← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- An Israeli military drone strike killed three Palestinians near a school complex in Jabaliya. אבו עלי אקספרס · 25 Aug 2026Strikes in the Gaza Strip:
- Israeli police and military forces raided the UNRWA Qalandiya Training Centre in East Jerusalem, expelling all staff members from the facility. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Aug 2026Israeli forces raid UNRWA training centre in occupied East JerusalemHaaretz latest headlines · 25 Aug 2026Israeli police launch major raid on last remaining UNRWA facility in Jerusalem
- Israeli military units carried out controlled demolitions in the southern Lebanese village of al-Mansouri. אבו עלי אקספרס · 25 Aug 2026Southern Lebanon: A multitude of controlled explosions in recent hours in southern Lebanon, with emphasis on the village of al-Mansouri and the village of Markaba.
- Hamas authorities warned Gazan residents to halt kite flying toward Israel following Israeli threats of military action. JPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 25 Aug 2026Hamas, Gazan NGO cm'tee warn parents to stop children flying kites after Israel threatens strikes
- Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a warning to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from Mount Hermon. אבו עלי אקספרס · 25 Aug 2026Defense Minister Israel Katz, at the Hermon outpost with a message to the President of Syria:
Gaza Kite Flying Directive
Hamas authorities and local Gazan non-governmental committees issued warnings demanding parents stop children from launching kites into Israel. The United States and Board of Peace Director-General Nickolay Mladenov warned Hamas through Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish mediators that continued kite launches would trigger serious consequences. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 25 Aug 2026Board of Peace demands Israel comply with Gaza ceasefire, calls for end to kite attacksJPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 25 Aug 2026Hamas, Gazan NGO cm'tee warn parents to stop children flying kites after Israel threatens strikes
Gaza Targeted Drone Strikes
An Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle fired four missiles at the Abu Hassin school complex in Jabaliya, killing three Palestinians. Israeli military drones also struck a target in the Mawasi area of Khan Younis, killing one resident. אבו עלי אקספרס · 25 Aug 2026Strikes in the Gaza Strip:
Southern Lebanon Demolitions
Israeli military forces conducted controlled demolitions in the southern Lebanese villages of al-Mansouri and Markaba. Israeli fighter jets and unmanned aerial vehicles executed additional strikes in southern Lebanon as clearing operations continued. אבו עלי אקספרס · 25 Aug 2026Southern Lebanon: A multitude of controlled explosions in recent hours in southern Lebanon, with emphasis on the village of al-Mansouri and the village of Markaba.
East Jerusalem UNRWA Raid
Israeli police and military forces closed the Qalandiya checkpoint and raided UNRWA's Qalandiya Training Centre in East Jerusalem. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir joined the operation, ordering staff to evacuate as authorities moved to permanently shut the facility. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Aug 2026Israeli forces raid UNRWA training centre in occupied East JerusalemHaaretz latest headlines · 25 Aug 2026Israeli police launch major raid on last remaining UNRWA facility in Jerusalem
Israel Syria Border Warnings
Defense Minister Israel Katz delivered a statement from a Mount Hermon military outpost, telling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that Israeli forces will remain deployed to counter security threats. The warning follows an Israeli drone strike near Beit Jinn that injured Syrian citizen Ammar Saeed Hamada. JPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 24 Aug 2026Inside Syria, night raids, farm permits mark Israel's expanding reachאבו עלי אקספרס · 25 Aug 2026Defense Minister Israel Katz, at the Hermon outpost with a message to the President of Syria:
Assessment
Continued Israeli strikes in Gaza and southern Lebanon alongside enforcement actions against UNRWA sustain critical tension while diplomatic mechanisms attempt to preserve ceasefire parameters.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
4 more
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli forces conduct airstrikes in southern Lebanon as Lebanese army expands operations.
The IDF carried out strikes against targets in southern Lebanon while the Lebanese Armed Forces continued operating in designated pilot zones. The strikes occurred as international discussions considered the UK and Italy to monitor Hezbollah disarmament.
- 2026-08-12
Israel conducts targeted Gaza airstrike and reported southern Lebanon strikes testing ceasefires.
Israeli forces carried out an airstrike in Gaza targeting a Hamas commander, marking the first strike in over a week. Concurrently, localized military activity and reported strikes in southern Lebanon continue to test international ceasefire arrangements.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.