← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian forces launched ballistic missiles and 167 drones across 23 Ukrainian locations after Moscow rejected a proposed four-day ceasefire. Ukrainska Pravda · 5 Sep 2026Russian forces attack Ukraine with missiles and drones, strikes recorded at 23 locationsKyiv Post · 5 Sep 2026Combat Continues as Russia Rejects CeasefireThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 5 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill 7, injure 51 over past day across Ukraine as Moscow rejects ceasefire
- A Russian ballistic missile strike on the Kametstal steel plant in Kamianske killed five workers. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 5 Sep 2026Russia rejects truce, kills 4 in attack on Dnipropetrovsk OblastUkrainska Pravda · 5 Sep 2026Second this month: another Metinvest steel plant halts production after Russian strike – photosUkrinform · 5 Sep 2026Kametstal plant halts operations following Russian missile attack
- A Russian drone struck the Security Service of Ukraine headquarters in central Kyiv. World news | The Guardian · 4 Sep 2026Russia strikes Ukraine intelligence HQ in ‘major escalation’The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 4 Sep 2026Ukraine war latest: Russia strikes SBU headquarters in daytime attack on Kyiv, injures at least 12
- Ukrainian forces targeted Russian military drone coordination infrastructure in Bryansk Oblast. Kyiv Post · 5 Sep 2026Ukrainian Forces Strike Drone Infrastructure in Bryansk
- Russian drones attacked a passenger train in Chornobaivka, injuring a railway worker. Kyiv Post · 5 Sep 2026Russian Drone Strikes Wound 7 Across Three Ukrainian RegionsUkrinform · 5 Sep 2026Railway worker injured in Russian drone attack on passenger train in Kherson region
Ceasefire Rejection and Air Attacks
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered a temporary military pause from 5 to 8 September for a visit by United States envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but Russian President Vladimir Putin ignored the proposal. Russian forces conducted overnight strikes with Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 167 drones across 23 Ukrainian locations, hitting targets in Kamianske, Mykolaiv, and Boryspil. Ukrainska Pravda · 5 Sep 2026Russian forces attack Ukraine with missiles and drones, strikes recorded at 23 locationsKyiv Post · 5 Sep 2026Combat Continues as Russia Rejects CeasefireThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 5 Sep 2026Russia rejects truce, kills 4 in attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
Target Class Asymmetry
Russian strikes targeted Ukrainian state infrastructure, civilian industrial plants, and transit, hitting the Security Service of Ukraine headquarters in central Kyiv and disabling the Kametstal steel plant in Kamianske. Ukrainian strikes targeted Russian military operational assets, hitting a Shahed drone mesh-network repeater in Zlynka, a radar station in Kartushyn, and an electronic warfare complex near Pohar in Bryansk Oblast. Kyiv Post · 5 Sep 2026Ukrainian Forces Strike Drone Infrastructure in BryanskWorld news | The Guardian · 4 Sep 2026Russia strikes Ukraine intelligence HQ in ‘major escalation’Ukrainska Pravda · 5 Sep 2026Second this month: another Metinvest steel plant halts production after Russian strike – photos
Civilian Alert System Adaptations
Continuous Russian drone raids over Kyiv prompted Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi to introduce a two-tier air raid alert system to reduce daily municipal disruption. The updated protocol uses yellow alerts for incoming Russian drone waves and red alerts for incoming ballistic missiles or mass aerial attacks. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 4 Sep 2026Russian non-stop drone raids on Kyiv continue as 6 killed, 56 injured across Ukraine in last 24 hoursKyiv Post · 4 Sep 2026Ukraine to Introduce Two-Level Air Raid Alert System as Drone Attacks Disrupt Daily LifeThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 4 Sep 2026'Hanging by a thread' — Kyiv under psychological siege amid ceaseless strikes
Assessment
Open interstate combat continues with Russian forces conducting sustained strikes on Ukrainian government, urban, and industrial infrastructure while Ukrainian forces direct targeted attacks against Russian military drone coordination assets.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.