← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
▲ STALE FEED — last run failed validation for this theater; showing most recent verified entry.
- Ukraine launched a massive drone attack across Russia targeting military plants in Rostov, logistics hubs, and the Moscow region.
- Russian missile and drone strikes hit a Kryvyi Rih steel plant, killing two workers, and caused damage in Kyiv.
- Ukrainian strikes targeted a Russian military-industrial plant in Rostov Region producing rocket fuel for Smerch and Tornado-S launchers.
- The Kremlin rejected proposals for a limited Black Sea ceasefire, keeping maritime diplomatic efforts stalled.
- President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated Russia launched over 1,550 drones and 62 missiles at Ukraine over the past week.
Russia and Ukraine remain engaged in full-scale interstate war across active fronts in eastern Ukraine and through nationwide strategic aerial campaigns. Fighting continues along the contact line while both belligerents conduct long-range missile and drone attacks against rear military and industrial assets.
Ukrainian forces launched hundreds of drones targeting Russian military-industrial infrastructure, including a Rostov plant producing rocket fuel for Smerch launchers, Bastion missile sites, and Moscow region targets. Russian strikes hit a Kryvyi Rih steel plant, killing two personnel, and damaged commercial areas in Kyiv using missiles and drones.
Diplomatic initiatives remain stalled following the Kremlin's explicit rejection of proposals for a limited Black Sea ceasefire. Trilateral and third-party facilitated negotiations have failed to establish operational pauses or maritime security agreements.
Strategic targeting has expanded against military-industrial plants, energy infrastructure, and logistics centers on both sides. President Zelenskyy reported Russian forces launched more than 1,550 drones and 62 missiles over seven days, while Ukrainian strikes focused on Russian supply networks and military production nodes.
Russian forces maintain ground pressure in eastern Ukraine while Ukrainian forces conduct deep asymmetric strikes against Russian rear infrastructure. Assessment: High-intensity combat operations and reciprocal long-range aerial attacks will persist without near-term diplomatic or operational pauses.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
3 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine submits new peace proposals to US envoys as Russian strikes continue across Ukraine.
- 2026-08-11
Reciprocal long-range missile and drone strikes inflict casualties and hit energy and military targets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94.4/100 as of 1 January 1970 (mass war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94.4/100 — mass war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.