← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Yemen War & Houthi Attacks
Saudi – Houthis conflict
- Ansar Allah claimed a drone strike targeting a Saudi Aramco petroleum refinery in Jazan, marking reported repeated attacks on the energy facility.
- Yemeni military officials reported Houthi forces utilized Iranian-made Fateh-110 ballistic missiles in recent strikes on Mokha.
- Government-aligned Yemeni forces reported shooting down a Houthi reconnaissance drone over Hadramout governorate.
- Houthi forces claimed additional missile and drone strikes against Saudi naval vessels operating in the Red Sea.
- United Nations officials warned that renewed Houthi cross-border attacks against Saudi Arabia risk triggering large-scale conflict in Yemen.
Cross-border military strikes between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia escalated alongside internal Yemeni combat. On 18 August 2026, Ansar Allah claimed a drone attack against a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan.
Operational activity expanded across multiple fronts in Yemen and the Red Sea. In addition to the Jazan attack claim, Yemeni military authorities reported that Houthi forces launched Iranian-made Fateh-110 ballistic missiles toward Mokha, while government air defenses downed a Houthi drone over Hadramout. Houthi representatives also claimed strikes against Saudi naval vessels off the western coast, and artillery shelling wounded two civilians in Al-Dhalea governorate.
Diplomatic channels remain stalled as United Nations mediators warned against a return to full-scale war. UN officials stated that renewed Houthi cross-border strikes against Saudi targets jeopardize post-2022 de-escalation gains. No formal negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah produced agreements during this period.
The conflict remains driven by Houthi maritime operations and cross-border military capabilities. The deployment of Iranian-origin weapon systems, including Fateh-110 ballistic missiles and long-range attack drones, enables Houthi forces to target energy infrastructure and Red Sea shipping lanes. Unresolved governance disputes and the formal expiry of the 2022 UN truce leave border sectors vulnerable to renewed hostilities.
Targeted strikes on Saudi energy facilities and naval vessels increase the likelihood of direct coalition military responses. Assessment: Persistent Houthi cross-border drone strikes and Red Sea attacks significantly heighten the risk of renewed large-scale armed conflict.
- 2026-08-17
Ansar Allah claims missile strikes on Saudi military vessels off Mocha.
Houthi forces claimed targeting a Saudi military landing ship and four patrol craft with ballistic missiles and drones off the coast of Mocha. Yemeni army sources reported five ballistic missiles launched toward Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea shipping lanes.
- 2026-08-15
Houthi strikes on Mokha port kill eight and shut down maritime operations
Houthi missile and drone strikes targeted Mokha port, killing eight people and forcing authorities to suspend all maritime operations.
- 2026-08-12
Houthi forces launch fatal Red Sea ship attack and sustain missile strikes on Mokha
A Houthi attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea killed six crew members, including three Pakistani nationals and one Indonesian. Concurrently, Houthi forces launched ten missiles and four drones targeting Yemen's western coast and Mokha port over four consecutive days.
1 more
- 2026-08-11
Fatal Houthi missile strike on commercial vessel near Bab el-Mandeb kills three crew members.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war in Yemen?
Not a declared war between states. The armed confrontation is between the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government, and it reaches shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. Fighting has continued through repeated truces without a settlement. Legally a non-international armed conflict — the Houthis against Yemen's government — internationalized by Saudi and Emirati involvement. The index reads 50/100 as of 1 January 1970 (limited armed conflict); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Saudi and Houthis situation right now?
The index reads 50/100 — limited armed conflict. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Saudi and Houthis risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.