← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced secondary sanctions targeting 60 entities tied to Iranian trade. Latest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 25 Aug 2026US economic D-Day sanctions: 'Repeated bombing attacks across Iran failed to change the calculus'Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Aug 2026Trump’s latest wave of Iran sanctions: Which 60 entities are targeted?© Kent Nishimura, AFP · 24 Aug 2026US unveils expanded sanctions aimed at Iran's 'economic asphyxiation'
- Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian rejected U.S. secondary sanctions threats over trade with Tehran. World news | The Guardian · 25 Aug 2026China denounces US threat of sanctions over trade with IranAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Aug 2026China says will safeguard its own interests as US expands Iran sanctionsBBC News · 25 Aug 2026China warns it will safeguard its interests after US widens sanctions against Iran
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi discussed a temporary Strait of Hormuz transit corridor with Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad bin Hamood Al-Busaidi. Tehran Times · 25 Aug 2026Joint Iran-Oman statement on Strait of Hormuz; Proposal for temporary corridor and mine clearance
- Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran to discuss diplomatic de-escalation. Tehran Times · 25 Aug 2026Pakistan Army Chief in Tehran: Diplomatic Push for De-escalation© Julia Demaree Nikhinson, AP · 24 Aug 2026Mideast live: US unveils fresh sanctions to 'sever every economic lifeline' sustaining Iran
- Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari criticized U.S. sanctions on Iran, urging renewed diplomatic mediation. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Aug 2026Qatar says US sanctions on Iran are unilateral
U.S. Secondary Sanctions Measures
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled Operation Economic Outcast, imposing secondary sanctions on 60 individuals, vessels, and entities across Iran's technology, aviation, and shipping sectors. The measures threaten foreign financial institutions, prompting Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian to declare Beijing's intent to defend Chinese corporate interests against U.S. coercion. Latest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 25 Aug 2026US economic D-Day sanctions: 'Repeated bombing attacks across Iran failed to change the calculus'World news | The Guardian · 25 Aug 2026China denounces US threat of sanctions over trade with IranAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Aug 2026Trump’s latest wave of Iran sanctions: Which 60 entities are targeted?
Strait of Hormuz Transit Proposals
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad bin Hamood Al-Busaidi reviewed a phased framework during Tehran consultations to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. The initiative includes a proposed joint mine-clearance project to restore commercial navigation while preserving Iranian territorial sovereignty. Tehran Times · 25 Aug 2026Joint Iran-Oman statement on Strait of Hormuz; Proposal for temporary corridor and mine clearance
Iranian Retaliation Threats
Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh announced a two-year economic resilience plan to absorb U.S. financial pressure following sanctions announcements. Supreme National Security Council official Mohsen Rezaei warned Tehran would target third-party nations cooperating with Washington and reiterated threats to block Persian Gulf energy exports. World news | The Guardian · 24 Aug 2026Iran vows to retaliate against countries that cooperate with fresh US sanctions© Julia Demaree Nikhinson, AP · 24 Aug 2026Mideast live: US unveils fresh sanctions to 'sever every economic lifeline' sustaining IranIran International · 24 Aug 2026Who speaks for Iran? Rezaei’s threats fuels divide over war and diplomacy
Regional Diplomatic Mediation
Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir conducted talks in Tehran with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Expediency Council member Mohsen Rezaei. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari separately rejected U.S. sanctions as unilateral, advocating for negotiated settlements to avoid broader regional escalation. Tehran Times · 25 Aug 2026Pakistan Army Chief in Tehran: Diplomatic Push for De-escalationAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Aug 2026Qatar says US sanctions on Iran are unilateral© Julia Demaree Nikhinson, AP · 24 Aug 2026Mideast live: US unveils fresh sanctions to 'sever every economic lifeline' sustaining Iran
Assessment
Expanding U.S. secondary sanctions against third-country entities trading with Tehran heighten the risk of economic confrontation with China while leaving military positions at the Strait of Hormuz unresolved.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
4 more
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
- 2026-08-12
Iran reports no progress in peace talks with U.S. amid Hormuz dispute
Iran stated that no progress has been made toward reviving an interim peace agreement with the United States. Negotiations remain stalled over maritime access and naval enforcement within the Strait of Hormuz.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.