← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Israeli airstrikes in Kfar Roummane and Nabatieh killed 12 people and wounded 10 in southern Lebanon. Haaretz latest headlines · 7 Sep 2026Report: Israeli strike in Lebanon kills 11 people, including two babiesJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 7 Sep 2026At least nine killed, including two infants, five wounded in IDF strikes in Lebanon
- Israeli fighter jets launched strikes near Shifa Hospital and Sheikh Ajlin in Gaza City. אבו עלי אקספרס · 8 Sep 2026The building near Shifa Hospital in Gaza City was attacked (after an evacuation warning) – and here is the Gazan who managed to capture the frame exactly at the moment of the strike.אבו עלי אקספרס · 8 Sep 2026An Israeli fighter jet strike a short time ago near a mosque in the Sheikh Ajlin neighborhood in the south of Gaza City – without an evacuation warning.
- Israeli military forces conducted an airstrike against a residential building in the Al-Bureij refugee camp. אבו עלי אקספרס · 8 Sep 2026IDF fighter jets recently struck the home of the Abu Gharqoud family in the Al-Bureij refugee camp in the center of the Strip—following an evacuation warning.
- United Kingdom officials announced trade sanctions targeting Israeli settlements in the West Bank alongside 11 partner nations. World news | The Guardian · 8 Sep 2026Miliband says there’s ‘increasing evidence’ of war crimes in Gaza as he announces West Bank sanctions – UK politics liveWorld news | The Guardian · 8 Sep 2026UK accuses Israeli ‘terrorists’ of ethnic cleansing in West Bank with government backingAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 8 Sep 2026UK announces sanctions on illegal Israeli settlements
- Israeli troops shot and killed a Palestinian during clashes involving Israeli settlers in the West Bank village of Hajja. JPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 7 Sep 2026Palestinian killed by IDF fire during clash with settlers in village near Kalkilya
Southern Lebanon Strikes
Israeli forces conducted overnight airstrikes across Kfar Roummane and the Nabatieh district, killing 12 people and wounding 10 others. The Israeli military reported targeting Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure sites in response to recent cross-border threat activity. The strikes hit residential buildings in Kfar Roummane, where rescue teams conducted search operations in the debris. Haaretz latest headlines · 7 Sep 2026Report: Israeli strike in Lebanon kills 11 people, including two babiesJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 7 Sep 2026At least nine killed, including two infants, five wounded in IDF strikes in Lebanon
Gaza Operations
Israeli fighter jets executed strikes in Gaza City near Shifa Hospital and the Sheikh Ajlin neighborhood, alongside a strike in the Al-Bureij refugee camp. Israeli military authorities issued localized evacuation warnings prior to the strikes near Shifa Hospital and Al-Bureij. The strikes targeted structures reported by the military to house militant assets, resulting in localized damage. אבו עלי אקספרס · 8 Sep 2026The building near Shifa Hospital in Gaza City was attacked (after an evacuation warning) – and here is the Gazan who managed to capture the frame exactly at the moment of the strike.אבו עלי אקספרס · 8 Sep 2026An Israeli fighter jet strike a short time ago near a mosque in the Sheikh Ajlin neighborhood in the south of Gaza City – without an evacuation warning.אבו עלי אקספרס · 8 Sep 2026IDF fighter jets recently struck the home of the Abu Gharqoud family in the Al-Bureij refugee camp in the center of the Strip—following an evacuation warning.
West Bank Sanctions and Violence
British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced sanctions banning trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank, joined by 11 nations including France and Canada. In the West Bank village of Hajja, Israeli soldiers shot and killed a Palestinian during clashes between local residents and Israeli settlers. Israeli military officials separately cautioned political leadership that defending newly established outposts in the northern West Bank presents operational difficulties. World news | The Guardian · 8 Sep 2026Miliband says there’s ‘increasing evidence’ of war crimes in Gaza as he announces West Bank sanctions – UK politics liveJPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 7 Sep 2026Palestinian killed by IDF fire during clash with settlers in village near KalkilyaWorld news | The Guardian · 8 Sep 2026UK accuses Israeli ‘terrorists’ of ethnic cleansing in West Bank with government backing
Assessment
Continued Israeli air operations in southern Lebanon and Gaza, combined with international trade restrictions on West Bank settlements, maintain high tension while remaining below open interstate war.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
4 more
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 74/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 74/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.