← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Assam police arrested two men in Guwahati for transmitting military intelligence to a Pakistani agent. Hindustan Times · 5 Oct 2026Army veteran among 2 held in Assam for passing defence information to Pakistani operative, were ‘honey-trapped’ via online sex rackets
- Karnataka police charged seven people including three Pakistan-based operatives over alleged cross-border arms trafficking. Hindustan Times · 5 Oct 20263 Pakistani nationals among 7 booked in Karnataka for terror links, ‘radicalising’ state youthsHindustan Times · 5 Oct 2026Three Pakistan national among seven arrested for terror links in Karnataka
- Andhra Pradesh police arrested Indian Navy sailor Pradeep Mukherjee at INS Agrani for passing classified maritime intelligence to Pakistani intelligence. Hindustan Times · 4 Oct 202631-year-old Indian Navy sailor 'honey-trapped', lured into sharing classified data with Pakistani operative
- Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stated India submitted proposals to Russia and Ukraine to end their conflict. Hindustan Times · 4 Oct 2026India held talks with Russia, Ukraine to end war, says Jaishankar
- Pakistani military forces conducted airstrikes targeting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan positions inside eastern Afghanistan. World | Deutsche Welle · 3 Oct 2026Pakistan vs. Afghanistan: From allies and neighbors to war
Espionage and Subversion Investigations
Indian law enforcement agencies expanded counter-espionage operations following multiple arrests linked to Pakistani intelligence operatives. The Counter Intelligence Cell of the Andhra Pradesh police arrested Indian Navy sailor Pradeep Mukherjee at INS Agrani in Coimbatore for transmitting classified maritime data from Visakhapatnam. Separately, Assam police arrested two individuals in Guwahati, including a retired Indian Army veteran, for providing security information to a Pakistani agent. Karnataka police also filed charges against seven individuals in Bidar, naming three Pakistan-based operatives involved in illegal arms trafficking. Hindustan Times · 5 Oct 2026Army veteran among 2 held in Assam for passing defence information to Pakistani operative, were ‘honey-trapped’ via online sex racketsHindustan Times · 4 Oct 202631-year-old Indian Navy sailor 'honey-trapped', lured into sharing classified data with Pakistani operativeHindustan Times · 5 Oct 20263 Pakistani nationals among 7 booked in Karnataka for terror links, ‘radicalising’ state youths
Border Friction and Diplomatic Sparring
Tensions along the international border remain elevated following lethal small-arms firing near Kasur. India's Ministry of External Affairs summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires after Border Security Force troops killed two Pakistani civilians who reportedly advanced toward the border fence. Islamabad disputed the Indian account, alleging the victims were unarmed local villagers and requesting an independent investigation into the incident. Meanwhile, Indian and Pakistani diplomats exchanged sharp counter-accusations at the United Nations General Assembly Third Committee regarding the status and governance of Jammu and Kashmir.
Air Capabilities and Western Border
The Indian Air Force highlighted strategic concerns regarding Pakistani operational developments and joint training programs. Air Chief Marshal AP Singh noted that Pakistani pilots are receiving operational training in China on fifth-generation fighter platforms, urging accelerated development of India's indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft. Concurrently, Pakistan's military focused operational resources on its western border, carrying out airstrikes against suspected Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan targets inside Afghanistan after experiencing repeated militant attacks against security forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. World | Deutsche Welle · 3 Oct 2026Pakistan vs. Afghanistan: From allies and neighbors to war
Assessment
Reciprocal diplomatic protests over border casualties and expanding counter-espionage arrests demonstrate persistent bilateral friction without indicating imminent force mobilization between India and Pakistan.
BOTTOM LINE // Persistent friction continues through cross-border espionage investigations and recent diplomatic sparring over border casualties, while direct military forces maintain stable postures.
The National Interest notes the International Energy Agency expects India to increase its coal usage. The National Interest · 2 Oct 2026Energy Security in a De-Globalizing World
- Next 12 months
- The National Interest reports the International Energy Agency expects India to use 4.2 percent more coal in 2026.
- 2026-10-03
Indian border troops killed two Pakistani civilians in firing along the Kasur border.
State media reported that India's Border Security Force fired without warning on three Pakistani villagers who stepped past a border marker near Ladhar in Kasur. Two civilians were killed and one was injured, while Pakistani officials alleged a violation of established boundary standard operating procedures.
- 2026-09-29
Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completes maiden live-fire test
The Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completed its maiden live-fire weapons testing in the North Arabian Sea.
- 2026-09-26
Pakistan warns India that diverting Indus waters constitutes an act of war
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned the United Nations General Assembly that any Indian effort to divert Indus River waters would be treated as an act of war.
4 more
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 19.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 19.7/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.