← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei submitted seven peace conditions to Washington through Qatari mediators. Iran International · 19 Sep 2026Iran sets seven terms for renewed US talks, says ready for escalationAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 20 Sep 2026What are Iran’s latest conditions to end its war with the US?Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 19 Sep 2026Iran says conditions to re-engage in talks, end war sent to US via Qatar
- Iranian forces tested a new anti-ship missile near a United States Navy aircraft carrier in the Gulf region. Tehran Times · 19 Sep 2026Iran tests new anti-ship missile near US aircraft carrier
- Iranian military command warned that any new United States military attack will prompt sustained retaliation against American regional bases. Iran International · 20 Sep 2026Iran threatens regional strikes as MPs question nuclear policyAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 20 Sep 2026Iran warns against new escalation by US and allies
- United States President Donald Trump signed legislation extending the Iran Sanctions Act through 2031. Tehran Times · 19 Sep 2026Trump signs Russia-Iran sanctions bill
- Saudi air defence forces intercepted an aerial attack targeted at Riyadh. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 19 Sep 2026Iran war live: Tehran sets terms for peace; Saudi forces foil Riyadh attack
Qatari Mediation Track
Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei transmitted seven demands to Washington through Qatari intermediaries. The conditions mandate a full cessation of military operations on all fronts, the unfreezing of Iranian state assets, and an end to the United States naval blockade before formal negotiations can resume. Iran International · 19 Sep 2026Iran sets seven terms for renewed US talks, says ready for escalationAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 20 Sep 2026What are Iran’s latest conditions to end its war with the US?Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 19 Sep 2026Iran says conditions to re-engage in talks, end war sent to US via Qatar
Strait of Hormuz and Anti-Ship Testing
Iranian forces test-fired a new anti-ship missile in proximity to a United States Navy aircraft carrier. The naval blockade enforced by Washington against southern Iranian oil terminals continues to restrict crude shipments, driving global benchmark diesel prices above $100 per barrel. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 20 Sep 2026Iran warns against new escalation by US and alliesTehran Times · 19 Sep 2026Iran tests new anti-ship missile near US aircraft carrierTehran Times · 20 Sep 2026Trump's Iran war ignites global diesel crisis
Regional Force Posture and Retaliation Warnings
Iranian military central command declared that any fresh United States offensive will trigger sustained strikes against American military facilities across the Middle East. Saudi air defence forces intercepted an attack targeting Riyadh, while Iranian authorities expanded civilian defense mobilization across Tehran. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 20 Sep 2026Iran warns against new escalation by US and alliesAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 19 Sep 2026Iran war live: Tehran sets terms for peace; Saudi forces foil Riyadh attackIran International · 19 Sep 2026Iran mobilisation drive extends to children under 15
United States Sanctions Legislation
United States President Donald Trump signed into law the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, extending the statutory authority of the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 through 2031. The legislation penalizes foreign investments and international commercial transactions tied to Iran's energy sector. Tehran Times · 19 Sep 2026Trump signs Russia-Iran sanctions bill
Assessment
A persistent deadlock over naval blockade terms and conditions for talks keeps operational risks critical despite the absence of major direct strike exchanges over the past 36 hours.
- 2026-09-18
Russia and China veto UN resolution extending Iran sanctions monitoring
Russia and China vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution to extend independent monitoring of international sanctions on Iran.
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
4 more
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 76.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 76.2/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.