← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Pakistan's UN envoy Asim Iftikhar Ahmad rejected adding permanent seats to the United Nations Security Council. Dawn - Home · 6 Oct 2026Pakistan opposes new permanent Security Council members
- Pakistani representative Mohammad Sadiq accused foreign actors of sponsoring militant proxies operating inside Afghanistan. Dawn - Home · 5 Oct 2026At Moscow moot, Pakistan says terrorism remains core of Afghanistan's problems
- Pakistan's air force struck militant positions in the Afghan provinces of Kunar and Helmand. FDD's Long War Journal · 5 Oct 2026Pakistan launches new strikes as conflict with Taliban persist into third week
- Pakistan agreed to deploy armed forces to Saudi Arabia under the trilateral Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. NDTV News Search Records Found 1000 · 5 Oct 2026For First Time, Pakistan To Deploy Troops To Aide Saudi-Backed Yemen ForcesDawn - Home · 5 Oct 2026Pakistan, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia agree to rapid force deployment in the kingdom under Makkah pactTimes of India · 5 Oct 2026Pakistan, Saudi, Turkiye activate Mecca defence pact as Yemen war escalates
- Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah protested administrative resistance to an assembly resolution demanding statehood restoration. Scroll.in · 5 Oct 2026‘Are they above the Assembly?’ Why Jammu and Kashmir politicians are up in arms against bureaucrats
Afghan Frontier and Proxy Accusations
Pakistan's military struck targets in Afghanistan's Kunar and Helmand provinces following suicide attacks claimed by the Ittehad ul Mujahideen Pakistan alliance. At the Moscow Format consultations, Pakistani Special Representative Mohammad Sadiq accused external foreign actors of sponsoring proxy militant networks operating from Afghan territory. Pakistani officials specifically alleged Indian involvement in coordinating meetings for groups attacking Pakistani security installations. Islamabad maintains that operational strikes across the Durand Line represent lawful actions against cross-border terrorism. FDD's Long War Journal · 5 Oct 2026Pakistan launches new strikes as conflict with Taliban persist into third weekDawn - Home · 5 Oct 2026At Moscow moot, Pakistan says terrorism remains core of Afghanistan's problems
Security Council Expansion Debate
Pakistan's outgoing permanent representative to the United Nations, Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, opposed expanding permanent membership on the United Nations Security Council ahead of assuming the role of foreign secretary. Islamabad rejected permanent seat expansion, directly challenging New Delhi's longstanding diplomatic campaign for a permanent council seat. Ahmad advocated instead for increasing the number of elected non-permanent seats across regional groupings. He also reaffirmed Pakistan's official stance demanding the peaceful resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir territorial dispute under international resolutions. Dawn - Home · 6 Oct 2026Pakistan opposes new permanent Security Council members
Kashmir Assembly Statehood Dispute
Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah criticized union territory administrative officials after the regional assembly passed a resolution demanding the restoration of statehood. The union territory's law secretary advised the assembly speaker against entertaining the measure due to pending litigation before the Supreme Court of India. Abdullah stated that bureaucratic resistance obstructs the authority of elected representatives. The dispute illustrates administrative contention inside India-administered Jammu and Kashmir following the August 2019 constitutional reorganization. Scroll.in · 5 Oct 2026‘Are they above the Assembly?’ Why Jammu and Kashmir politicians are up in arms against bureaucrats
Assessment
Bilateral relations remain stable at low baseline tension, with disputes confined to multilateral forums and mutual rhetoric over regional militancy.
BOTTOM LINE // Bilateral interaction remains confined to multilateral diplomatic disputes and external proxy accusations without direct cross-border military escalation between India and Pakistan.
The National Interest notes the International Energy Agency expects India to increase its coal usage. The National Interest · 2 Oct 2026Energy Security in a De-Globalizing World
- Next 12 months
- The National Interest reports the International Energy Agency expects India to use 4.2 percent more coal in 2026.
- 2026-10-03
Indian border troops killed two Pakistani civilians in firing along the Kasur border.
State media reported that India's Border Security Force fired without warning on three Pakistani villagers who stepped past a border marker near Ladhar in Kasur. Two civilians were killed and one was injured, while Pakistani officials alleged a violation of established boundary standard operating procedures.
- 2026-09-29
Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completes maiden live-fire test
The Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completed its maiden live-fire weapons testing in the North Arabian Sea.
- 2026-09-26
Pakistan warns India that diverting Indus waters constitutes an act of war
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned the United Nations General Assembly that any Indian effort to divert Indus River waters would be treated as an act of war.
4 more
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 23.1/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 23.1/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.