← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the US Chargé d'Affaires in Islamabad to issue a demarche over remarks by the US Ambassador to India.
- US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar, describing Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India during his visit.
- Pakistan extended its airspace restrictions prohibiting Indian commercial aircraft from using Pakistani airspace until September 24.
- Indian security forces maintained border vigil along the Line of Control following mid-August security alerts ahead of national holidays.
- India defeated Pakistan in a Hockey World Cup match, while formal bilateral channels remained limited to diplomatic protests.
The May 2025 military cessation between India and Pakistan holds along the Line of Control, with no active interstate combat operations reported. Tensions remain grounded in unresolved sovereignty claims over Jammu and Kashmir alongside persistent airspace restrictions.
No cross-border artillery engagements, airstrikes, or troop mobilizations occurred along the Line of Control or the international border. Pakistan extended its ban on Indian aircraft entering its airspace through September 24, maintaining civil aviation restrictions instituted after the April 2025 crisis. Indian border units maintained vigil along boundary posts following security alerts issued in mid-August.
Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned US Chargé d'Affaires Natalie Baker in Islamabad on August 19 to hand over a formal diplomatic demarche. The protest responded to comments by US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor in Srinagar, where he referred to Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India. New Delhi made no formal public reply to Pakistan's demarche, maintaining its official stance that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral territory of India.
Bilateral engagement remains restricted to routine administrative exchanges, with direct political and trade links suspended since April 2025. The Indus Waters Treaty dispute remains active before international legal bodies after India declared the treaty in abeyance and Pakistan rejected unilateral suspension. Third-country diplomatic visits to Jammu and Kashmir continue to trigger formal protests from Islamabad regarding the legal status of the territory.
The cessation agreement of May 10, 2025, prevents direct military escalation despite diplomatic disputes over territorial statements and airspace bans. Neither side has mobilized regular military formations or initiated offensive strikes across the Line of Control. Assessment: Bilateral friction will persist through diplomatic protests and airspace restrictions without immediate military escalation.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
- 2026-08-12
India adds Attari crossing to e-visa network while tightening border infrastructure personnel rules.
- 2026-08-11
Indian security agencies issue alerts over potential cross-border threats ahead of Independence Day.
- 2026-08-10
Indian Border Security Force launches pre-Independence Day security operations along the Pakistan border.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 12/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 12/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.