← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the Israeli military to act forcefully in Gaza following the launch of kites into Israeli territory. Haaretz latest headlines · 23 Aug 2026Defense Minister Katz orders IDF to 'act forcefully' in Gaza against launches of balloons, kitesBBC News · 24 Aug 2026Israel warns of 'forceful' response to kites flown from Gaza
- An Israeli airstrike in Deir al-Balah killed Hamas military wing member Muhammad Abdul Nasser Jaber Abu Asad. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 24 Aug 2026Israeli strike on Gaza shelter extends casualty list
- Mossad Chief Roman Gofman met Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani in Jordan for security discussions following recent Israeli airstrikes. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Aug 2026Mossad chief, Syria FM hold positive de-escalation talks after Israeli airbase strike, source saysHaaretz latest headlines · 23 Aug 2026Mossad chief meets with Syrian foreign minister after Israeli strikes, source says
- Syrian state media reported Damascus rejected any security agreement that restricts Syrian military development or foreign alliances. Haaretz latest headlines · 23 Aug 2026Syria tells Israel it won't limit military buildup in security deal talks
- Israeli forces detained a suspect following a stabbing attack that wounded an Israeli civilian in al-Auja near Jericho. Haaretz latest headlines · 23 Aug 2026Israeli man moderately wounded in West Bank stabbing attack, medics say
Gaza Cross-Border Kites
Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the Israeli military to target Hamas by any means necessary after four kites crossed from Gaza into Kibbutz Nahal Oz. Hamas denied launching the devices, calling them non-explosive items flown by children and accusing Israel of creating a pretext to expand military operations. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 24 Aug 2026Israel accused of using kites as pretext to justify escalating Gaza attacksHaaretz latest headlines · 23 Aug 2026Defense Minister Katz orders IDF to 'act forcefully' in Gaza against launches of balloons, kitesBBC News · 24 Aug 2026Israel warns of 'forceful' response to kites flown from Gaza
Gaza Targeted Airstrikes
Israeli forces conducted strikes across Gaza City, Deir al-Balah, az-Zawayda, and Khan Younis, killing multiple Palestinians including Hamas commander Muhammad Abdul Nasser Jaber Abu Asad. The operations accompanied multiple evacuation warnings issued for Shati refugee camp, Al-Bureij, and Deir al-Balah. אבו עלי אקספרס · 24 Aug 2026An Israeli Air Force fighter jet struck another building in Gaza City a short time ago—in the Shati refugee camp—also following an evacuation warning.אבו עלי אקספרס · 24 Aug 2026The Palestinians report 7 people killed today in the Gaza Strip in various strikes since midnight until now.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 24 Aug 2026Israeli strike on Gaza shelter extends casualty list
Israel-Syria Security Negotiations
Mossad Chief Roman Gofman met Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani in Jordan following Israeli strikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase. Damascus publicly rejected any draft security arrangement that restricts Syrian military capabilities or international alliances, demanding a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces to pre-December 2024 lines. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Aug 2026Mossad chief, Syria FM hold positive de-escalation talks after Israeli airbase strike, source saysHaaretz latest headlines · 23 Aug 2026Syria tells Israel it won't limit military buildup in security deal talksJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 24 Aug 2026Israel and Turkey face a dangerous clash over Syria's future
West Bank Security Incidents
An Israeli civilian sustained moderate wounds in a stabbing attack at a shopping center in al-Auja near Jericho, prompting Israeli troops to seal the perimeter and detain a suspect. Israeli forces also conducted searches and raids across multiple West Bank towns and refugee camps. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 24 Aug 2026Why Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians in West Bank are pogromsHaaretz latest headlines · 23 Aug 2026Israeli man moderately wounded in West Bank stabbing attack, medics say
Assessment
High operational momentum across Gaza and the West Bank alongside firm Syrian negotiating positions keeps regional escalation risks high.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
4 more
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli forces conduct airstrikes in southern Lebanon as Lebanese army expands operations.
The IDF carried out strikes against targets in southern Lebanon while the Lebanese Armed Forces continued operating in designated pilot zones. The strikes occurred as international discussions considered the UK and Italy to monitor Hezbollah disarmament.
- 2026-08-12
Israel conducts targeted Gaza airstrike and reported southern Lebanon strikes testing ceasefires.
Israeli forces carried out an airstrike in Gaza targeting a Hamas commander, marking the first strike in over a week. Concurrently, localized military activity and reported strikes in southern Lebanon continue to test international ceasefire arrangements.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.