← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian ballistic missile and drone attacks struck industrial and residential targets across Dnipro, Kyiv, Odesa, and Zhytomyr, killing at least eight people. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill at least 8, wound 37 across Ukraine, as ballistic strike hits major Dnipro industrial plantKyiv Post · 22 Sep 2026Russian Ballistic Strikes Hit Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih and Pavlohrad, 3 WoundedThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Russian jet-powered drones strike Kyiv, injuring 8
- Ukrainian drones struck the Kuibyshev oil refinery in Samara Oblast, igniting fires at the facility. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes Russian drone storage and launch site in Oryol Oblast, damages 5 launchersMeduza.io · 22 Sep 2026Ukrainian drones attack Samara as fire is reported at Kuybyshev oil refinery, one of the Volga region’s largest
- Ukrainian forces hit a Russian drone storage and launch base near Tsymbulova in Oryol Oblast, damaging five launchers. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes Russian drone storage and launch site in Oryol Oblast, damages 5 launchers
- Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking 300 Russian shadow fleet oil tankers across the Black Sea and Sea of Azov over eleven weeks. Kyiv Post · 22 Sep 2026Ukraine's Drone Forces Hit 300 Russian Shadow Fleet Tankers in 3 Months
- United States President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met in New York to discuss peace frameworks, refinery strikes, and air-defense production. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 22 Sep 2026Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready for energy truce with Russia after Trump talksMeduza.io · 22 Sep 2026Trump says talks in NYC with Zelensky will cover Russia–Ukraine negotiations and Patriot interceptor production in Ukraine
Long-Range Strikes and Target Asymmetry
Russian forces conducted combined missile and drone assaults targeting Ukrainian urban centers, logistical hubs, and civilian production facilities. Russian ballistic strikes disabled the Interpipe industrial plant in Dnipro, killing four workers, while separate attacks struck residential quarters in Kyiv, commercial warehouses in Odesa, and a Kromberg & Schubert automotive component factory in Zhytomyr. In response to recurring Russian aerial bombardment of population centers, Ukrainian long-range strikes focused on the military logistics and refining infrastructure funding Moscow's invasion, causing fires at Rosneft's Kuibyshev refinery in Samara and damaging five drone launchers at a launch facility in Tsymbulova, Oryol Oblast. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill at least 8, wound 37 across Ukraine, as ballistic strike hits major Dnipro industrial plantThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes Russian drone storage and launch site in Oryol Oblast, damages 5 launchersKyiv Post · 22 Sep 2026Russian Ballistic Strikes Hit Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih and Pavlohrad, 3 Wounded
Maritime and Logistics Campaigns
Ukraine expanded its campaign against Russian maritime sanctions evasion, with the Unmanned Systems Forces claiming 300 drone strikes against shadow-fleet oil tankers in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov over eleven weeks under Operation MoLoChKa. The maritime operations aim to disrupt revenue streams funding Russian offensive operations alongside deep strikes on domestic refining capacity, which Ukraine's General Staff reported has reduced total Russian refining capacity by 45 percent. Kyiv Post · 22 Sep 2026Ukraine's Drone Forces Hit 300 Russian Shadow Fleet Tankers in 3 MonthsKyiv Post · 21 Sep 2026Moscow Oil Refinery Halts Crude Processing After Sunday’s Drone StrikeThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 21 Sep 2026Ukraine war latest: Russia's oil refining capacity falls as damage from Moscow strikes sets in
Diplomatic Engagement and Sanctions Disputes
On the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, President Volodymyr Zelensky held bilateral meetings with United States President Donald Trump, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Discussions addressed bilateral energy ceasefire concepts, winter air-defense provisions, and Ukrainian requests to co-produce Patriot ballistic missile interceptors domestically. Concurrently, Zelensky publicly protested European Union negotiations spearheaded by France and Slovakia to remove Russian oligarchs Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from sanctions lists. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 22 Sep 2026Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready for energy truce with Russia after Trump talksKyiv Post · 22 Sep 2026Zelensky Condemns Delistings of Russian Oligarchs in Western SanctionsKyiv Post · 22 Sep 2026Zelensky, UK PM Burnham Meet in New York as Kyiv Warns Russia Preparing Massive Attack
Defense Co-production and Regional Posturing
The United States Army finalized a $10.64 million procurement contract for Ukrainian-designed Skyeton Raybird reconnaissance drones for intelligence operations. Regionally, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha formally accused Belarus of enabling Russian strike drone operations via ground signal relays. Meanwhile, Russia's Federal Security Service enacted temporary civilian movement and waterway restrictions along the Estonian border in Leningrad Oblast's Kingisepp and Slantsy districts. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 22 Sep 2026Russia imposes restrictions near Estonian border amid mobilization concernsKyiv Post · 22 Sep 2026Sybiha: Belarus Helps Russia Carry Out Drone Attacks on UkraineKyiv Post · 22 Sep 2026US Army Acquires Long-Range Ukrainian Surveillance Drones in $10.6m Deal
Assessment
Open interstate warfare continues across all operational domains with active Ukrainian counter-refinery and maritime campaigns counterbalanced by sustained Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian and industrial infrastructure.
- 2026-09-22
US President Donald Trump meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York
United States President Donald Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York to discuss peace negotiations and air defense manufacturing.
- 2026-09-21
Ukraine debuts Pelican ballistic missile in strikes on Russian facilities
Ukrainian long-range strikes deployed the new Pelican ballistic missile against industrial and oil refining facilities in Russia's Moscow and Voronezh regions.
- 2026-09-16
Ukrainian drone strike kills Russian Major General Anton Grunis
A Ukrainian drone strike killed Russian Major General Anton Grunis in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
4 more
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95.6/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95.6/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.