← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif reaffirms unconditional support for Saudi Arabia against Houthi threats. Dawn - Home · 30 Sep 2026Pakistan will be there to defend Saudi Arabia in any conflict: Khawaja Asif
- Pakistan Navy conducts maiden live firing of the Hangor-class submarine PNS Hangor in the North Arabian Sea. Naval News · 28 Sep 2026Pakistan Navy’s First Hangor-class Submarine Performs First Live Firing in North Arabian Sea
- India’s PM Modi praises flydubai pilot Smit Machchhar for thwarting a cockpit attack, highlighting regional aviation tensions. Times of India · 1 Oct 2026‘India is proud’: PM Modi lauds Flydubai pilot Machchhar after cockpit attackHindustan Times · 1 Oct 202630 seconds of terror, 14,300 feet plunge, 'blood everywhere': Indian pilot fights off co-pilot on flydubai flight
- Pakistan rejects Afghan Taliban claims of cross-border clashes, dismissing allegations as ‘self-rhetorical lies’. Pakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 30 Sep 2026‘Self-rhetorical lies’: Pakistan rejects Kabul’s claims over Nuristan clashes
- US clarifies to Pakistan that its stance on Kashmir as disputed territory remains unchanged despite Indian ambassador’s remarks. Dawn - Home · 30 Sep 2026No change in Kashmir policy, US assures Islamabad
Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Defense Ties
Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif reiterated unconditional military and diplomatic support for Saudi Arabia against Houthi threats, underscoring deepened regional defense cooperation. Dawn - Home · 30 Sep 2026Pakistan will be there to defend Saudi Arabia in any conflict: Khawaja Asif
Pakistan Navy Capability
The maiden live firing of the Hangor-class submarine PNS Hangor in the North Arabian Sea marks a milestone in Pakistan’s submarine warfare modernization. Naval News · 28 Sep 2026Pakistan Navy’s First Hangor-class Submarine Performs First Live Firing in North Arabian Sea
Regional Aviation Incident
India’s PM Modi honored flydubai pilot Smit Machchhar for his role in averting a hijacking, reflecting ongoing tensions in Middle Eastern airspace involving Indian personnel. Times of India · 1 Oct 2026‘India is proud’: PM Modi lauds Flydubai pilot Machchhar after cockpit attackHindustan Times · 1 Oct 202630 seconds of terror, 14,300 feet plunge, 'blood everywhere': Indian pilot fights off co-pilot on flydubai flight
Kashmir Diplomacy
The US assured Pakistan that its position on Kashmir as disputed territory remains unchanged, countering Indian ambassador’s remarks that framed the region as part of India. Dawn - Home · 30 Sep 2026No change in Kashmir policy, US assures Islamabad
Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Disputes
Pakistan dismissed Taliban claims of cross-border clashes as baseless, rejecting accusations of Pakistani involvement in Afghan internal conflicts. Pakistan News, Latest News Pakistan, Pakistan Headline | The Express Tribune · 30 Sep 2026‘Self-rhetorical lies’: Pakistan rejects Kabul’s claims over Nuristan clashes
Assessment
Routine diplomatic exchanges and military capability demonstrations maintain elevated but stable tensions, with no kinetic escalation or major shifts in posture.
BOTTOM LINE // Diplomatic clarifications and routine military posturing maintain elevated but stable friction without kinetic escalation.
- 2026-09-29
Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completes maiden live-fire test
The Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completed its maiden live-fire weapons testing in the North Arabian Sea.
- 2026-09-26
Pakistan warns India that diverting Indus waters constitutes an act of war
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned the United Nations General Assembly that any Indian effort to divert Indus River waters would be treated as an act of war.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
4 more
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 13.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 13.2/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.