← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian forces conducted a long-range drone strike against a major Russian oil refinery 1,300 kilometers from the border.
- Ukraine reportedly proposed a Black Sea truce to cease attacks on commercial shipping amid renewed food security concerns.
- Russian aerial bombardment continued across Ukrainian cities, including a strike on Kramatorsk that caused civilian casualties.
- European diplomats reportedly suggested involving Brazil as an intermediary for potential future negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
- Poland is evaluating the potential transfer of MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine in exchange for Ukrainian drone technology.
The Russia-Ukraine war remains in a state of full-scale interstate conflict characterized by attritional frontline engagements and expanding long-range air campaigns. Neither side has established conditions for a decisive operational breakthrough, leading to sustained reciprocal strikes against energy infrastructure and logistics centers alongside ongoing positional ground combat.
Operational developments over the reporting period were highlighted by Ukraine's continued deep-strike campaign inside Russian territory, including a drone attack targeting a Gazprom oil refinery located 1,300 kilometers from Ukrainian-controlled territory. Concurrently, Russian forces maintained routine aerial bombardment across Ukrainian urban areas, including reported cluster-munition and guided aerial-bomb strikes in Kyiv and Donetsk regions.
On the diplomatic track, reports indicate Ukraine has floated a localized maritime truce proposal covering the Black Sea to protect commercial shipping and stabilize global agricultural trade routes. Concurrently, European actors are reportedly considering third-party mediation options, including potential roles for Brazil, although no comprehensive ceasefire talks are currently active.
The broader strategic environment remains defined by ongoing international military assistance and war-economy dynamics. Discussions regarding bilateral hardware exchanges persist, exemplified by potential Polish jet transfers, while long-range attacks on energy and export infrastructure continue to impact international commodity markets.
The operational posture of both belligerents indicates a commitment to sustained attritional pressure and long-range targeting through the short term. Assessment: High-intensity strike warfare and dynamic frontline friction will continue without operational pause as diplomatic feelers remain focused on narrow sectoral arrangements.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
3 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine submits new peace proposals to US envoys as Russian strikes continue across Ukraine.
- 2026-08-11
Reciprocal long-range missile and drone strikes inflict casualties and hit energy and military targets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are Russia and Ukraine at war?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95/100 as of 1 January 1970 (war), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95/100 — war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
This run predates the split into war and war-risk indices; its number was a single tension score and is labelled as what it was then.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.