← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities trading with Iran. World news | The Guardian · 24 Aug 2026Iran vows to retaliate against countries that cooperate with fresh US sanctionsNPR Topics: World · 24 Aug 2026Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to unveil new economic sanctions on IranBBC News · 24 Aug 2026Iran faces 'greatest financial offensive ever', says US treasury secretary
- U.S. and Israeli forces reportedly executed military strikes against Iranian nuclear and medical facilities. Tehran Times · 24 Aug 2026US-Israeli strikes hit Iran’s nuclear, medical sites
- Iranian officials threatened to block all Persian Gulf oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz if economic pressure continues. BBC News · 24 Aug 2026Iran faces 'greatest financial offensive ever', says US treasury secretary
- Iranian state television broadcast explicit threats referencing a ten million dollar bounty against Barron Trump. Iran International · 23 Aug 2026Iran state TV airs threat against Trump’s son Barron
- Pakistan Chief of Defense Forces Asim Munir arrived in Tehran to conduct mediation talks with Iranian leaders. Tehran Times · 23 Aug 2026Field Marshal Asim Munir visiting Tehran to bolster regional peace
U.S. Financial Offense
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions initiative targeting international trade with Tehran, threatening to sever U.S. financial market access for participating foreign entities. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the measures as desperate, while Supreme National Security Council officials warned that compliance by neutral trade partners would be treated as hostile action. World news | The Guardian · 24 Aug 2026Iran vows to retaliate against countries that cooperate with fresh US sanctionsWorld news | The Guardian · 23 Aug 2026Iran’s new security chief says neighbours who join US economic war will be considered ‘enemies’NPR Topics: World · 24 Aug 2026Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to unveil new economic sanctions on Iran
Hormuz Maritime Controls
Tehran threatened to shut down all oil exports from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz if U.S. financial operations continue. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi warned that American targeting of Iranian critical infrastructure will prompt immediate Iranian retaliation against Western energy chokepoints. Tehran Times · 24 Aug 2026IRGC Spokesman: Threats to Iran's infrastructure will draw heavy strikes on US vital interestsBBC News · 24 Aug 2026Iran faces 'greatest financial offensive ever', says US treasury secretary
Nuclear Deterrence Rhetoric
Top Iranian security officials publicly signaled that recent military strikes on Iranian territory could force Tehran to revise its official nuclear doctrine. Strategic planners in Tehran are increasingly framing the acquisition of nuclear weapons as an essential deterrent against foreign military operations. Iran International · 23 Aug 2026Iran security chief hints at nuclear doctrine shift after US attacksTehran Times · 24 Aug 2026US-Israeli strikes hit Iran’s nuclear, medical sites
Diplomatic Mediation Channels
Pakistan Chief of Defense Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran for high-level strategic consultations with Iranian political and military leadership. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that Islamabad is pursuing active mediation to prevent further regional escalation. Tehran Times · 24 Aug 2026Tehran warns countries supporting US military actions of consequencesTehran Times · 23 Aug 2026Field Marshal Asim Munir visiting Tehran to bolster regional peace
Assessment
Washington's expanding secondary sanctions and Tehran's ongoing maritime threats reduce the likelihood of near-term diplomatic de-escalation.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
4 more
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
- 2026-08-12
Iran reports no progress in peace talks with U.S. amid Hormuz dispute
Iran stated that no progress has been made toward reviving an interim peace agreement with the United States. Negotiations remain stalled over maritime access and naval enforcement within the Strait of Hormuz.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.