← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Yemen War & Houthi Attacks
Saudi – Houthis conflict
- Ansar Allah launched two ballistic missiles targeting Aden International Airport in southern Yemen. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 7 Oct 20262 Houthi missiles target Aden International Airport in southern Yemen
- Saudi air defenses intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile targeting Riyadh after tracking its launch platform in Sanaa. https://saudigazette.com.sa · 7 Oct 2026Coalition intercepts Houthi ballistic missile north of Riyadh, tracks launch site in Sanaa
- Houthi projectile and drone strikes on Jazan and Najran airports injured three civilians in southwestern Saudi Arabia. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 6 Oct 2026UK Embassy issues security alert over missile, drone attacks in Saudi Arabiataxonomy/term/2 · 6 Oct 2026Saudi Civil Aviation Authority: Three People Injured in Attacks on Jazan and Najran Airports
- Yemeni government forces launched an offensive in Taiz governorate to capture the strategic Al-Wazi’iyah district from Houthi control. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 6 Oct 2026Yemeni forces launch offensive to retake Houthi-held al-Waziiya in TaizAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 6 Oct 2026Yemeni government forces launch operation against Houthis to seize Al-Wazi’iyah in Taiz
- Houthi artillery shelling on residential villages in Taiz governorate killed six civilians and wounded four others. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 6 Oct 20266 civilians killed, 4 injured in Houthi shelling south of Taiz, Yemen: State media
Red Sea Coastal Push
Yemeni government forces expanded operations under the Dawn of Yemen offensive into Taiz governorate, advancing against Houthi forces in the mountainous Al-Wazi’iyah district. Government troops secured peaks in Jabal Habashi and engaged Houthi units across Al-Aqroud and Al-Arbaeen fronts to protect coastal access toward Mokha and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Meanwhile, Houthi artillery shelling struck civilian homes in Al-Mawasit and Al-Misrakh, killing six civilians. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 6 Oct 20266 civilians killed, 4 injured in Houthi shelling south of Taiz, Yemen: State mediaYemen Online · 6 Oct 2026[Around 100 Houthi Fighters Killed in ‘Dawn of Yemen’ Offensive Across Taiz FrontsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 6 Oct 2026Yemeni forces launch offensive to retake Houthi-held al-Waziiya in Taiz
Cross-Border Air Operations
Ansar Allah fired ballistic missiles toward Riyadh, Khamis Mushait, and civil airports in Jazan and Najran, injuring three people at Saudi airport facilities. Saudi air defense systems intercepted the long-range projectile targeting Riyadh after coalition systems tracked its Sanaa launch site. In Yemen, Ansar Allah launched two ballistic missiles at Aden International Airport, directly targeting the government-held interim capital's primary aviation hub. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 6 Oct 2026UK Embassy issues security alert over missile, drone attacks in Saudi Arabiahttps://saudigazette.com.sa · 7 Oct 2026Coalition intercepts Houthi ballistic missile north of Riyadh, tracks launch site in SanaaAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 7 Oct 20262 Houthi missiles target Aden International Airport in southern Yemen
Coalition Defense Measures
Saudi-led coalition naval forces struck Houthi weapons storage facilities, explosive boats, and naval mines in Hodeidah governorate to prevent Red Sea maritime attacks. Coalition aircraft destroyed a missile storage depot housing 20 ballistic missiles in Saada and neutralized launch platforms around Sanaa. Implementation of the Makkah defense pact continues as Turkey prepares parliamentary ratification required before deploying military forces alongside Pakistani units to Saudi Arabia. https://saudigazette.com.sa · 7 Oct 2026Coalition intercepts Houthi ballistic missile north of Riyadh, tracks launch site in Sanaahttps://saudigazette.com.sa · 5 Oct 2026Coalition naval forces strike Houthi targets in Hodeidah, thwart planned Red Sea attacksThe National · 6 Oct 2026How quickly could Turkey send military forces to back Saudi Arabia?
Assessment
Sustained high-intensity ground counteroffensives, coalition strikes on missile depots, and Houthi ballistic missile launches targeting civilian airports confirm an active period of full-scale warfare across Yemen and the border region.
BOTTOM LINE // Full-scale military operations persist as Yemeni government forces advance in Taiz and Ansar Allah targets airports in Saudi Arabia and Aden.
ISW assesses that Houthi control of al Turbah will likely severely constrain Yemeni government-aligned forces' ability to reinforce and resupply front-line positions across Taiz Governorate. Institute for the Study of War · 4 Oct 2026Iran Update October 4 2026
- 2026-10-07
Ansar Allah launched two ballistic missiles targeting Aden International Airport.
Two ballistic missiles fired by Ansar Allah targeted Aden International Airport in southern Yemen. The strike directly targeted the primary civil aviation facility in the government-held interim capital.
- 2026-10-06
Turkey and Pakistan agreed to deploy troops to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca pact.
Following talks in Riyadh, Turkey and Pakistan activated collective defense commitments under the Mecca pact to reinforce Saudi Arabia against Houthi strikes.
- 2026-10-05
Yemen's presidential council launched a nationwide offensive to recapture all Houthi-held territory.
Presidential Leadership Council Chairman Rashad al-Alimi ordered armed formations on Sunday to execute plans to reclaim all areas under Ansar Allah control. The Saudi-led coalition formally pledged comprehensive operational and aerial support to back the campaign.
4 more
- 2026-10-04
Ansar Allah claimed missile and drone strikes on an Aramco refinery in Riyadh.
Houthi forces stated they targeted an Aramco oil installation south of Riyadh with ballistic missiles and unmanned aircraft, where smoke was observed rising from the complex. Coalition spokesmen rejected the claim as misleading, while Saudi officials did not publicly confirm the cause of the fire.
- 2026-10-03
Saudi authorities reported a resident injured by intercepted Houthi ballistic missile debris in Asir.
Saudi air defense units intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile over Ahad Rafidah in Asir province, where falling fragments injured one civilian and damaged a prayer room and multiple vehicles.
- 2026-10-03
A Houthi projectile struck a school in Saudi Arabia's southern city of Najran.
Saudi Civil Defense responded after a Houthi projectile hit a school in Najran near the Yemeni border. The strike occurred alongside separate ballistic missile and drone interceptions across southern Saudi Arabia.
- 2026-10-02
A Houthi drone struck a power station serving the Prophet's Mosque in Medina.
The attack damaged an electrical transformer at the Taiba distribution facility in Medina without disrupting the municipal power grid. Regional governments condemned the strike as cross-border missile and drone exchanges intensified.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war in Yemen?
Not a declared war between states. The armed confrontation is between the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government, and it reaches shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. Fighting has continued through repeated truces without a settlement. Legally a non-international armed conflict — the Houthis against Yemen's government — internationalized by Saudi and Emirati involvement. The index reads 85.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (mass war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Saudi and Houthis situation right now?
The index reads 85.7/100 — mass war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Saudi and Houthis risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.