← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- The Israel Defense Forces eliminated Hamas operative Muhammad Suleiman Byouk in a Khan Yunis airstrike. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 19 Sep 2026IDF kills Hamas commander who infiltrated Israel during October 7 attacks
- Israeli airstrikes killed Hamas-linked health official's son Basir Al-Bursh in Jabalia refugee camp. JPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 19 Sep 2026Israeli strikes reportedly kill three in Gaza, including son of Hamas-linked health ministry headAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 19 Sep 2026Child among three Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks across Gaza
- A Palestinian gunman fatally shot Israeli civilian Netanel Shukrun near the West Bank settlement of Neve Tzuf. אבו עלי אקספרס · 20 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: Duvdevan forces, guided by the Shin Bet, arrested the terrorist who carried out the shooting attack in BinyaminAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 20 Sep 2026Israeli forces kill Palestinian near Jenin in occupied West BankJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 20 Sep 2026At least one person wounded in shooting attack near Neveh Tzuf, IDF opens manhunt for terrorist
- Israeli troops shot dead a Palestinian driver attempting a car-ramming attack at a checkpoint near Jenin. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 20 Sep 2026Israeli forces kill Palestinian near Jenin in occupied West BankJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 20 Sep 2026IDF kills terrorist, thwarts attempted car-ramming attack against soldiers at West Bank checkpoint
- Israeli mounted troops entered the southern Lebanese village of Deir Mimas to search local homes. News from Israel · 20 Sep 2026Report in Lebanon: IDF forces entered the village of Deir Mimas and searched homes
Southern Lebanon Incursions
Israeli mounted units entered the southern Lebanese village of Deir Mimas to search residential properties, demonstrating active Israeli patrol operations north of the border line. Separately, Syrian sources reported that Israeli forces demolished an army post near Jandal Fortress on Mount Hermon near the Syrian-Lebanese border. אבו עלי אקספרס · 20 Sep 2026Syrian sources report that the IDF recently blew up a post that belonged to Assad’s army in the area of Jandal Fortress on Mount Hermon, near the Syria-Lebanon border (defined as part of the Damascus…News from Israel · 20 Sep 2026Report in Lebanon: IDF forces entered the village of Deir Mimas and searched homes
Gaza Targeted Operations
The Israel Defense Forces conducted localized strikes in Khan Yunis and Gaza City, killing Hamas commander Muhammad Suleiman Byouk and Basir Al-Bursh, son of a health ministry official. Israeli military officials attributed the strikes to active Hamas operational preparation and violations of established ceasefire terms. News from Israel · 20 Sep 2026IDF eliminates terrorists who participated in October 7th, advanced attacks against IDF troopsJPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 19 Sep 2026Israeli strikes reportedly kill three in Gaza, including son of Hamas-linked health ministry headJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 19 Sep 2026IDF kills Hamas commander who infiltrated Israel during October 7 attacks
West Bank Security Operations
A Palestinian gunman killed Israeli civilian Netanel Shukrun near Neve Tzuf before Israeli Duvdevan forces apprehended the suspect, while soldiers killed another driver in an attempted car-ramming near Jenin. In response, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir placed forces on high alert, ordered troop reinforcements, and initiated home demolition preparations in Biddu. אבו עלי אקספרס · 20 Sep 2026IDF forces are raiding the home of the terrorist Kadri Samara, who carried out the deadly shooting attack this morning in Neve Tzuf (Halamish).News from Israel · 20 Sep 2026Chief of Staff after terror attack: IDF on high alertאבו עלי אקספרס · 20 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: Duvdevan forces, guided by the Shin Bet, arrested the terrorist who carried out the shooting attack in Binyamin
Assessment
Localized ground searches in southern Lebanon, targeted airstrikes against Hamas operatives in Gaza, and fatal West Bank clashes maintain high theater tension within established operational bounds.
- 2026-09-15
Israel establishes kill zone along southern Lebanon front
The Israeli Northern Command established a kill zone separating Israeli-controlled territory from Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
4 more
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73.7/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.