← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian ballistic missile and drone barrages struck targets across Ukraine, killing at least nine civilians and damaging energy and municipal infrastructure.
- Ukrainian forces conducted deep drone strikes against a Russian oil refinery, military depots, air defense assets, and logistical facilities.
- Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly stated that Russian forces are utilizing North Korean-supplied ballistic missiles in ongoing bombardment campaigns.
- Russian attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea port facilities reportedly raised Ukrainian grain logistics costs by $50 per metric ton.
- Ukraine and European partners are accelerating efforts to secure additional Patriot air defense systems ahead of expected winter strike campaigns.
The Russia-Ukraine war theater remains in a state of active, high-intensity conflict defined by sustained combat along the front lines and reciprocal long-range aerial bombardment. Both belligerents continue to employ advanced strike capabilities against strategic and economic targets, maintaining severe pressure on military capacity and civilian infrastructure.
Military developments over the reporting period were highlighted by heavy Russian ballistic missile and drone attacks hitting Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, resulting in civilian casualties. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces expanded deep-strike operations using long-range drones to hit Russian oil refineries over 1,500 kilometers from the border, alongside military supply depots and air defense assets.
Diplomatic and political tracks remain constrained, with minimal momentum toward a comprehensive ceasefire. While multilateral discussions continue regarding post-settlement security architectures and European Union integration steps, the operational focus remains dominated by third-party military assistance, including reported Russian integration of North Korean missile systems and Ukrainian acquisition of Western air defense assets.
Broader context reflects a deepening economic and operational war of attrition. Russian targeting of Ukrainian port and energy infrastructure continues to destabilize agricultural logistics and grid stability, while European nations face growing pressure to replenish depleted air defense interceptor stockpiles before winter.
Reciprocal long-range strikes and attritional frontline dynamics indicate no immediate de-escalation in operational intensity. Assessment: The theater will sustain high-intensity combat and widespread aerial attacks as both parties seek to degrade opposing strategic assets.
- 2026-08-11
Reciprocal long-range missile and drone strikes inflict casualties and hit energy and military targets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are Russia and Ukraine at war?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95/100 as of 1 January 1970 (war), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95/100 — war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
This run predates the split into war and war-risk indices; its number was a single tension score and is labelled as what it was then.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.