← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian missile strikes killed ten civilians in a Ukrainian village, while Ukrainian forces launched a heavy drone attack against targets in the Moscow region.
- A drone explosion near transport infrastructure for Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant staff killed one person and injured 15 others.
- Moscow issued formal warnings to the United Kingdom, alleging British-supplied drones used in deep strikes make London a direct party to the war.
- Kremlin spokespersons explicitly rejected proposals for a ceasefire or conflict freeze along existing front lines.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy nominated Khmara to serve as Defense Minister in a government leadership adjustment.
The Russia-Ukraine war remains an active, high-intensity interstate conflict characterized by relentless attritional combat along the front lines and expanding long-range strike campaigns across both territories.
Military operations this period featured a Ukrainian drone salvo targeting the Moscow region alongside Russian missile strikes that killed ten civilians in a Ukrainian village. A drone detonation near transport infrastructure serving Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant personnel resulted in one death and 15 injuries, underscoring persistent physical hazards around nuclear installations.
On the political track, Moscow warned the United Kingdom of unspecified consequences regarding Ukrainian long-range strikes executed with British-supplied drones, a claim rejected by British ministers who reaffirmed support for Kyiv. In Moscow, Kremlin officials publicly ruled out any prospective ceasefire or conflict freeze based on current front lines, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy formally nominated Khmara as Ukraine's new Defense Minister.
The broader drivers of the conflict remain Ukraine's persistent long-range targeting of Russian military, energy, and supply assets paired with Russia's continuous missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian areas. Intelligence reports also indicate Russian forces face localized manpower shortages, adapting tactics to small-unit three-to-four-person assault teams ahead of winter operations.
Assessment: Active combat operations, long-range aerial bombardment, and uncompromising diplomatic stances indicate the war will persist in a high-intensity phase without near-term prospects for a negotiated pause.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
3 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine submits new peace proposals to US envoys as Russian strikes continue across Ukraine.
- 2026-08-11
Reciprocal long-range missile and drone strikes inflict casualties and hit energy and military targets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 87/100 as of 1 January 1970 (mass war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 87/100 — mass war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.