jammu and Kashmir.
Cross-border trade and transit through Wagah-Attari remain severely restricted under policy measures adopted after the April 2025 Pahalgam attack. While institutional exchanges under the 1988 nuclear installation agreement and 2008 consular protocol persist, political dialogue remains frozen over terrorism accountability and Kashmir sovereignty claims.
Current border activity reflects routine posturing and procedural security management rather than military escalation. Assessment: The ceasefire along the Line of Control is expected to hold near term as both militaries avoid direct confrontations while political channels remain stagnant.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
3 more
- 2026-08-12
India adds Attari crossing to e-visa network while tightening border infrastructure personnel rules.
- 2026-08-11
Indian security agencies issue alerts over potential cross-border threats ahead of Independence Day.
- 2026-08-10
Indian Border Security Force launches pre-Independence Day security operations along the Pakistan border.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 8/100 as of 1 January 1970 (stable), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 8/100 — stable. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.