← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- The Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that the Indus Waters Treaty remains binding, rejecting India's declaration placing the accord in abeyance. Times of India · 2 Sep 2026Pak pleads for dialogue after India stands firm on suspending Indus Water TreatyAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 1 Sep 2026Pakistan wins Indus waters battle at The Hague, but India threat remains
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi criticized state-sponsored terrorism during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit attended by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Times of India · 1 Sep 2026Pakistan takes SCO chair, PM Modi slams use of terror as strategic asset
- Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned against the weaponization of shared water resources during his address at the SCO summit. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 1 Sep 2026SCO Summit: Pakistan PM Sharif says water must never be weaponised
- The Pakistan Navy launched exercise SEASPARK-2026 off Karachi to evaluate tri-service operational readiness against maritime threats. Dawn - Home · 2 Sep 2026Pakistan Navy commences SEASPARK-2026 exercise to test combat readiness
- Pakistan-administered Kashmir selected PML-N politician Iftikhar Gillani as prime minister following regional government formation. Dawn - Home · 2 Sep 2026Azad Kashmir saga
Indus Waters Dispute
The Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled unanimously in The Hague that the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty remains binding, rejecting India's legal basis for holding the accord in abeyance following the April 2025 Pahalgam attack. Following the decision, Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged New Delhi to resume constructive engagement under the treaty framework, while India reiterated its position rejecting the tribunal's jurisdiction. Times of India · 2 Sep 2026Pak pleads for dialogue after India stands firm on suspending Indus Water TreatyWorld News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 1 Sep 2026SCO Summit: Pakistan PM Sharif says water must never be weaponisedAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 1 Sep 2026Pakistan wins Indus waters battle at The Hague, but India threat remains
SCO Summit Exchanges
At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged member states to isolate nations using terrorism as an instrument of state policy. Speaking at the same forum as Pakistan assumed the SCO chair, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that shared water resources must never be weaponized. Times of India · 1 Sep 2026India on board, SCO reiterates condemnation of Iran attacksWorld News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 1 Sep 2026SCO Summit: Pakistan PM Sharif says water must never be weaponisedTimes of India · 1 Sep 2026Pakistan takes SCO chair, PM Modi slams use of terror as strategic asset
Naval Operations and Procurement
The Pakistan Navy commenced exercise SEASPARK-2026 near Karachi to test tri-service combat readiness across surface, submarine, and aerial domains. Meanwhile, Russian defence vendors submitted a proposal to supply five additional S-400 air defence missile systems to India to bolster its aerial defence network. Dawn - Home · 2 Sep 2026Pakistan Navy commences SEASPARK-2026 exercise to test combat readinessNDTV News Search Records Found 1000 · 1 Sep 2026Russia Bids To Sell Five More Op Sindoor Legend S-400 Missile Systems To India
Assessment
Bilateral relations remain anchored in the May 2025 Director General of Military Operations ceasefire, while legal disputes over river rights and public exchanges at multilateral summits define ongoing friction.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
- 2026-08-12
India adds Attari crossing to e-visa network while tightening border infrastructure personnel rules.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 11/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 11/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.