← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- An Israeli airstrike killed Hamas Northern Gaza Brigade commander Izz al-Din al-Beik in Gaza City's Nassr neighborhood. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 29 Sep 2026WATCH: IDF strikes in Gaza, killing Hamas Northern Brigade commander, top military financerAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 29 Sep 2026Israeli forces kill Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Beik in Gaza attack
- Syrian Internal Security Forces arrested three Hezbollah operatives in Daraa's Yarmouk Basin and dismantled prepared rocket launch platforms. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 29 Sep 2026Syrian Internal Security Forces take out cell of Hezbollah terrorists planning sabotage, ISF says
- Over 100 Israeli settlers rioted in Jalud, torching Palestinian homes and injuring three Israeli Border Police officers. News from Israel · 29 Sep 2026Night of rage in Samaria: Over 100 Jewish rioters clash with Israeli security forcesBBC News · 29 Sep 2026Israeli settlers attack West Bank village and block Palestinian family's return home
- An Israeli drone strike near the Fakhoura clinic in Jabaliya killed operative Mutaeb al-Balbisi. אבו עלי אקספרס · 29 Sep 2026Gazan sources: Mutaeb al-Balbisi was eliminated a short time ago in an Israeli UAV strike near the Fakhoura clinic in the Jabaliya refugee camp in the northern part of the Strip.
- The United States Senate rejected a resolution requiring State Department reporting on Israeli violence and American deaths in the West Bank. World news | The Guardian · 29 Sep 2026US Senate blocks resolution demanding accountability over Israeli violence in West Bank
Targeted Operations in Gaza
The Israeli military and Shin Bet conducted airstrikes in Gaza City and Jabaliya, killing Hamas Northern Gaza Brigade commander Izz al-Din al-Beik and operative Mutaeb al-Balbisi. These strikes continue the systematic elimination of senior commanders in the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, which lost four brigade-level leaders across Gaza during September. Meanwhile, reconstruction planning under the US-backed Board of Peace remains stalled over demands for Hamas disarmament and terms for Israeli troop withdrawals. FDD's Long War Journal · 29 Sep 2026Board of Peace unveils Gaza recovery plan, Israel reports 18 ceasefire violations Sept. 15–29JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 29 Sep 2026WATCH: IDF strikes in Gaza, killing Hamas Northern Brigade commander, top military financerAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 29 Sep 2026Israeli forces kill Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Beik in Gaza attack
Regional Interdictions
In southern Syria, Internal Security Forces intercepted a three-person Hezbollah cell attempting to position rocket launch platforms in the Yarmouk Basin near Daraa. Across southern Lebanon's western sector, Israeli forces maintained pressure around al-Mansouri through localized demolitions and artillery flares following previous cross-border drone friction. These measures highlight allied and Israeli efforts to suppress cross-border launch preparations before projectiles enter Israeli air defense zones. אבו עלי אקספרס · 29 Sep 2026The village of al-Mansouri in the western sector of southern Lebanon as seen this morning after weeks of building explosions and strikes.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 29 Sep 2026Syrian Internal Security Forces take out cell of Hezbollah terrorists planning sabotage, ISF says
West Bank Escalation and Politics
Violent unrest erupted in the West Bank village of Jalud when over 100 Israeli settlers torched Palestinian homes and attacked Israeli Border Police, thwarting a coordinated return of displaced residents and injuring three officers. Concurrently, Israeli National Missions Minister Orit Strock announced plans to expand settlement construction into Areas A and B despite new international trade bans. In Washington, the United States Senate rejected a measure seeking formal investigations into settler violence and the deaths of American citizens in the territory. World news | The Guardian · 29 Sep 2026US Senate blocks resolution demanding accountability over Israeli violence in West BankNews from Israel · 29 Sep 2026Night of rage in Samaria: Over 100 Jewish rioters clash with Israeli security forcesJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 29 Sep 2026WATCH: Strock says Israel will establish settlements across West Bank Areas A, B as sanctions mount
Diplomatic Recriminations
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani publicly condemned Israeli conduct in Gaza, labeling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responsible for war crimes while defending Doha's mediation record. The statements reflect deepening strain between Israeli leadership and Gulf interlocutors even as informal security contacts persist. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 29 Sep 2026Qatari PM: Netanyahu 'war criminal,' rejects claims that Doha funded Hamas military operationsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 29 Sep 2026‘Nothing is justifying this’: Qatar’s PM slams Israel’s atrocities in Gaza
Assessment
Targeted eliminations of Hamas leadership and localized border friction sustain high operational readiness across fronts without triggering immediate regional escalation.
BOTTOM LINE // Targeted Israeli strikes eliminate senior Hamas commanders in Gaza while settler violence in the West Bank and Syrian perimeter interdictions maintain critical tension.
- 2026-09-28
IDF strikes Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon after explosive drone attack on troops
The IDF targeted Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon following a drone attack on Israeli soldiers in the Security Zone, marking a direct breach of the ceasefire framework. Strikes included weapons depots and drone-launching infrastructure, with IDF confirming commitment to the Israel-Lebanon agreement despite the action.
- 2026-09-26
Israeli forces strike Hamas financial network, killing 16 operatives
The IDF and Shin Bet disrupted Hamas financial networks, killing 16 key operatives managing over $1 billion in transfers via Turkey and Gaza.
- 2026-09-24
Israel reduces ground forces in southern Lebanon to six brigades
The Israel Defense Forces reduced active ground formations deployed in southern Lebanon from eight brigades to six.
4 more
- 2026-09-15
Israel establishes kill zone along southern Lebanon front
The Israeli Northern Command established a kill zone separating Israeli-controlled territory from Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 67.6/100 as of 1 January 1970 (active war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 67.6/100 — active war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.