← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 8 Sep 2026As Houthis attack Saudi Arabia, is Iran war escalating into regional conflict?Iran International · 8 Sep 2026Iran-backed Houthis attack Saudi cities and energy facilities, wounding at least 73AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 7 Sep 2026Iran-backed Houthis attack four Saudi cities in expansion of Middle East war, 73 hurt
- Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced an expanded maritime restricted zone encompassing Persian Gulf shipping lanes. Iran International · 7 Sep 2026Iran’s new war strategy seeks to turn blockade into broader economic confrontationTehran Times · 7 Sep 2026Iran to declare ‘restricted zone’ beyond Strait of Hormuz amid US military adventurism
- The British government submitted legislation expanding trade and maritime sanctions targeting Iranian energy and banking sectors. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026UK publishes legislation for tougher sanctions on Iran over nuclear programmeIran International · 8 Sep 2026UK expands Iran sanctions over nuclear program and hostile activity
- Iranian Foreign Ministry officials warned South Korea against contributing forces to U.S. blockade operations in the Persian Gulf. Tehran Times · 7 Sep 2026Iran warns South Korea against military role in Persian GulfAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 8 Sep 2026How South Korea finds itself trapped in the US-Iran war
- An errant U.S. military strike destroyed a residential home in Kuhestak, killing four Iranian civilians. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 8 Sep 2026BRICS summit may be the only place another Iran ceasefire can be builtTehran Times · 7 Sep 2026Washington Post confirms US bombing of Iranian wedding
Houthi Attacks on Saudi Infrastructure
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes against energy facilities and urban centers in southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people and setting oil infrastructure on fire. The operation expands the regional scope of the confrontation beyond direct U.S.-Iran strike exchanges in the Persian Gulf. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 8 Sep 2026As Houthis attack Saudi Arabia, is Iran war escalating into regional conflict?Iran International · 8 Sep 2026Iran-backed Houthis attack Saudi cities and energy facilities, wounding at least 73AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 7 Sep 2026Iran-backed Houthis attack four Saudi cities in expansion of Middle East war, 73 hurt
Hormuz Restricted Zone and Blockade Resistance
Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced an expanded restricted zone into the Persian Gulf, asserting operational authority over shipping corridors and threatening sanctions against non-compliant vessels. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei warned South Korea against contributing forces to the U.S. naval blockade, while daily commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to seven ships. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 7 Sep 2026Hormuz traffic slows after Iran threatens retaliation for US attacksTehran Times · 7 Sep 2026Iran warns South Korea against military role in Persian GulfAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 8 Sep 2026How South Korea finds itself trapped in the US-Iran war
Gulf Security Diplomacy and Internal Strain
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari stated that Gulf Arab states must seek self-sufficiency rather than relying exclusively on U.S. security alliances, as Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In Tehran, Iranian security forces deployed around fuel stations as nationwide gasoline price increases took effect. Iran International · 8 Sep 2026Iran deploys security forces as gasoline price rise takes effectAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 8 Sep 2026Qatar says reopening Strait of Hormuz ‘unconditionally’ is a priorityTehran Times · 7 Sep 2026Qatar: Iran war showed strategic alliance with the US ‘is not enough’
British Sanctions Legislation and Economic Restrictions
Britain introduced legislation to restore broad sectoral trade, energy, banking, and shipping restrictions against Iran under U.N. snapback mechanisms. Concurrently, new U.S. sanctions resulted in the suspension of domestic TOEFL proficiency testing for Iranian students. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 8 Sep 2026UK publishes legislation for tougher sanctions on Iran over nuclear programmeIran International · 8 Sep 2026UK expands Iran sanctions over nuclear program and hostile activityAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 7 Sep 2026US sanctions threaten to crush Iranian students' dreams
Assessment
Cross-border Houthi missile strikes on Saudi energy facilities and Iranian claims of expanded control over Persian Gulf sea lanes sustain critical regional instability, preventing near-term diplomatic resolution.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
4 more
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.