← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Yemen War & Houthi Attacks
Saudi – Houthis conflict
- Yemeni government warplanes conducted 15 airstrikes targeting Ansar Allah combat positions and vehicles across Taiz and Hodeidah governorates. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 5 Sep 2026Yemen government launches own air attacks on Houthis: What that meansAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 4 Sep 2026Yemen targets Houthi positions with 15 airstrikes in Taiz, Al-Hudaydah provinces
- Ansar Allah forces launched a ballistic missile strike targeting passenger buses on the Heijah al-Abad road in Taiz governorate. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 5 Sep 20264 killed, 9 wounded in Houthi missile attack in Yemen's TaizAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 5 Sep 2026At least four civilians killed in Houthi missile strike near Yemen’s TaizYemen Online · 5 Sep 2026[Yemen: Deadly Houthi Strike on Bus Between Aden , Taiz
- Yemeni government forces recaptured the al-Khazan and al-Makahna hills in Jabal Habashi district from Ansar Allah. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 5 Sep 2026Government forces recapture 'strategic' positions from Houthis in western Yemen, army saysAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 4 Sep 2026Yemen’s army says recaptured key territory as clashes with Houthis continue
- Ansar Allah artillery struck a civilian restaurant at the Mokha junction in western Taiz governorate. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 4 Sep 2026Civilian casualties reported in Houthi ballistic missile strike on restaurant in western YemenYemen Online · 4 Sep 2026[Yemen: Over 120 Killed in Houthi-Gov't Clashes
- Yemeni government air defense forces shot down two Ansar Allah attack drones over western Taiz governorate. Yemen Online · 4 Sep 2026[Yemen : Houthi Commander Killed, Drones Downed in Western Taiz Clashes
Coastal Ground Offensive
Ansar Allah forces launched a major ground push in western Taiz and southern Hodeidah to secure high ground overlooking Mokha Port and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Yemeni government forces engaged Houthi units in heavy fighting in Jabal Habashi district, recapturing al-Khazan and al-Makahna hills. The clashes killed Houthi commander Mohammed Harith Ali Mutlaq al-Alawi and over 120 combatants across both sides, halting immediate Houthi advances toward the Red Sea coast. World news | The Guardian · 5 Sep 2026Civilians among at least 60 killed in Yemen as ground fighting escalatesAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 5 Sep 2026At least four civilians killed in Houthi missile strike near Yemen’s TaizAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 4 Sep 2026Yemen’s army says recaptured key territory as clashes with Houthis continue
Government Air Campaign
Yemeni government aircraft carried out 15 airstrikes targeting Ansar Allah positions, troop gatherings, and vehicles in Hays, al-Kadha, and Maqbanah. This air deployment provided direct support to government ground troops attempting to hold coastal transport corridors. The strikes represent the first offensive use of government airpower since coastal hostilities resumed. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 4 Sep 2026Yemeni warplanes strike Houthi positions in Taiz for 1st time since July escalation: ArmyAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 5 Sep 2026Yemen government launches own air attacks on Houthis: What that meansAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 4 Sep 2026Yemen targets Houthi positions with 15 airstrikes in Taiz, Al-Hudaydah provinces
Civilian Corridor Targeting
Ansar Allah targeted civilian transit routes and public venues, firing a ballistic missile at passenger buses on the Heijah al-Abad road and shelling a restaurant near the Mokha junction. These strikes on critical transit infrastructure linking Taiz to Lahj and Aden killed at least seven civilians and wounded over a dozen others. The deliberate targeting of transport corridors forced more than 1,600 families to flee their homes in Taiz and Hodeidah. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 5 Sep 20264 killed, 9 wounded in Houthi missile attack in Yemen's TaizAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 5 Sep 2026At least four civilians killed in Houthi missile strike near Yemen’s TaizYemen Online · 5 Sep 2026[Yemen: Deadly Houthi Strike on Bus Between Aden , Taiz
Gulf Diplomatic Summits
Saudi Arabia announced it will host the second summit between Gulf Cooperation Council and European Union leaders in Riyadh on October 24. Co-chaired by European Council President António Costa, the meeting aims to expand political and economic ties across the two regions. https://saudigazette.com.sa · 4 Sep 2026Saudi Arabia to host second EU-GCC Summit on Oct. 24
Assessment
Broadening ground battles combined with government airstrikes and attacks on civilian transit corridors bring Yemen to its highest risk of all-out renewed war since 2022.
- 2026-09-05
Yemeni government warplanes conduct airstrikes against Ansar Allah positions in Taiz and Hodeidah.
Yemeni government aircraft executed 15 airstrikes targeting Ansar Allah troop concentrations, vehicles, and combat positions in Hays, al-Kadha, and Maqbanah. The operations mark the first deployment of government airpower since coastal fighting escalated.
- 2026-09-02
Ansar Allah establishes military cooperation pact with al-Shabaab
Reports revealed structured cooperation between Ansar Allah and Somalia's al-Shabaab militia involving drone technology transfers and fighter training across the Gulf of Aden.
- 2026-09-01
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan activate Makkah Joint Defense Agreement
The three nations established a General Secretariat in Riyadh to operationalize the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement.
4 more
- 2026-08-24
Houthi ballistic missile damages commercial tanker off Yanbu
Ansar Allah fired a ballistic missile that struck a commercial tanker 63 nautical miles west of Yanbu, igniting a shipboard fire.
- 2026-08-19
Ansar Allah launches drone strikes targeting the Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jizan.
On August 18, 2026, Houthi forces targeted Saudi Aramco's oil refinery facility in Jizan with drones. The strike represents a direct attack on Saudi energy infrastructure amid renewed cross-border hostilities.
- 2026-08-17
Ansar Allah claims missile strikes on Saudi military vessels off Mocha.
Houthi forces claimed targeting a Saudi military landing ship and four patrol craft with ballistic missiles and drones off the coast of Mocha. Yemeni army sources reported five ballistic missiles launched toward Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea shipping lanes.
- 2026-08-15
Houthi strikes on Mokha port kill eight and shut down maritime operations
Houthi missile and drone strikes targeted Mokha port, killing eight people and forcing authorities to suspend all maritime operations.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war in Yemen?
Not a declared war between states. The armed confrontation is between the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government, and it reaches shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. Fighting has continued through repeated truces without a settlement. Legally a non-international armed conflict — the Houthis against Yemen's government — internationalized by Saudi and Emirati involvement. The index reads 76/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Saudi and Houthis situation right now?
The index reads 76/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Saudi and Houthis risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.